
Search the School of Mathematical SciencesPeople matching "Modelling Directionality in Stationary Geophysical"Courses matching "Modelling Directionality in Stationary Geophysical" 
Financial Modelling: Tools and Techniques The growth of the range of financial products that are traded on financial markets or are available at other financial institutions, is a notable feature of the finance industry. A major factor contributing to this growth has been the development of sophisticated methods to price these products. The significance to the finance industry of developing a method for pricing options (financial derivatives) was recognized by the awarding of the Nobel Prize in Economics to Myron Scholes and Robert Merton in 1997. The mathematics upon which their method is built is stochastic calculus in continuous time. Binomial lattice type models provide another approach for pricing options. These models are formulated in discrete time and the examination of their structure and application in various financial settings takes place in a mathematical context that is less technically demanding than when time is continuous. This course discusses the binomial framework, shows how discretetime models currently used in the financial industry are formulated within this framework and uses the models to compute prices and construct hedges to manage financial risk. Spreadsheets are used to facilitate computations where appropriate. Topics covered are: The noarbitrage assumption for financial markets; noarbitrage inequalities; formulation of the onestep binomial model; basic pricing formula; the CoxRossRubinstein (CRR) model; application to European style options, exchange rates and interest rates; formulation of the nstep binomial model; backward induction formula; forward induction formula; nstep CRR model; relationship to BlackScholes; forward and future contracts; exotic options; path dependent options; implied volatility trees; implied binomial trees; interest rate models; hedging; real options; implementing the models using EXCEL spreadsheets.
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Modelling and Simulation of Stochastic Systems The course provides students with the skills to analyse and design systems using modelling and simulation techniques. Case studies will be undertaken involving handson use of simulation packages. The application of simulation in areas such as manufacturing, telecommunications and transport will be investigated. At the end of this course, students will be capable of identifying practical situations where simulation modelling can be helpful, reporting to management on how they would undertake such a project, collecting relevant data, building and validating a model, analysing the output and reporting their findings to management. Students complete a project in groups of two or three, write a concise summary of what they have done and report their findings to the class. The project report at the end of this course should be a substantial document that is a record of a student's practical ability in simulation modelling, which can also become part of a portfolio or CV. Topics covered are: Introduction to simulation, hand simulation, introduction to a simulation package, review of basic probabilty theory, introduction to random number generation, generation of random variates, anaylsis of simulation output, variance reduction techniques and basic analytic queeing models.
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Statistical Analysis and Modelling 1 This is a first course in Statistics for mathematically inclined students. It will address the key principles underlying commonly used statistical methods such as confidence intervals, hypothesis tests, inference for means and proportions, and linear regression. It will develop a deeper mathematical understanding of these ideas, many of which will be familiar from studies in secondary school. The application of basic and more advanced statistical methods will be illustrated on a range of problems from areas such as medicine, science, technology, government, commerce and manufacturing. The use of the statistical package SPSS will be developed through a sequence of computer practicals. Topics covered will include: basic probability and random variables, fundamental distributions, inference for means and proportions, comparison of independent and paired samples, simple linear regression, diagnostics and model checking, multiple linear regression, simple factorial models, models with factors and continuous predictors.
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Statistical Modelling and Inference Statistical methods are important to all areas that rely on data including science, technology, government and commerce. To deal with the complex problems that arise in practice requires a sound understanding of fundamental statistical principles together with a range of suitable modelling techniques. Computing using a high level statistical package is also an essential element of modern statistical practice. This course provides an introduction to the principles of statistical inference and the development of linear statistical models with the statistical package R. Topics covered are: Point estimates, unbiasedness, meansquared error, confidence intervals, tests of hypotheses, power calculations, derivation of one and twosample procedures; simple linear regression, regression diagnostics, prediction; linear models, ANOVA, multiple regression, factorial experiments, analysis of covariance models, model building; likelihood based methods for estimation and testing, goodness of fit tests; sample surveys, population means, totals and proportions, simple random samples, stratified random samples. Topics covered are: point estimates, unbiasedness, meansquared error, confidence intervals, tests of hypotheses, power calculations, derivation of one and twosample procedures: simple linear regression, regression diagnostics, prediction: linear models, analysis of variance (ANOVA), multiple regression, factorial experiments, analysis of covariance models, model building; likelihoodbased methods for estimation and testing and goodnessoffit tests.
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Statistical Modelling III One of the key requirements of an applied statistician is the ability to formulate appropriate statistical models and then apply them to data in order to answer the questions of interest. Most often, such models can be seen as relating a response variable to one or more explanatory variables. For example, in a medical experiment we may seek to evaluate a new treatment by relating patient outcome to treatment received while allowing for background variables such as age, sex and disease severity. In this course, a rigorous discussion of the linear model is given and various extensions are developed. There is a strong practical emphasis and the statistical package R is used extensively. Topics covered are: the linear model, least squares estimation, generalised least squares estimation, properties of estimators, the GaussMarkov theorem; geometry of least squares, subspace formulation of linear models, orthogonal projections; regression models, factorial experiments, analysis of covariance and model formulae; regression diagnostics, residuals, influence diagnostics, transformations, BoxCox models, model selection and model building strategies; models with complex error structure, splitplot experiments; logistic regression models.
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Time Series III Time series consist of values of a variable recorded over a long period of time. Such data arise in just about every area of science and the humanities, including econometrics and finance, engineering, medicine, genetics, sociology, environmental science. What makes time series data special is the presence of dependence between observations in a series, and the fact that usually only one observation is made at any given point in time. This means that standard statistical methods are not appropriate, and special methods for statistical analysis are needed. This course provides an introduction to time series analysis using current methodology and software. Topics covered are: descriptive methods, plots, smoothing, differencing, the autocorrelation function, the correlogram and the variogram; the periodogram, estimation and elimination of trend and seasonal components; stationary processes, modelling and forecasting with autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models; spectral analysis, the fast Fourier transform, periodogram averages and other smooth estimates of the spectrum, timeinvariant linear filters; nonstationary and seasonal time series models. ARIMA processes, identification, estimation and diagnostic checking, forecasting, including extrapolation of polynomial trends, exponential smoothing, and the BoxJenkins approach.
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Events matching "Modelling Directionality in Stationary Geophysical" 
Stability of timeperiodic flows 15:10 Fri 10 Mar, 2006 :: G08 Mathematics Building University of Adelaide :: Prof. Andrew Bassom, School of Mathematics and
Statistics, University of Western Australia
Timeperiodic shear layers occur naturally in a wide
range of applications from engineering to physiology. Transition to
turbulence in such flows is of practical interest and there have been
several papers dealing with the stability of flows composed of a
steady component plus an oscillatory part with zero mean. In such
flows a possible instability mechanism is associated with the mean
component so that the stability of the flow can be examined using some
sort of perturbationtype analysis. This strategy fails when the mean
part of the flow is small compared with the oscillatory component
which, of course, includes the case when the mean part is precisely
zero.
This difficulty with analytical studies has meant that the stability
of purely oscillatory flows has relied on various numerical
methods. Until very recently such techniques have only ever predicted
that the flow is stable, even though experiments suggest that they do
become unstable at high enough speeds. In this talk I shall expand on
this discrepancy with emphasis on the particular case of the socalled
flat Stokes layer. This flow, which is generated in a deep layer of
incompressible fluid lying above a flat plate which is oscillated in
its own plane, represents one of the few exact solutions of the
NavierStokes equations. We show theoretically that the flow does
become unstable to waves which propagate relative to the basic motion
although the theory predicts that this occurs much later than has been
found in experiments. Reasons for this discrepancy are examined by
reference to calculations for oscillatory flows in pipes and
channels. Finally, we propose some new experiments that might reduce
this disagreement between the theoretical predictions of instability
and practical realisations of breakdown in oscillatory flows. 

Homological algebra and applications  a historical survey 15:10 Fri 19 May, 2006 :: G08 Mathematics Building University of Adelaide :: Prof. Amnon Neeman
Homological algebra is a curious branch of
mathematics; it is a powerful tool which has been used in many diverse
places, without any clear understanding why it should be so useful.
We will give a list of applications, proceeding chronologically: first
to topology, then to complex analysis, then to algebraic geometry,
then to commutative algebra and finally (if we have time) to
noncommutative algebra. At the end of the talk I hope to be able to
say something about the part of homological algebra on which I have
worked, and its applications. That part is derived categories. 

Watching evolution in real time; problems and potential research areas.
15:10 Fri 26 May, 2006 :: G08. Mathematics Building University of Adelaide :: Prof Alan Cooper (Federation Fellow)
Recent studies (1) have indicated problems with our
ability to use the genetic distances between species to estimate the
time since their divergence (so called molecular clocks). An
exponential decay curve has been detected in comparisons of closely
related taxa in mammal and bird groups, and rough approximations
suggest that molecular clock calculations may be problematic for the
recent past (eg <1 million years). Unfortunately, this period
encompasses a number of key evolutionary events where estimates of
timing are critical such as modern human evolutionary history, the
domestication of animals and plants, and most issues involved in
conservation biology. A solution (formulated at UA) will be briefly
outlined. A second area of active interest is the recent suggestion
(2) that mitochondrial DNA diversity does not track population size in
several groups, in contrast to standard thinking. This finding has
been interpreted as showing that mtDNA may not be evolving neutrally,
as has long been assumed.
Large ancient DNA datasets provide a means to examine these issues, by
revealing evolutionary processes in real time (3). The data also
provide a rich area for mathematical investigation as temporal
information provides information about several parameters that are
unknown in serial coalescent calculations (4). References: Ho SYW et al. Time dependency of molecular rate estimates and
systematic overestimation of recent divergence
times. Mol. Biol. Evol. 22, 15611568 (2005);
Penny D, Nature 436, 183184 (2005).
 Bazin E., et al. Population size does not influence mitochondrial
genetic diversity in animals. Science 312, 570 (2006);
EyreWalker A. Size does not matter for mitochondrial DNA,
Science 312, 537 (2006).
 Shapiro B, et al. Rise and fall of the Beringian steppe
bison. Science 306: 15611565 (2004);
Chan et al. Bayesian estimation of the timing and severity of a
population bottleneck from ancient DNA. PLoS Genetics, 2 e59
(2006).
 Drummond et al. Measurably evolving populations, Trends in
Ecol. Evol. 18, 481488 (2003);
Drummond et al. Bayesian coalescent inference of past population
dynamics from molecular sequences. Molecular Biology Evolution
22, 118592 (2005).


Mathematical modelling of multidimensional tissue growth 16:10 Tue 24 Oct, 2006 :: Benham Lecture Theatre :: Prof John King
Some simple continuummechanicsbased models for the
growth of biological tissue will be formulated and their properties
(particularly with regard to stability) described. 

