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April 2018

Mathematical epidemiology: Stochastic models and their statistical calibration

Listed as Applied Mathematics Topic A in the Course Planner.

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Mathematical models are increasingly used to inform governmental policy-makers on issues that threaten human health or which have an adverse impact on the economy. It is this real-world success combined with the wide variety of interesting mathematical problems which arise that makes mathematical epidemiology one of the most exciting topics in applied mathematics. During the summer school, you will be introduced to mathematical epidemiology and some fundamental theory required for studying and parametrising stochastic models of infection dynamics, which will provide an ideal basis for addressing key research questions in this area; several such questions will be introduced and explored in this course.



Topics: An introduction to mathematical epidemiology Discrete-time and continuous-time discrete-state stochastic infection models Numerical methods for studying stochastic infection models: EXPOKIT, transforms and their inversion Methods for simulating stochastic infection models: classical (Gillespie) algorithm, more efficient exact and approximate algorithms Methods for parameterising stochastic infection models: frequentist approaches, Bayesian approaches, approximate Bayesian computation Optimal observation of stochastic infection models

Joshua Ross
Lecturer for this course

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