Statistical convergence of sequences of complex numbers with application to Fourier series 15:10 Tue 27 Mar, 2007 :: G08 Mathematics Building University of Adelaide :: Prof. Ferenc Morics
Media...The concept of statistical convergence was introduced by Henry Fast and Hugo Steinhaus in 1951. But in fact, it was Antoni Zygmund who first proved theorems on the statistical convergence of Fourier series, using the term \"almost convergence\". A sequence $\\{x_k : k=1,2\\ldots\\}$ of complex numbers is said to be statistically convergent to $\\xi$ if for every $\\varepsilon >0$ we have $$\\lim_{n\\to \\infty} n^{1} \\{1\\le k\\le n: x_k\\xi > \\varepsilon\\} = 0.$$ We present the basic properties of statistical convergence, and extend it to multiple sequences. We also discuss the convergence behavior of Fourier series. 

Identifying the source of photographic images by analysis of JPEG quantization artifacts 15:10 Fri 27 Apr, 2007 :: G08 Mathematics Building University of Adelaide :: Dr Matthew Sorell
Media...In a forensic context, digital photographs are becoming more common as sources of evidence in criminal and civil matters. Questions that arise include identifying the make and model of a camera to assist in the gathering of physical evidence; matching photographs to a particular camera through the cameraâs unique characteristics; and determining the integrity of a digital image, including whether the image contains steganographic information. From a digital file perspective, there is also the question of whether metadata has been deliberately modified to mislead the investigator, and in the case of multiple images, whether a timeline can be established from the various timestamps within the file, imposed by the operating system or determined by other image characteristics. This talk is concerned specifically with techniques to identify the make, model series and particular source camera model given a digital image. We exploit particular characteristics of the cameraâs JPEG coder to demonstrate that such identification is possible, and that even when an image has subsequently been reprocessed, there are often sufficient residual characteristics of the original coding to at least narrow down the possible camera models of interest. 

A mathematical look at dripping honey 15:10 Fri 4 May, 2007 :: G08 Mathematics Building University of Adelaide :: Dr Yvonne Stokes :: University of Adelaide
Honey dripping from an upturned spoon is an everyday example of a flow that extends and breaks up into drops. Such flows have been of interest for over 300 years, attracting the attention of Plateau and Rayleigh among others. Theoretical understanding has, however, lagged behind experimental investigation, with major progress being made only in the last two decades, driven by industrial applications including inkjet printing, spinning of polymer and glass fibres, blowmoulding of containers, light bulbs and glass tubing, and rheological measurement by fibre extension. Albeit, the exact details of the final stages of breakup are yet to be fully resolved.
An aspect that is relatively unexplored is the evolution of drop and filament from some initial configuration, and the influence of initial conditions on the final breakup. We will consider a drop of very viscous fluid hanging beneath a solid boundary, similar to honey dripping from an upturned spoon, using methods that allow examination of development and behaviour from early time, when a drop and filament begin to form, out to large times when the bulk of the fluid forms a drop at the bottom of a long thin filament which connects it with the upper boundary. The roles of gravity, inertia and surface tension will be examined. 

Modelling gene networks: the case of the quorum sensing network in bacteria. 15:10 Fri 1 Jun, 2007 :: G08 Mathematics Building University of Adelaide :: Dr Adrian Koerber
The quorum sensing regulatory genenetwork is employed by bacteria to provide a measure of their populationdensity and switch their behaviour accordingly. I will present an overview of quorum sensing in bacteria together with some of the modelling approaches I\'ve taken to describe this system. I will also discuss how this system relates to virulence and medical treatment, and the insights gained from the mathematics. 

Insights into the development of the enteric nervous system and Hirschsprung's disease 15:10 Fri 24 Aug, 2007 :: G08 Mathematics building University of Adelaide :: Assoc. Prof. Kerry Landman :: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne
During the development of the enteric nervous system, neural crest (NC) cells must first migrate into and colonise the entire gut from stomach to anal end. The migratory precursor NC cells change type and differentiate into neurons and glia cells. These cells form the enteric nervous system, which gives rise to normal gut function and peristaltic contraction. Failure of the NC cells to invade the whole gut results in a lack of neurons in a length of the terminal intestine. This potentially fatal condition, marked by intractable constipation, is called Hirschsprung's Disease. The interplay between cell migration, cell proliferation and embryonic gut growth are important to the success of the NC cell colonisation process.
Multiscale models are needed in order to model the different spatiotemporal scales of the NC invasion. For example, the NC invasion wave moves into unoccupied regions of the gut with a wave speed of around 40 microns per hour. New timelapse techniques have shown that there is a weblike network structure within the invasion wave. Furthermore, within this network, individual cell trajectories vary considerably.
We have developed a populationscale model for basic rules governing NC cell invasive behaviour incorporating the important mechanisms. The model predictions were tested experimentally. Mathematical and experimental results agreed. The results provide an understanding of why many of the genes implicated in Hirschsprung's Disease influence NC population size. Our recently developed individual cellbased model also produces an invasion wave with a welldefined wave speed; however, in addition Individual cell trajectories within the invasion wave can be extracted. Further challenges in modeling the various scales of the developmental system will be discussed. 

Queues with Advance Reservations 15:10 Fri 21 Sep, 2007 :: G04 Napier Building University of Adelaide :: Prof. Peter Taylor :: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne
Queues where, on "arrival", customers make a reservation for service at some time in the future are endemic. However there is surprisingly little about them in the literature. Simulations illustrate some interesting implications of the facility to make such reservations. For example introducing independent and identically distributed reservation periods into an Erlang loss system can either increase or decrease the blocking probability from that given by Erlang's formula, despite the fact that the process of 'reserved arrivals' is still Poisson. In this talk we shall discuss a number of ways of looking at such queues. In particular, we shall obtain various transient and stationary distributions associated with the "bookings diary" for the infinite server system. However, this does not immediately answer the question of how to calculate the abovementioned blocking probabilities. We shall conclude with a few suggestions as to how this calculation might be carried out. 

Rubber Ballons  Prototypes of Hysteresis
15:10 Fri 16 Nov, 2007 :: G04 Napier Building University of Adelaide :: Emeritus Prof. Ingo Muller :: Technical University Berlin
Rubber balloons are characterized by a nonmonotone pressureradius relation which presages interesting nontrivial stability problems. A stability criterion is developed and exploited in order to show that the balloon may be stabilized at any radius by loading it with a piston under an elastic spring, if only the spring is hard enough.
If two connected balloons are subject to an inflationdeflation cycle, the pressureradius curve exhibits a fairly simple hysteresis loop. More complex hysteresis loops appear when more balloons are all inflated together. And if many balloons are inflated and deflated at the same time, the hysteresis loop assumes the form reminiscent of pseudoelasticity. Stability in those complex cases is determined by a simple suggestive argument.
References:
[1] W.Kitsche, I.Muller, P.Strehlow. Simulation of pseudoelastic behaviour in a system of rubber balloons. In: Metastability and Incompletely Posed Problems, S.Antman, J.L.Ericksen, D.Kinderlehrer, I.Muller (eds.) IMA Volume No.3, Springer Verlag, New York (1987)
[2] I.Muller, P.Strehlow, Rubber and Rubber Balloons, Springer Lecture Notes on Physics, Springer Verlag, Heidelberg (2004) 

Similarity solutions for surfacetension driven flows 15:10 Fri 14 Mar, 2008 :: LG29 Napier Building University of Adelaide :: Prof John Lister :: Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, UK
The breakup of a mass of fluid into drops is a ubiquitous phenomenon in daily life, the natural environment and technology, with common examples including a dripping tap, ocean spray and inkjet printing. It is a feature of many generic industrial processes such as spraying, emulsification, aeration, mixing and atomisation, and is an undesirable feature in coating and fibre spinning. Surfacetension driven pinchoff and the subsequent recoil are examples of finitetime singularities in which the interfacial curvature becomes infinite at the point of disconnection. As a result, the flow near the point of disconnection becomes selfsimilar and independent of initial and farfield conditions. Similarity solutions will be presented for the cases of inviscid and very viscous flow, along with comparison to experiments. In each case, a boundaryintegral representation can be used both to examine the timedependent behaviour and as the basis of a modified Newton scheme for direct solution of the similarity equations. 

Global and Local stationary modelling in finance: Theory and empirical evidence 14:10 Thu 10 Apr, 2008 :: G04 Napier Building University of Adelaide :: Prof. Dominique Guégan :: Universite Paris 1 PantheonSorbonne
To model real data sets using second order stochastic processes imposes that the data sets verify the second order stationarity condition. This stationarity condition concerns the unconditional moments of the process. It is in that context that most of models developed from the sixties' have been studied; We refer to the ARMA processes (Brockwell and Davis, 1988), the ARCH, GARCH and EGARCH models (Engle, 1982, Bollerslev, 1986, Nelson, 1990), the SETAR process (Lim and Tong, 1980 and Tong, 1990), the bilinear model (Granger and Andersen, 1978, Guégan, 1994), the EXPAR model (Haggan and Ozaki, 1980), the long memory process (Granger and Joyeux, 1980, Hosking, 1981, Gray, Zang and Woodward, 1989, Beran, 1994, Giraitis and Leipus, 1995, Guégan, 2000), the switching process (Hamilton, 1988). For all these models, we get an invertible causal solution under specific conditions on the parameters, then the forecast points and the forecast intervals are available.
Thus, the stationarity assumption is the basis for a general asymptotic theory for identification, estimation and forecasting. It guarantees that the increase of the sample size leads to more and more information of the same kind which is basic for an asymptotic theory to make sense.
Now nonstationarity modelling has also a long tradition in econometrics. This one is based on the conditional moments of the data generating process. It appears mainly in the heteroscedastic and volatility models, like the GARCH and related models, and stochastic volatility processes (Ghysels, Harvey and Renault 1997). This nonstationarity appears also in a different way with structural changes models like the switching models (Hamilton, 1988), the stopbreak model (Diebold and Inoue, 2001, Breidt and Hsu, 2002, Granger and Hyung, 2004) and the SETAR models, for instance. It can also be observed from linear models with time varying coefficients (Nicholls and Quinn, 1982, Tsay, 1987).
Thus, using stationary unconditional moments suggest a global stationarity for the model, but using nonstationary unconditional moments or nonstationary conditional moments or assuming existence of states suggest that this global stationarity fails and that we only observe a local stationary behavior.
The growing evidence of instability in the stochastic behavior of stocks, of exchange rates, of some economic data sets like growth rates for instance, characterized by existence of volatility or existence of jumps in the variance or on the levels of the prices imposes to discuss the assumption of global stationarity and its consequence in modelling, particularly in forecasting. Thus we can address several questions with respect to these remarks.
1. What kinds of nonstationarity affect the major financial and economic data sets? How to detect them?
2. Local and global stationarities: How are they defined?
3. What is the impact of evidence of nonstationarity on the statistics computed from the global non stationary data sets?
4. How can we analyze data sets in the nonstationary global framework? Does the asymptotic theory work in nonstationary framework?
5. What kind of models create local stationarity instead of global stationarity? How can we use them to develop a modelling and a forecasting strategy?
These questions began to be discussed in some papers in the economic literature. For some of these questions, the answers are known, for others, very few works exist. In this talk I will discuss all these problems and will propose 2 new stategies and modelling to solve them. Several interesting topics in empirical finance awaiting future research will also be discussed.


Computational Methods for Phase Response Analysis of Circadian Clocks 15:10 Fri 18 Jul, 2008 :: G04 Napier Building University of Adelaide. :: Prof. Linda Petzold :: Dept. of Mechanical and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Santa Barbara
Circadian clocks govern daily behaviors of organisms in all kingdoms of life. In mammals, the master clock resides in the suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) of the hypothalamus. It is composed of thousands of neurons, each of which contains a sloppy oscillator  a molecular clock governed by a transcriptional feedback network. Via intercellular signaling, the cell population synchronizes spontaneously, forming a coherent oscillation. This multioscillator is then entrained to its environment by the daily light/dark cycle.
Both at the cellular and tissular levels, the most important feature of the clock is its ability not simply to keep time, but to adjust its time, or phase, to signals. We present the parametric impulse phase response curve (pIPRC), an analytical analog to the phase response curve (PRC) used experimentally. We use the pIPRC to understand both the consequences of intercellular signaling and the light entrainment process. Further, we determine which model components determine the phase response behavior of a single oscillator by using a novel model reduction technique. We reduce the number of model components while preserving the pIPRC and then incorporate the resultant model into a couple SCN tissue model. Emergent properties, including the ability of the population to synchronize spontaneously are preserved in the reduction. Finally, we present some mathematical tools for the study of synchronization in a network of coupled, noisy oscillators.


Betti's Reciprocal Theorem for Inclusion and Contact Problems 15:10 Fri 1 Aug, 2008 :: G03 Napier Building University of Adelaide :: Prof. Patrick Selvadurai :: Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics, McGill University
Enrico Betti (18231892) is recognized in the mathematics community for his pioneering contributions to topology. An equally important contribution is his formulation of the reciprocity theorem applicable to elastic bodies that satisfy the classical equations of linear elasticity. Although James Clerk Maxwell (18311879) proposed a law of reciprocal displacements and rotations in 1864, the contribution of Betti is acknowledged for its underlying formal mathematical basis and generality. The purpose of this lecture is to illustrate how Betti's reciprocal theorem can be used to full advantage to develop compact analytical results for certain contact and inclusion problems in the classical theory of elasticity. Inclusion problems are encountered in number of areas in applied mechanics ranging from composite materials to geomechanics. In composite materials, the inclusion represents an inhomogeneity that is introduced to increase either the strength or the deformability characteristics of resulting material. In geomechanics, the inclusion represents a constructed material region, such as a ground anchor, that is introduced to provide load transfer from structural systems. Similarly, contact problems have applications to the modelling of the behaviour of indentors used in materials testing to the study of foundations used to distribute loads transmitted from structures. In the study of conventional problems the inclusions and the contact regions are directly loaded and this makes their analysis quite straightforward. When the interaction is induced by loads that are placed exterior to the indentor or inclusion, the direct analysis of the problem becomes inordinately complicated both in terns of formulation of the integral equations and their numerical solution. It is shown by a set of selected examples that the application of Betti's reciprocal theorem leads to the development of exact closed form solutions to what would otherwise be approximate solutions achievable only through the numerical solution of a set of coupled integral equations. 

Elliptic equation for diffusionadvection flows 15:10 Fri 15 Aug, 2008 :: G03 Napier Building University of Adelaide :: Prof. Pavel Bedrikovsetsky :: Australian School of Petroleum Science, University of Adelaide.
The standard diffusion equation is obtained by Einstein's method and its generalisation, FokkerPlankKolmogorovFeller theory. The time between jumps in Einstein derivation is constant.
We discuss random walks with residence time distribution, which occurs for flows of solutes and suspensions/colloids in porous media, CO2 sequestration in coal mines, several processes in chemical, petroleum and environmental engineering. The rigorous application of the Einstein's method results in new equation, containing the time and the mixed dispersion terms expressing the dispersion of the particle time steps.
Usually, adding the second time derivative results in additional initial data. For the equation derived, the condition of limited solution when time tends to infinity provides with uniqueness of the Caushy problem solution.
The solution of the pulse injection problem describing a common tracer injection experiment is studied in greater detail. The new theory predicts delay of the maximum of the tracer, compared to the velocity of the flow, while its forward "tail" contains much more particles than in the solution of the classical parabolic (advectiondispersion) equation. This is in agreement with the experimental observations and predictions of the direct simulation.


Probabilistic models of human cognition 15:10 Fri 29 Aug, 2008 :: G03 Napier Building University of Adelaide :: Dr Daniel Navarro :: School of Psychology, University of Adelaide
Over the last 15 years a fairly substantial psychological literature has developed in which human reasoning and decisionmaking is viewed as the solution to a variety of statistical problems posed by the environments in which we operate. In this talk, I briefly outline the general approach to cognitive modelling that is adopted in this literature, which relies heavily on Bayesian statistics, and introduce a little of the current research in this field. In particular, I will discuss work by myself and others on the statistical basis of how people make simple inductive leaps and generalisations, and the links between these generalisations and how people acquire word meanings and learn new concepts. If time permits, the extensions of the work in which complex concepts may be characterised with the aid of nonparametric Bayesian tools such as Dirichlet processes will be briefly mentioned. 

Mathematical modelling of blood flow in curved arteries 15:10 Fri 12 Sep, 2008 :: G03 Napier Building University of Adelaide :: Dr Jennifer Siggers :: Imperial College London
Atherosclerosis, characterised by plaques, is the most common arterial
disease. Plaques tend to develop in regions of low mean wall shear
stress, and regions where the wall shear stress changes direction during
the course of the cardiac cycle. To investigate the effect of the
arterial geometry and driving pressure gradient on the wall shear stress
distribution we consider an idealised model of a curved artery with
uniform curvature. We assume that the flow is fullydeveloped and seek
solutions of the governing equations, finding the effect of the
parameters on the flow and wall shear stress distribution. Most
previous work assumes the curvature ratio is asymptotically small;
however, many arteries have significant curvature (e.g. the aortic arch
has curvature ratio approx 0.25), and in this work we consider in
particular the effect of finite curvature.
We present an extensive analysis of curvedpipe flow driven by a steady
and unsteady pressure gradients. Increasing the curvature causes the
shear stress on the inside of the bend to rise, indicating that the risk
of plaque development would be overestimated by considering only the
weak curvature limit. 

Assisted reproduction technology: how maths can contribute 13:10 Wed 22 Oct, 2008 :: Napier 210 :: Dr Yvonne Stokes
Media...Most people will have heard of IVF (in vitro fertilisation), a
technology for helping infertile couples have a baby. Although there are
many IVF babies, many will also know that the success rate is still low
for the cost and inconvenience involved. The fact that some women
cannot make use of IVF because of lifethreatening consequences is less
well known but motivates research into other technologies, including
IVM (in vitro maturation).
What has all this to do with maths? Come along and find out how
mathematical modelling is contributing to understanding and
improvement in this important and interesting field.


Oceanographic Research at the South Australian Research and Development Institute: opportunities for collaborative research 15:10 Fri 21 Nov, 2008 :: Napier G04 :: Associate Prof John Middleton :: South Australian Research and Development Institute
Increasing threats to S.A.'s fisheries and marine environment have underlined the increasing need for soundly based research into the ocean circulation and ecosystems (phyto/zooplankton) of the shelf and gulfs. With support of Marine Innovation SA, the Oceanography Program has within 2 years, grown to include 6 FTEs and a budget of over $4.8M. The program currently leads two major research projects, both of which involve numerical and applied mathematical modelling of oceanic flow and ecosystems as well as statistical techniques for the analysis of data. The first is the implementation of the Southern Australian Integrated Marine Observing System (SAIMOS) that is providing data to understand the dynamics of shelf boundary currents, monitor for climate change and understand the phyto/zooplankton ecosystems that underpin SA's wild fisheries and aquaculture. SAIMOS involves the use of shipbased sampling, the deployment of underwater marine moorings, underwater gliders, HF Ocean RADAR, acoustic tracking of tagged fish and Autonomous Underwater vehicles.
The second major project involves measuring and modelling the ocean circulation and biological systems within Spencer Gulf and the impact on prawn larval dispersal and on the sustainability of existing and proposed aquaculture sites. The discussion will focus on opportunities for collaborative research with both faculty and students in this exciting growth area of S.A. science.


Impulsively generated drops 15:00 Fri 27 Feb, 2009 :: Napier LG29 :: Prof William Phillips :: Swinburne University of Technology
This talk is concerned with the evolution of an unbounded inviscid fluidfluid
interface subject to an axisymmetric impulse in pressure and how inertial,
interfacial and gravitational forces affect that evolution. The construct was
motivated by the occurrence of lung hemorrhage resulting from ultrasonic
imaging and pursues the notion that bursts of ultrasound act to expel droplets
that puncture the soft airfilled sacs in the lung plural surface allowing them
to fill with blood. The evolution of the free surface is described by a
boundary integral formulation which is integrated forward in time numerically.
As the interface evolves, it is seen, depending upon the levels of gravity and
surface tension, to form either axisymmetric surface jets, waves or droplets.
Moreover the droplets may be spherical, inverted tearshaped or pancake like.
Also of interest is the finite time singularity which occurs when the drop
pinches off; this is seen to be of the power law type with an exponent of 2/3.


Bursts and canards in a pituitary lactotroph model 15:10 Fri 6 Mar, 2009 :: Napier LG29 :: Dr Martin Wechselberger :: University of Sydney
Bursting oscillations in nerve cells have been the focus of a great deal of attention by mathematicians. These are typically studied by taking advantage of multiple timescales in the system under study to perform a singular perturbation analysis. Bursting also occurs in hormonesecreting pituitary cells, but is characterized by fast bursts with small electrical impulses. Although the separation of timescales is not as clear, singular perturbation analysis is still the key to understand the bursting mechanism. In particular, we will show that canards are responsible for the observed oscillatory behaviour. 

Sloshing in tanks of liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessels 15:10 Wed 22 Apr, 2009 :: Napier LG29 :: Prof. Frederic Dias :: ENS, Cachan
The last scientific conversation I had with Ernie Tuck was on liquid impact. As a matter of fact, we discussed the paper by J.H. Milgram, Journal of Fluid Mechanics 37 (1969), entitled "The motion of a fluid in a cylindrical container with a free surface following vertical impact."
Liquid impact is a key issue in sloshing and in particular in sloshing in tanks of LNG vessels. Numerical simulations of sloshing have been performed by various groups, using various types of numerical methods. In terms of the numerical results, the outcome is often impressive, but the question remains of how relevant these results are when it comes to determining impact pressures. The numerical models are too simplified to reproduce the high variability of the measured pressures. In fact, for the time being, it is not possible to simulate accurately both global and local effects. Unfortunately it appears that local effects predominate over global effects when the behaviour of pressures is considered.
Having said this, it is important to point out that numerical studies can be quite useful to perform sensitivity analyses in idealized conditions such as a liquid mass falling under gravity on top of a horizontal wall and then spreading along the lateral sides. Simple analytical models inspired by numerical results on idealized problems can also be useful to predict trends.
The talk is organized as follows: After a brief introduction on the sloshing problem and on scaling laws, it will be explained to what extent numerical studies can be used to improve our understanding of impact pressures. Results on a liquid mass hitting a wall obtained by a finitevolume code with interface reconstruction as well as results obtained by a simple analytical model will be shown to reproduce the trends of experiments on sloshing.
This is joint work with L. Brosset (GazTransport & Technigaz), J.M. Ghidaglia (ENS Cachan) and J.P. Braeunig (INRIA). 

Four classes of complex manifolds 13:10 Fri 8 May, 2009 :: School Board Room :: A/Prof Finnur Larusson :: University of Adelaide
We introduce the four classes of complex manifolds defined by having few or many holomorphic maps to or from the complex plane. Two of these classes have played an important role in complex geometry for a long time. A third turns out to be too large to be of much interest. The fourth class has only recently emerged from work of Abel Prize winner Mikhail Gromov. 

Dynamics of Moving Average Rules in a Continuoustime Financial Market Model 15:10 Fri 8 May, 2009 :: LG29 :: Associate Prof (Tony) Xuezhong He :: University of Technology Sydney
Within a continuoustime framework, this paper proposes a stochastic
heterogeneous agent model (HAM) of financial markets with time
delays to unify various moving average rules used in discretetime
HAMs. Intuitive conditions for the stability of the fundamental price of
the deterministic model in terms of agents' behavior parameters and
time delay are obtained. By focusing on the stabilizing role of the
time delay, it is found that an increase in time delay not only can
destabilize the market price, resulting in oscillatory market price
characterized by a Hopf bifurcation, but also can stabilize an
otherwise unstable market price. Numerical simulations show that the
stochastic model is able to characterize long deviations of the
market price from its fundamental price and excess volatility and
generate most of the stylized facts observed in financial markets.


Unsolvable problems in mathematics 15:10 Fri 3 Jul, 2009 :: Badger Labs G13 Macbeth Lecture Theatre :: Prof Greg Hjorth :: University of Melbourne
In the 1900 International Congress of Mathematicians David Hilbert proposed a list of 23 landmark mathematical problems. The first of these problems was shown by Paul Cohen in 1963 to be undecidable—which is to say, in informal language, that it was in principle completely unsolvable. The tenth problem was shown by Yuri Matiyasevich to be unsolvable in 1970.
These developments would very likely have been profoundly surprising, perhaps even disturbing, to Hilbert.
I want to review some of the general history of unsolvable problems. As much as reasonably possible in the time allowed, I hope to give the audience a sense of why the appearance of unsolvable problems in mathematics was inevitable, and perhaps even desirable. 

Modelling fluidstructure interactions in microdevices 15:00 Thu 3 Sep, 2009 :: School Board Room :: Dr Richard Clarke :: University of Auckland
The flows generated in many modern microdevices possess very little convective inertia, however, they can be highly unsteady and exert substantial hydrodynamic forces on the device components. Typically these components exhibit some degree of compliance, which traditionally has been treated using simple onedimensional elastic beam models. However, recent findings have suggested that threedimensional effects can be important and, accordingly, we consider the elastohydrodynamic response of a rapidly oscillating threedimensional elastic plate that is immersed in a viscous fluid. In addition, a preliminary model will be presented which incorporates the presence of a nearby elastic wall. 

The proof of the Poincare conjecture 15:10 Fri 25 Sep, 2009 :: Napier 102 :: Prof Terrence Tao :: UCLA
In a series of three papers from 20022003, Grigori Perelman gave a spectacular proof of the Poincare Conjecture (every smooth compact simply connected threedimensional manifold is topologically isomorphic to a sphere), one of the most famous open problems in mathematics (and one of the seven Clay Millennium Prize Problems worth a million dollars each), by developing several new groundbreaking advances in Hamilton's theory of Ricci flow on manifolds. In this talk I describe in broad detail how the proof proceeds, and briefly discuss some of the key turning points in the argument.
About the speaker:
Terence Tao was born in Adelaide, Australia, in 1975. He has been a professor of mathematics at UCLA since 1999, having completed his PhD under Elias Stein at Princeton in 1996. Tao's areas of research include harmonic analysis, PDE, combinatorics, and number theory. He has received a number of awards, including the Salem Prize in 2000, the Bochner Prize in 2002, the Fields Medal and SASTRA Ramanujan Prize in 2006, and the MacArthur Fellowship and Ostrowski Prize in 2007. Terence Tao also currently holds the James and Carol Collins chair in mathematics at UCLA, and is a Fellow of the Royal Society and the Australian Academy of Sciences (Corresponding Member). 

Modelling and pricing for portfolio credit derivatives 15:10 Fri 16 Oct, 2009 :: MacBeth Lecture Theatre :: Dr Ben Hambly :: University of Oxford
The current financial crisis has been in part precipitated by the
growth of complex credit derivatives and their mispricing. This talk
will discuss some of the background to the `credit crunch', as well as
the models and methods used currently. We will then develop an alternative
view of large basket credit derivatives, as functions of a stochastic
partial differential equation, which addresses some of the shortcomings. 

Nonlinear time series econometrics and financial econometrics: a personal overview 15:10 Fri 12 Mar, 2010 :: Napier G04 :: Prof Jiti Gao :: University of Adelaide
Through using ten examples, the talk focuses on the recent development on nonlinear time series econometrics and financial econometrics.
Such examples cover the following models:
1. Nonlinear time series trend model;
2. Partially linear autoregressive model;
3. Nonlinear capital asset pricing model;
4. Additive capital asset pricing model;
5. Varyingcoefficient capital asset pricing model;
6. Semiparametric errorterm model;
7. Nonlinear and nonstationary model;
8. Partially linear ARCH model;
9. Continuoustime financial model; and
10. Stochastic volatility model. 

The Jeffery–Hamel similarity solution and its relation to flow in a diverging channel 15:10 Fri 19 Mar, 2010 :: Santos Lecture Theatre :: Dr Phil Haines :: University of Adelaide
Jeffery–Hamel flows describe the steady twodimensional flow of an
incompressible viscous fluid between plane walls separated by an angle
$\alpha$. They are often used to approximate the flow in domains of finite
radial extent. However, whilst the base Jeffery–Hamel solution is
characterised by a subcritical pitchfork bifurcation, studies in expanding
channels of finite length typically find symmetry breaking via a supercritical
bifurcation.
We use the finite element method to calculate solutions for flow in a
twodimensional wedge of finite length bounded by arcs of constant radii, $R_1$
and $R_2$. We present a comprehensive picture of the bifurcation structure and
nonlinear states for a net radial outflow of fluid. We find a series of nested
neutral curves in the Reynolds number$\alpha$ plane
corresponding to pitchfork bifurcations that break the midplane symmetry of the
flow. We show that these finite domain bifurcations remain distinct from the
similarity solution bifurcation even in the limit $R_2/R_1 \rightarrow \infty$.
We also discuss a class of stable steady solutions apparently related to a
steady, spatially periodic, wave first observed by Tutty (1996). These
solutions remain disconnected in our domain in the sense that they do not
arise via a local bifurcation of the Stokes flow solution as the Reynolds
number is increased. 

Modelling of the Human Skin Equivalent 15:10 Fri 26 Mar, 2010 :: Napier 102 :: Prof Graeme Pettet :: Queensland University of Technology
A brief overview will be given of the development of a so called Human Skin Equivalent Construct. This laboratory grown construct can be used for studying growth, response and the repair of human skin subjected to wounding and/or treatment under strictly regulated conditions. Details will also be provided of a series of mathematical models we have developed that describe the dynamics of the Human Skin Equivalent Construct, which can be used to assist in the development of the experimental protocol, and to provide insight into the fundamental processes at play in the growth and development of the epidermis in both healthy and diseased states. 

The fluid mechanics of gels used in tissue engineering 15:10 Fri 9 Apr, 2010 :: Santos Lecture Theatre :: Dr Edward Green :: University of Western Australia
Tissue engineering could be called 'the science of spare parts'.
Although currently in its infancy, its longterm aim is to grow
functional tissues and organs in vitro to replace those which have
become defective through age, trauma or disease. Recent experiments
have shown that mechanical interactions between cells and the materials
in which they are grown have an important influence on tissue
architecture, but in order to understand these effects, we first need to
understand the mechanics of the gels themselves.
Many biological gels (e.g. collagen) used in tissue engineering have a
fibrous microstructure which affects the way forces are transmitted
through the material, and which in turn affects cell migration and other
behaviours. I will present a simple continuum model of gel mechanics,
based on treating the gel as a transversely isotropic viscous material.
Two canonical problems are considered involving thin twodimensional
films: extensional flow, and squeezing flow of the fluid between two
rigid plates. Neglecting inertia, gravity and surface tension, in each
regime we can exploit the thin geometry to obtain a leadingorder
problem which is sufficiently tractable to allow the use of analytical
methods. I discuss how these results could be exploited practically to
determine the mechanical properties of real gels. If time permits, I
will also talk about work currently in progress which explores the
interaction between gel mechanics and cell behaviour. 

Random walk integrals 13:10 Fri 16 Apr, 2010 :: School Board Room :: Prof Jonathan Borwein :: University of Newcastle
Following Pearson in 1905, we study the expected distance of a twodimensional walk in the plane with unit steps in random directionswhat Pearson called a "ramble". A series evaluation and recursions are obtained making it possible to explicitly determine this distance for small number of steps. Closed form expressions for all the moments of a 2step and a 3step walk are given, and a formula is conjectured for the 4step walk. Heavy use is made of the analytic continuation of the underlying integral. 

A variance constraining ensemble Kalman filter: how to improve forecast using climatic data of unobserved variables 15:10 Fri 28 May, 2010 :: Santos Lecture Theatre :: A/Prof Georg Gottwald :: The University of Sydney
Data assimilation aims to solve one of the fundamental problems ofnumerical weather prediction  estimating the optimal state of the
atmosphere given a numerical model of the dynamics, and sparse, noisy
observations of the system. A standard tool in attacking this
filtering problem is the Kalman filter.
We consider the problem when only partial observations are available.
In particular we consider the situation where the observational space
consists of variables which are directly observable with known
observational error, and of variables of which only their climatic
variance and mean are given. We derive the corresponding Kalman
filter in a variational setting.
We analyze the variance constraining Kalman filter (VCKF) filter for
a simple linear toy model and determine its range of optimal
performance. We explore the variance constraining Kalman filter in an
ensemble transform setting for the Lorenz96 system, and show that
incorporating the information on the variance on some unobservable
variables can improve the skill and also increase the stability of
the data assimilation procedure.
Using methods from dynamical systems theory we then systems where the
unobserved variables evolve deterministically but chaotically on a
fast time scale.
This is joint work with Lewis Mitchell and Sebastian Reich.


Vertex algebras and variational calculus II 13:10 Fri 11 Jun, 2010 :: School Board Room :: Dr Pedram Hekmati :: University of Adelaide
Last time I introduced the variational complex of an algebra of differential
functions and gave a sketchy definition of a vertex algebra. This week I will
make this notion more precise and explain how to apply it to the calculus of
variations. 

Some thoughts on wine production 15:05 Fri 18 Jun, 2010 :: School Board Room :: Prof Zbigniew Michalewicz :: School of Computer Science, University of Adelaide
In the modern information era, managers (e.g. winemakers) recognize the
competitive opportunities represented by decisionsupport tools which can
provide a significant cost savings & revenue increases for their businesses.
Wineries make daily decisions on the processing of grapes, from harvest time
(prediction of maturity of grapes, scheduling of equipment and labour, capacity
planning, scheduling of crushers) through tank farm activities (planning and
scheduling of wine and juice transfers on the tank farm) to packaging processes
(bottling and storage activities). As such operation is quite complex, the whole
area is loaded with interesting ORrelated issues. These include the issues of
global vs. local optimization, relationship between prediction and optimization,
operating in dynamic environments, strategic vs. tactical optimization, and
multiobjective optimization & tradeoff analysis. During the talk we address
the above issues; a few realworld applications will be shown and discussed to
emphasize some of the presented material. 

Meteorological drivers of extreme bushfire events in southern Australia 15:10 Fri 2 Jul, 2010 :: Benham Lecture Theatre :: Prof Graham Mills :: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne
Bushfires occur regularly during summer in southern Australia, but only a few of these fires become iconic due to their effects, either in terms of loss of life or economic and social cost. Such events include Black Friday (1939), the Hobart fires (1967), Ash Wednesday (1983), the Canberra bushfires (2003), and most recently Black Saturday in February 2009. In most of these events the weather of the day was statistically extreme in terms of heat, (low) humidity, and wind speed, and in terms of antecedent drought. There are a number of reasons for conducting postevent analyses of the meteorology of these events. One is to identify any meteorological circulation systems or dynamic processes occurring on those days that might not be widely or hitherto recognised, to document these, and to develop new forecast or guidance products. The understanding and prediction of such features can be used in the short term to assist in effective management of fires and the safety of firefighters and in the medium range to assist preparedness for the onset of extreme conditions. The results of such studies can also be applied to simulations of future climates to assess the likely changes in frequency of the most extreme fire weather events, and their documentary records provide a resource that can be used for advanced training purposes. In addition, particularly for events further in the past, revisiting these events using reanalysis data sets and contemporary NWP models can also provide insights unavailable at the time of the events.
Over the past few years the Bushfire CRC's Fire Weather and Fire Danger project in CAWCR has studied the mesoscale meteorology of a number of major fire events, including the days of Ash Wednesday 1983, the Dandenong Ranges fire in January 1997, the Canberra fires and the Alpine breakout fires in January 2003, the Lower Eyre Peninsula fires in January 2005 and the Boorabbin fire in December 2007January 2008. Various aspects of these studies are described below, including the structures of dry cold frontal wind changes, the particular character of the cold fronts associated with the most damaging fires in southeastern Australia, and some aspects of how the vertical temperature and humidity structure of the atmosphere may affect the fire weather at the surface.
These studies reveal much about these major events, but also suggest future research directions, and some of these will be discussed.


The Hmm... Sessions 11:00 Wed 14 Jul, 2010 :: Maths DropIn Centre (Level 1 Schulz Building)
The aim of the Hmm... Sessions is for people to get together to solve
puzzles as a group. There will be lots of time to solve puzzles in groups
and to celebrate the clever solutions of others. The lunchbreak provides
time to socialise, play games or to continue solving puzzles (bring your own
lunch, or go out to nearby Rundle Mall to buy lunch on the day).
Hosted by Dr David Butler of the Maths Learning Service, University of
Adelaide. 

Higher nonunital Quillen K'theory 13:10 Fri 23 Jul, 2010 :: EngineeringMaths G06 :: Dr Snigdhayan Mahanta :: University of Adelaide
Quillen introduced a $K'_0$theory for possibly nonunital
rings and showed that it
agrees with the usual algebraic $K_0$theory if the ring is unital. We
shall introduce higher
$K'$groups for $k$algebras, where $k$ is a field, and discuss some
elementary properties
of this theory. We shall also show that for stable $C*$algebras the
higher $K'$theory agrees
with the topological $K$theory. If time permits we shall explain how
this provides a formalism
to treat topological $\mathbb{T}$dualities via Kasparov's bivariant $K$theory. 

Counting lattice points in polytopes and geometry 15:10 Fri 6 Aug, 2010 :: Napier G04 :: Dr Paul Norbury :: University of Melbourne
Counting lattice points in polytopes arises in many areas of pure and applied mathematics. A basic counting problem is this: how many different ways can one give change of 1 dollar into 5,10, 20 and 50 cent coins? This problem counts lattice points in a tetrahedron, and if there also must be exactly 10 coins then it counts lattice points in a triangle. The number of lattice points in polytopes can be used to measure the robustness of a computer network, or in statistics to test independence of characteristics of samples. I will describe the general structure of lattice point counts and the difficulty of calculations. I will then describe a particular lattice point count in which the structure simplifies considerably allowing one to calculate easily. I will spend a brief time at the end describing how this is related to the moduli space of Riemann surfaces. 

A spatialtemporal point process model for fine resolution multisite rainfall data from Roma, Italy 14:10 Thu 19 Aug, 2010 :: Napier G04 :: A/Prof Paul Cowpertwait :: Auckland University of Technology
A point process rainfall model is further developed that has storm origins occurring in spacetime according to a Poisson process. Each storm origin has a random radius so that storms occur as circular regions in twodimensional
space, where the storm radii are taken to be independent exponential random
variables. Storm origins are of random type z, where z follows a continuous
probability distribution. Cell origins occur in a further spatial Poisson
process and have arrival times that follow a NeymanScott point process. Cell
origins have random radii so that cells form discs in twodimensional space.
Statistical properties up to third order are derived and used to fit the model
to 10 min series taken from 23 sites across the Roma region, Italy.
Distributional properties of the observed annual maxima are compared to
equivalent values sampled from series that are simulated using the fitted
model. The results indicate that the model will be of use in urban drainage
projects for the Roma region.


A polyhedral model for boron nitride nanotubes 15:10 Fri 3 Sep, 2010 :: Napier G04 :: Dr Barry Cox :: University of Adelaide
The conventional rolledup model of nanotubes does not apply to the very small radii tubes, for which curvature effects become significant. In this talk an existing geometric model for carbon nanotubes proposed by the authors, which accommodates this deficiency and which is based on the exact polyhedral cylindrical structure, is extended to a nanotube structure involving two species of atoms in equal proportion, and in particular boron nitride nanotubes. This generalisation allows the principle features to be included as the fundamental assumptions of the model, such as equal bond length but distinct bond angles and radii between the two species. The polyhedral model is based on the five simple geometric assumptions: (i) all bonds are of equal length, (ii) all bond angles for the boron atoms are equal, (iii) all boron atoms lie at an equal distance from the nanotube axis, (iv) all nitrogen atoms lie at an equal distance from the nanotube axis, and (v) there exists a fixed ratio of pyramidal height H, between the boron species compared with the corresponding height in a symmetric single species nanotube.
Working from these postulates, expressions are derived for the various structural parameters such as radii and bond angles for the two species for specific values of the chiral vector numbers (n,m). The new model incorporates an additional constant of proportionality H, which we assume applies to all nanotubes comprising the same elements and is such that H = 1 for a single species nanotube. Comparison with `ab initio' studies suggest that this assumption is entirely reasonable, and in particular we determine the value H = 0.56\pm0.04 for boron nitride, based on computational results in the literature.
This talk relates to work which is a couple of years old and given time at the end we will discuss some newer results in geometric models developed with our former student Richard Lee (now also at the University of Adelaide as a post doc) and some workinprogress on carbon nanocones.
Note: pyramidal height is our own terminology and will be explained in the talk.


Hugs not drugs 15:10 Mon 20 Sep, 2010 :: Ingkarni Wardli B17 :: Dr Scott McCue :: Queensland University of Technology
I will discuss a model for drug diffusion that involves a Stefan problem with a "kinetic undercooling". I like Stefan problems, so I like this model. I like drugs too, but only legal ones of course. Anyway, it turns out that in some parameter regimes, this sophisticated moving boundary problem hardly works better than a simple linear undergraduate model (there's a lesson here for mathematical modelling). On the other hand, for certain polymer capsules, the results are interesting and suggest new means for controlled drug delivery. If time permits, I may discuss certain asymptotic limits that are of interest from a Stefan problem perspective. Finally, I won't bring any drugs with me to the seminar, but I'm willing to provide hugs if necessary. 

IGAAMSI Workshop: Dirac operators in geometry, topology, representation theory, and physics 10:00 Mon 18 Oct, 2010 :: 7.15 Ingkarni Wardli :: Prof Dan Freed :: University of Texas, Austin
Lecture Series by Dan Freed (University of Texas, Austin).
Dirac introduced his eponymous operator to describe electrons in quantum theory.
It was rediscovered by Atiyah and Singer in their study of the index problem on
manifolds. In these lectures we explore new theorems and applications. Several
of these also involve Ktheory in its recent twisted and differential
variations.
These lectures will be supplemented by additional talks by invited speakers. For more details, please see the conference webpage:
http://www.iga.adelaide.edu.au/workshops/WorkshopOct2010/ 

Statistical physics and behavioral adaptation to Creation's main stimuli: sex and food 15:10 Fri 29 Oct, 2010 :: E10 B17 Suite 1 :: Prof Laurent Seuront :: Flinders University and South Australian Research and Development Institute
Animals typically search for food and mates, while avoiding predators. This is particularly critical for keystone organisms such as intertidal gastropods and copepods (i.e. millimeterscale crustaceans) as they typically rely on nonvisual senses for detecting, identifying and locating mates in their two and threedimensional environments. Here, using stochastic methods derived from the field of nonlinear physics, we provide new insights into the nature (i.e. innate vs. acquired) of the motion behavior of gastropods and copepods, and demonstrate how changes in their behavioral properties can be used to identify the tradeoffs between foraging for food or sex. The gastropod Littorina littorea hence moves according to fractional Brownian motions while foraging for food (in accordance with the fractal nature of food distributions), and switch to Brownian motion while foraging for sex. In contrast, the swimming behavior of the copepod Temora longicornis belongs to the class of multifractal random walks (MRW; i.e. a form of anomalous diffusion), characterized by a nonlinear moment scaling function for distance versus time. This clearly differs from the traditional Brownian and fractional Brownian walks expected or previously detected in animal behaviors. The divergence between MRW and Levy flight and walk is also discussed, and it is shown how copepod anomalous diffusion is enhanced by the presence and concentration of conspecific waterborne signals, and is dramatically increasing malefemale encounter rates. 

Arbitrage bounds for weighted variance swap prices 15:05 Fri 3 Dec, 2010 :: Napier LG28 :: Prof Mark Davis :: Imperial College London
This paper builds on earlier work by Davis and Hobson (Mathematical Finance,
2007) giving modelfreeexcept for a 'frictionless markets' assumption
necessary and sufficient conditions for absence of arbitrage given a set of
currenttime put and call options on some underlying asset. Here we suppose
that the prices of a set of put options, all maturing at the same time, are
given and satisfy the conditions for consistency with absence of arbitrage.
We
now add a pathdependent option, specifically a weighted variance swap, to
the
set of traded assets and ask what are the conditions on its time0 price
under
which consistency with absence of arbitrage is maintained. In the present
work,
we work under the extra modelling assumption that the underlying asset price
process has continuous paths. In general, we find that there is always a
non
trivial lower bound to the range of arbitragefree prices, but only in the
case
of a corridor swap do we obtain a finite upper bound. In the case of, say,
the
vanilla variance swap, a finite upper bound exists when there are additional
traded European options which constrain the left wing of the volatility
surface
in appropriate ways. 

Queues with skill based routing under FCFS–ALIS regime 15:10 Fri 11 Feb, 2011 :: B17 Ingkarni Wardli :: Prof Gideon Weiss :: The University of Haifa, Israel
We consider a system where jobs of several types are served by servers
of several types, and a bipartite graph between server types and job types
describes feasible assignments. This is a common situation in manufacturing,
call centers with skill based routing, matching of parentchild in adoption or
matching in kidney transplants etc. We consider the case of first come first
served policy: jobs are assigned to the first available feasible server in
order of their arrivals. We consider two types of policies for assigning
customers to idle servers  a random assignment and assignment to the longest
idle server (ALIS) We survey some results for four different situations:
 For a loss system we find conditions for reversibility and insensitivity.
 For a manufacturing type system, in which there is enough capacity to serve
all jobs, we discuss a product form solution and waiting times.
 For an infinite matching model in which an infinite sequence of customers of
IID types, and infinite sequence of servers of IID types are matched
according to first come first, we obtain a product form stationary
distribution for this system, which we use to calculate matching rates.
 For a call center model with overload and abandonments we make some plausible
observations.
This talk surveys joint work with Ivo Adan, Rene Caldentey, Cor Hurkens, Ed
Kaplan and Damon Wischik, as well as work by Jeremy Visschers, Rishy Talreja and
Ward Whitt.


Mathematical modelling in nanotechnology 15:10 Fri 4 Mar, 2011 :: 7.15 Ingkarni Wardli :: Prof Jim Hill :: University of Adelaide
Media...In this talk we present an overview of the mathematical modelling contributions of the Nanomechanics Groups at the Universities of Adelaide and Wollongong. Fullerenes and carbon nanotubes have unique properties, such as low weight, high strength, flexibility, high thermal conductivity and chemical stability, and they have many potential applications in nanodevices. In this talk we first present some new results on the geometric structure of carbon nanotubes and on related nanostructures. One concept that has attracted much attention is the creation of nanooscillators, to produce frequencies in the gigahertz range, for applications such as ultrafast optical filters and nanoantennae. The sliding of an inner shell inside an outer shell of a multiwalled carbon nanotube can generate oscillatory frequencies up to several gigahertz, and the shorter the inner tube the higher the frequency. A C60nanotube oscillator generates high frequencies by oscillating a C60 fullerene inside a singlewalled carbon nanotube. Here we discuss the underlying mechanisms of nanooscillators and using the LennardJones potential together with the continuum approach, to mathematically model the C60nanotube nanooscillator. Finally, three illustrative examples of recent modelling in hydrogen storage, nanomedicine and nanocomputing are discussed. 

Modelling of Hydrological Persistence in the MurrayDarling Basin for the Management of Weirs 12:10 Mon 4 Apr, 2011 :: 5.57 Ingkarni Wardli :: Aiden Fisher :: University of Adelaide
The lakes and weirs along the lower Murray River in Australia are aggregated and
considered as a sequence of five reservoirs. A seasonal Markov chain model for
the system will be implemented, and a stochastic dynamic program will be used to
find optimal release strategies, in terms of expected monetary value (EMV), for
the competing demands on the water resource given the stochastic nature of
inflows. Matrix analytic methods will be used to analyse the system further, and
in particular enable the full distribution of first passage times between any
groups of states to be calculated. The full distribution of first passage times
can be used to provide a measure of the risk associated with optimum EMV
strategies, such as conditional value at risk (CVaR). The sensitivity of the
model, and risk, to changing rainfall scenarios will be investigated. The effect
of decreasing the level of discretisation of the reservoirs will be explored.
Also, the use of matrix analytic methods facilitates the use of hidden states to
allow for hydrological persistence in the inflows. Evidence for hydrological
persistence of inflows to the lower Murray system, and the effect of making
allowance for this, will be discussed. 

How to value risk 12:10 Mon 11 Apr, 2011 :: 5.57 Ingkarni Wardli :: Leo Shen :: University of Adelaide
A key question in mathematical finance is: given a future random payoff X, what is its value today? If X represents a loss, one can ask how risky is X. To mitigate risk it must be modelled and quantified. The finance industry has used ValueatRisk and conditional ValueatRisk as measures. However, these measures are not time consistent and ValueatRisk can penalize diversification. A modern theory of risk measures is being developed which is related to solutions of backward stochastic differential equations in continuous time and stochastic difference equations in discrete time.
I first review risk measures used in mathematical finance, including static and dynamic risk measures. I recall results relating to backward stochastic difference equations (BSDEs) associated with a single jump process. Then I evaluate some numerical examples of the solutions of the backward stochastic difference equations and related risk measures. These concepts are new. I hope the examples will indicate how they might be used. 

Why is a pure mathematician working in biology? 15:10 Fri 15 Apr, 2011 :: Mawson Lab G19 lecture theatre :: Associate Prof Andrew Francis :: University of Western Sydney
Media...A pure mathematician working in biology should be a contradiction in
terms. In this talk I will describe how I became interested in working in
biology, coming from an algebraic background. I will also describe some
areas of evolutionary biology that may benefit from an algebraic approach.
Finally, if time permits I will reflect on the sometimes difficult
distinction between pure and applied mathematics, and perhaps venture some
thoughts on mathematical research in general. 

On parameter estimation in population models 15:10 Fri 6 May, 2011 :: 715 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Joshua Ross :: The University of Adelaide
Essential to applying a mathematical model to a realworld application is
calibrating the model to data. Methods for calibrating population models
often become computationally infeasible when the populations size (more generally
the size of the state space) becomes large, or other complexities such as
timedependent transition rates, or sampling error, are present. Here we
will discuss the use of diffusion approximations to perform estimation in several
scenarios, with successively reduced assumptions: (i) under the assumption
of stationarity (the process had been evolving for a very long time with
constant parameter values); (ii) transient dynamics (the assumption of stationarity
is invalid, and thus only constant parameter values may be assumed); and, (iii)
timeinhomogeneous chains (the parameters may vary with time) and accounting
for observation error (a sample of the true state is observed). 

Change detection in rainfall time series for Perth, Western Australia 12:10 Mon 16 May, 2011 :: 5.57 Ingkarni Wardli :: Farah Mohd Isa :: University of Adelaide
There have been numerous reports that the rainfall in south Western Australia,
particularly around Perth has observed a step change decrease, which is
typically attributed to climate change. Four statistical tests are used to
assess the empirical evidence for this claim on time series from five
meteorological stations, all of which exceed 50 years. The tests used in this
study are: the CUSUM; Bayesian Change Point analysis; consecutive ttest and the
Hotellingâs TÂ²statistic. Results from multivariate Hotellingâs TÂ² analysis are
compared with those from the three univariate analyses. The issue of multiple
comparisons is discussed. A summary of the empirical evidence for the claimed
step change in Perth area is given. 

Statistical modelling in economic forecasting: semiparametrically spatiotemporal approach 12:10 Mon 23 May, 2011 :: 5.57 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dawlah Alsulami :: University of Adelaide
How to model spatiotemporal variation of housing prices is an important and challenging problem as it is of vital importance for both investors and policy makersto assess any movement in housing prices. In this seminar I will talk about the proposed model to estimate any movement in housing prices and measure the risk more accurately. 

Where is the best place in Australia to build an enhanced geothermal system? 12:10 Mon 30 May, 2011 :: 5.57 Ingkarni Wardli :: Ms Josephine Varney :: University of Adelaide
This week, my parents will join around 185,000 other Australians, in a significant move towards renewable energy, and install solar panels on the roof of their house. While solar energy is an important and useful form of renewable energy it is not able to provide power all the time.
Opponents of renewable energy maintain that until renewable energy can provide energy all the time, traditional fossilfuel generated power will be required to produce our baseload power.
Geothermal energy is a renewable energy that can provide energy all the time. However, due to its special geological requirements, it can only be produced in a very small number of places in the world.
An Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) is a new technology which allows geothermal energy to be produced in a much wider range of places than traditional geothermal energy. Currently, there are ten different companies investigating possible EGS sties within Australia. This seminar investigates the question, that all these companies hope they have answered well, 'Where is the best place in Australia for an EGS facility?' 

Optimal experimental design for stochastic population models 15:00 Wed 1 Jun, 2011 :: 7.15 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Dan Pagendam :: CSIRO, Brisbane
Markov population processes are popular models for studying a wide range of
phenomena including the spread of disease, the evolution of chemical reactions
and the movements of organisms in population networks (metapopulations). Our
ability to use these models effectively can be limited by our knowledge about
parameters, such as disease transmission and recovery rates in an epidemic.
Recently, there has been interest in devising optimal experimental designs for
stochastic models, so that practitioners can collect data in a manner that
maximises the precision of maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters for
these models. I will discuss some recent work on optimal design for a variety
of population models, beginning with some simple oneparameter models where the
optimal design can be obtained analytically and moving on to more complicated
multiparameter models in epidemiology that involve latent states and
nonexponentially distributed infectious periods. For these more complex
models, the optimal design must be arrived at using computational methods and we
rely on a Gaussian diffusion approximation to obtain analytical expressions for
Fisher's information matrix, which is at the heart of most optimality criteria
in experimental design. I will outline a simple crossentropy algorithm that
can be used for obtaining optimal designs for these models. We will also
explore the improvements in experimental efficiency when using the optimal
design over some simpler designs, such as the design where observations are
spaced equidistantly in time. 

Priority queueing systems with random switchover times and generalisations of the KendallTakacs equation 16:00 Wed 1 Jun, 2011 :: 7.15 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Andrei Bejan :: The University of Cambridge
In this talk I will review existing analytical results for priority queueing
systems with Poisson incoming flows, general service times and a single server
which needs some (random) time to switch between requests of different priority.
Specifically, I will discuss analytical results for the busy period and workload
of such systems with a special structure of switchover times.
The results related to the busy period can be seen as generalisations of the
famous KendallTak\'{a}cs functional equation for $MG1$:
being formulated in terms of LaplaceStieltjes transform, they represent systems
of functional recurrent equations.
I will present a methodology and algorithms of their numerical solution;
the efficiency of these algorithms is achieved by acceleration of the numerical
procedure of solving the classical KendallTak\'{a}cs equation.
At the end I will identify open problems with regard to such systems; these open
problems are mainly related to the modelling of switchover times.


Stochastic models of reaction diffusion 15:10 Fri 17 Jun, 2011 :: 7.15 Ingkarni Wardli :: Prof Jon Chapman :: Oxford University
Media...We consider two different position jump processes: (i) a random
walk on a lattice (ii) the Euler scheme for the Smoluchowski
differential equation. Both of these reduce to the diffusion equation as the time step
and size of the jump tend to zero.
We consider the problem of adding chemical reactions to these
processes, both at a surface and in the bulk. We show how the
"microscopic" parameters should be chosen to achieve the correct
"macroscopic" reaction rate. This choice is found to depend on
which stochastic model for diffusion is used. 

Routing in equilibrium 15:10 Tue 21 Jun, 2011 :: 7.15 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Timothy Griffin :: University of Cambridge
Media...Some path problems cannot be modelled
using semirings because the associated
algebraic structure is not distributive. Rather
than attempting to compute globally optimal
paths with such structures, it may be sufficient
in some cases to find locally optimal paths 
paths that represent a stable local equilibrium.
For example, this is the type of routing system that
has evolved to connect Internet Service Providers
(ISPs) where link weights implement
bilateral commercial relationships between them.
Previous work has shown that routing equilibria can
be computed for some nondistributive algebras
using algorithms in the BellmanFord family.
However, no polynomial time bound was known
for such algorithms. In this talk, we show that
routing equilibria can be computed using
Dijkstra's algorithm for one class of nondistributive
structures. This provides the first
polynomial time algorithm for computing locally
optimal solutions to path problems. 

Modelling computer network topologies through optimisation 12:10 Mon 1 Aug, 2011 :: 5.57 Ingkarni Wardli :: Mr Rhys Bowden :: University of Adelaide
The core of the Internet is made up of many different computers (called routers) in many different interconnected networks, owned and operated by many different organisations. A popular and important field of study in the past has been "network topology": for instance, understanding which routers are connected to which other routers, or which networks are connected to which other networks; that is, studying and modelling the connection structure of the Internet. Previous study in this area has been plagued by unreliable or flawed experimental data and debate over appropriate models to use. The Internet Topology Zoo is a new source of network data created from the information that network operators make public. In order to better understand this body of network information we would like the ability to randomly generate network topologies resembling those in the zoo. Leveraging previous wisdom on networks produced as a result of optimisation processes, we propose a simple objective function based on possible economic constraints. By changing the relative costs in the objective function we can change the form of the resulting networks, and we compare these optimised networks to a variety of networks found in the Internet Topology Zoo. 

The real thing 12:10 Wed 3 Aug, 2011 :: Napier 210 :: Dr Paul McCann :: School of Mathematical Sciences
Media...Let x be a real number. This familiar and seemingly innocent assumption opens up a world of infinite variety and information. We use some simple techniques (powers of two, geometric series) to examine some interesting consequences of generating random real numbers, and encounter both the best flash drive and the worst flash drive you will ever meet. Come "hold infinity in the palm of your hand", and contemplate eternity for about half an hour. Almost nothing is assumed, almost everything is explained, and absolutely all are welcome. 

Towards RogersRamanujan identities for the Lie algebra A_n 13:10 Fri 5 Aug, 2011 :: B.19 Ingkarni Wardli :: Prof Ole Warnaar :: University of Queensland
The RogersRamanujan identities are a pair of qseries identities proved by Leonard Rogers in 1894 which became famous two decades later as conjectures of Srinivasa Ramanujan. Since the 1980s it is known that the RogersRamanujan identities are in fact identities for characters of certain modules for the affine Lie algebra A_1. This poses the obvious question as to whether there exist RogersRamanujan identities for higher rank affine Lie algebras. In this talk I will describe some recent progress on this problem. I will also discuss a seemingly mysterious connection with the representation theory of quivers over finite fields. 

The Selberg integral 15:10 Fri 5 Aug, 2011 :: 7.15 Ingkarni Wardli :: Prof Ole Warnaar :: University of Queensland
Media...In this talk I will give a gentle introduction to the mathematics surrounding the Selberg integral. Selberg's integral, which first appeared in two rather unusual papers by Atle Selberg in the 1940s, has become famous as much for its association with (other) mathematical greats such as Enrico Bombieri and Freeman Dyson as for its importance in algebra (Coxeter groups), geometry (hyperplane arrangements) and number theory (the Riemann hypothesis). In this talk I will review the remarkable history of the Selberg integral and discuss some of its early applications. Time permitting I will end the talk by describing some of my own, ongoing work on Selberg integrals related to Lie algebras. 

Spectra alignment/matching for the classification of cancer and control patients 12:10 Mon 8 Aug, 2011 :: 5.57 Ingkarni Wardli :: Mr Tyman Stanford :: University of Adelaide
Proteomic timeofflight mass spectrometry produces a spectrum based on the peptides (chains of amino acids) in each patientâs serum sample. The spectra contain data points for an xaxis (peptide weight) and a yaxis (peptide frequency/count/intensity). It is our end goal to differentiate cancer (and subtypes) and control patients using these spectra. Before we can do this, peaks in these data must be found and common peptides to different spectra must be found. The data are noisy because of biotechnological variation and calibration error; data points for different peptide weights may in fact be same peptide. An algorithm needs to be employed to find common peptides between spectra, as performing alignment âby handâ is almost infeasible. We borrow methods suggested in the literature by metabolomic gas chromatographymass spectrometry and extend the methods for our purposes. In this talk I will go over the basic tenets of what we hope to achieve and the process towards this.


Boundaries of unsteady Lagrangian Coherent Structures 15:10 Wed 10 Aug, 2011 :: 5.57 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Sanjeeva Balasuriya :: Connecticut College, USA and the University of Adelaide
For steady flows, the boundaries of Lagrangian Coherent Structures
are segments of manifolds connected to fixed points. In the general
unsteady situation, these boundaries are timevarying manifolds of
hyperbolic trajectories. Locating these boundaries, and attempting
to meaningfully quantify fluid flux across them, is difficult since they
are moving with time. This talk uses a newly developed tangential movement
theory to locate these boundaries in nearlysteady compressible flows.


IGAAMSI Workshop: Groupvalued moment maps with applications to mathematics and physics 10:00 Mon 5 Sep, 2011 :: 7.15 Ingkarni Wardli
Media...Lecture series by Eckhard Meinrenken, University of Toronto.
Titles of individual lectures: 1) Introduction to Gvalued moment maps. 2) Dirac geometry and Witten's volume formulas.
3) DixmierDouady theory and prequantization. 4) Quantization of groupvalued moment maps. 5) Application to Verlinde formulas. These lectures will be supplemented by additional talks by invited speakers. For more details, please see the conference webpage. 

Alignment of time course gene expression data sets using Hidden Markov Models 12:10 Mon 5 Sep, 2011 :: 5.57 Ingkarni Wardli :: Mr Sean Robinson :: University of Adelaide
Time course microarray experiments allow for insight into biological processes by measuring gene expression over a time period of interest. This project is concerned with time course data from a microarray experiment conducted on a particular variety of grapevine over the development of the grape berries at a number of different vineyards in South Australia. The aim of the project is to construct a methodology for combining the data from the different vineyards in order to obtain more precise estimates of the underlying behaviour of the genes over the development process. A major issue in doing so is that the rate of development of the grape berries is different at different vineyards.
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are a well established methodology for modelling time series data in a number of domains and have been previously used for gene expression analysis. Modelling the grapevine data presents a unique modelling issue, namely the alignment of the expression profiles needed to combine the data from different vineyards. In this seminar, I will describe our problem, review HMMs, present an extension to HMMs and show some preliminary results modelling the grapevine data. 

Mathematical modelling of lobster populations in South Australia 12:10 Mon 12 Sep, 2011 :: 5.57 Ingkarni Wardli :: Mr John Feenstra :: University of Adelaide
Just how many lobsters are there hanging around the South Australian coastline? How is this number changing over time? What is the demographic breakdown of this number? And what does it matter? Find out the answers to these questions in my upcoming talk. I will provide a brief flavour of the kinds of quantitative methods involved, showcasing relevant applications of regression, population modelling, estimation, as well as simulation. A product of these analyses are biological performance indicators which are used by government to help decide on fishery controls such as yearly total allowable catch quotas. This assists in maintaining the sustainability of the fishery and hence benefits both the fishers and the lobsters they catch. 

Estimating transmission parameters for the swine flu pandemic 15:10 Fri 23 Sep, 2011 :: 7.15 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Kathryn Glass :: Australian National University
Media...Following the onset of a new strain of influenza with pandemic potential, policy makers need specific advice on how fast the disease is spreading, who is at risk, and what interventions are appropriate for slowing transmission. Mathematical models play a key role in comparing interventions and identifying the best response, but models are only as good as the data that inform them. In the early stages of the 2009 swine flu outbreak, many researchers estimated transmission parameters  particularly the reproduction number  from outbreak data. These estimates varied, and were often biased by data collection methods, misclassification of imported cases or as a result of early stochasticity in case numbers. I will discuss a number of the pitfalls in achieving good quality parameter estimates from early outbreak data, and outline how best to avoid them.
One of the early indications from swine flu data was that children were disproportionately responsible for disease spread. I will introduce a new method for estimating agespecific transmission parameters from both outbreak and seroprevalence data. This approach allows us to take account of empirical data on human contact patterns, and highlights the need to allow for asymmetric mixing matrices in modelling disease transmission between age groups. Applied to swine flu data from a number of different countries, it presents a consistent picture of higher transmission from children. 

Understanding the dynamics of event networks 15:00 Wed 28 Sep, 2011 :: B.18 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Amber Tomas :: The University of Oxford
Within many populations there are frequent communications between
pairs of individuals. Such communications might be emails sent within a
company, radio communications in a disaster zone or diplomatic
communications
between states. Often it is of interest to understand the factors that
drive the observed patterns of such communications, or to study how these
factors are changing over over time. Communications can be thought of as
events
occuring on the edges of a network which connects individuals in the
population.
In this talk I'll present a model for such communications which uses ideas
from
social network theory to account for the complex correlation structure
between
events. Applications to the Enron email corpus and the dynamics of hospital
ward transfer patterns will be discussed. 

Statistical analysis of schoolbased student performance data 12:10 Mon 10 Oct, 2011 :: 5.57 Ingkarni Wardli :: Ms Jessica Tan :: University of Adelaide
Join me in the journey of being a statistician for 15 minutes of your day (if you are not already one) and experience the task of data cleaning without having to get your own hands dirty. Most of you may have sat the Basic Skills Tests when at school or know someone who currently has to do the NAPLAN (National Assessment Program  Literacy and Numeracy) tests. Tests like these assess student progress and can be used to accurately measure school performance. In trying to answer the research question: "what conclusions about student progress and school performance can be drawn from NAPLAN data or data of a similar nature, using mathematical and statistical modelling and analysis techniques?", I have uncovered some interesting results about the data in my initial data analysis which I shall explain in this talk. 

Statistical modelling for some problems in bioinformatics 11:10 Fri 14 Oct, 2011 :: B.17 Ingkarni Wardli :: Professor Geoff McLachlan :: The University of Queensland
Media...In this talk we consider some statistical analyses of data arising in
bioinformatics. The problems include the detection of differential
expression in microarray geneexpression data, the clustering of
timecourse geneexpression data and, lastly, the analysis of
modernday cytometric data. Extensions are considered to the procedures
proposed for these three problems in McLachlan et al. (Bioinformatics, 2006),
Ng et al. (Bioinformatics, 2006), and Pyne et al. (PNAS, 2009), respectively.
The latter references are available at http://www.maths.uq.edu.au/~gjm/. 

On the role of mixture distributions in the modelling of heterogeneous data 15:10 Fri 14 Oct, 2011 :: 7.15 Ingkarni Wardli :: Prof Geoff McLachlan :: University of Queensland
Media...We consider the role that finite mixture distributions have played in the modelling of heterogeneous data, in particular for clustering continuous data via mixtures of normal distributions. A very brief history is given starting with the seminal papers by Day and Wolfe in the sixties before the appearance of the EM algorithm. It was the publication in 1977 of the latter algorithm by Dempster, Laird, and Rubin that greatly stimulated interest in the use of finite mixture distributions to model heterogeneous data. This is because the fitting of mixture models by maximum likelihood is a classic example of a problem that is simplified considerably by the EM's conceptual unification of maximum likelihood estimation from data that can be viewed as being incomplete. In recent times there has been a proliferation of applications in which the number of experimental units n is comparatively small but the underlying dimension p is extremely large as, for example, in microarraybased genomics and other highthroughput experimental approaches. Hence there has been increasing attention given not only in bioinformatics and machine learning, but also in mainstream statistics, to the analysis of complex data in this situation where n is small relative to p. The latter part of the talk shall focus on the modelling of such highdimensional data using mixture distributions. 

Likelihoodfree Bayesian inference: modelling drug resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis 15:10 Fri 21 Oct, 2011 :: 7.15 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Scott Sisson :: University of New South Wales
Media...A central pillar of Bayesian statistical inference is Monte Carlo integration, which is based on obtaining random samples from the posterior distribution. There are a number of standard ways to obtain these samples, provided that the likelihood function can be numerically evaluated. In the last 10 years, there has been a substantial push to develop methods that permit Bayesian inference in the presence of computationally intractable likelihood functions. These methods, termed ``likelihoodfree'' or approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), are now being applied extensively across many disciplines.
In this talk, I'll present a brief, nontechnical overview of the ideas behind likelihoodfree methods. I'll motivate and illustrate these ideas through an analysis of the epidemiological fitness cost of drug resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis. 

Staircase to heaven 13:10 Fri 4 Nov, 2011 :: B.19 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Burkard Polster :: Monash University
Media...How much of an overhang can we produce by stacking identical rectangular blocks at the edge of a table? It has been known for at least 100 years that the overhang can be as large as desired: we arrange the blocks in the form of a staircase. With $n$ blocks of length 2 the overhang can be made to sum to $1+\frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{3}+\frac{1}{4}+\cdots+\frac{1}{n}$. Since the harmonic series diverges, it follows that the overhang can be arranged to be as large as desired, simply by using a suitably large number of blocks.
Recently, a number of interesting twists have been added to this paradoxical staircase. I'll be talking about some of these new developments and in particular about a continuous counterpart of the staircase that I've been pondering together with my colleagues David Treeby and Marty Ross. 

Fluid flows in microstructured optical fibre fabrication 15:10 Fri 25 Nov, 2011 :: B.17 Ingkarni Wardli :: Mr Hayden Tronnolone :: University of Adelaide
Optical fibres are used extensively in modern telecommunications as they allow the transmission of information at high speeds. Microstructured optical fibres are a relatively new fibre design in which a waveguide for light is created by a series of air channels running along the length of the material. The flexibility of this design allows optical fibres to be created with adaptable (and previously unrealised) optical properties. However, the fluid flows that arise during fabrication can greatly distort the geometry, which can reduce the effectiveness of a fibre or render it useless. I will present an overview of the manufacturing process and highlight the difficulties. I will then focus on surfacetension driven deformation of the macroscopic version of the fibre extruded from a reservoir of molten glass, occurring during fabrication, which will be treated as a twodimensional Stokes flow problem. I will outline two different complexvariable numerical techniques for solving this problem along with comparisons of the results, both to other models and to experimental data.


Mixing, dynamics, and probability 15:10 Fri 2 Mar, 2012 :: B.21 Ingkarni Wardli :: A/Prof Gary Froyland :: University of New South Wales
Media...Many interesting natural phenomena are hard to predict.
When modelled as a dynamical system, this unpredictability is often the result of rapid separation of nearby trajectories.
Viewing the dynamics as acting on a probability measure, the mixing property states that two measurements (or random variables), evaluated at increasingly separated times, become independent in the timeseparation limit.
Thus, the later measurement becomes increasingly difficult to predict, given the outcome of the earlier measurement.
If this approach to independence occurs exponentially quickly in time, one can profitably use linear operator tools to analyse the dynamics.
I will give an overview of these techniques and show how they can be applied to answer mathematical questions, describe observed behaviour in fluid mixing, and analyse models of the ocean and atmosphere. 

IGA Workshop: The mathematical implications of gaugestring dualities 09:30 Mon 5 Mar, 2012 :: 7.15 Ingkarni Wardli :: Prof Rajesh Gopakumar :: HarishChandra Research Institute
Media...Lecture series by Rajesh Gopakumar (HarishChandra Research Institute). The lectures will be supplemented by talks by other invited speakers. 

String Theory and the Quest for Quantum Spacetime 15:10 Fri 9 Mar, 2012 :: Ligertwood 333 Law Lecture Theatre 2 :: Prof Rajesh Gopakumar :: HarishChandra Research Institute
Media...Space and time together constitute one of the most basic
elements of physical reality. Since Einstein spacetime has become an
active participant in the dynamics of the gravitational force.
However, our notion of a quantum spacetime is still rudimentary.
String theory, building upon hints provided from the physics of black
holes, seems to be suggesting a very novel, "holographic" picture of
what quantum spacetime might be. This relies on some very surprising
connections of gravity with quantum field theories (which provide the
framework for the description of the other fundamental interactions of
nature). In this talk, I will try and convey some of the flavour of
these connections as well as its significance. 

Forecasting electricity demand distributions using a semiparametric additive model 15:10 Fri 16 Mar, 2012 :: B.21 Ingkarni Wardli :: Prof Rob Hyndman :: Monash University
Media...Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in shortterm load allocation and longterm planning for future generation facilities and transmission augmentation. Planners must adopt a probabilistic view of potential peak demand levels, therefore density forecasts (providing estimates of the full probability distributions of the possible future values of the demand) are more helpful than point forecasts, and are necessary for utilities to evaluate and hedge the financial risk accrued by demand variability and forecasting uncertainty.
Electricity demand in a given season is subject to a range of uncertainties, including underlying population growth, changing technology, economic conditions, prevailing weather conditions (and the timing of those conditions), as well as the general randomness inherent in individual usage. It is also subject to some known calendar effects due to the time of day, day of week, time of year, and public holidays.
I will describe a comprehensive forecasting solution designed to take all the available information into account, and to provide forecast distributions from a few hours ahead to a few decades ahead. We use semiparametric additive models to estimate the relationships between demand and the covariates, including temperatures, calendar effects and some demographic and economic variables. Then we forecast the demand distributions using a mixture of temperature simulation, assumed future economic scenarios, and residual bootstrapping. The temperature simulation is implemented through a new seasonal bootstrapping method with variable blocks.
The model is being used by the state energy market operators and some electricity supply companies to forecast the probability distribution of electricity demand in various regions of Australia. It also underpinned the Victorian Vision 2030 energy strategy. 

IGA Workshop: Dualities in field theories and the role of Ktheory 09:30 Mon 19 Mar, 2012 :: 7.15 Ingkarni Wardli :: Prof Jonathan Rosenberg :: University of Maryland
Media...Lecture series by Jonathan Rosenberg (University of Maryland). There will be additional talks by other invited speakers. 

The de Rham Complex 12:10 Mon 19 Mar, 2012 :: 5.57 Ingkarni Wardli :: Mr Michael Albanese :: University of Adelaide
Media...The de Rham complex is of fundamental importance in differential geometry. After first introducing differential forms (in the familiar setting of Euclidean space), I will demonstrate how the de Rham complex elegantly encodes one half (in a sense which will become apparent) of the results from vector calculus. If there is time, I will indicate how results from the remaining half of the theory can be concisely expressed by a single, far more general theorem. 

Financial risk measures  the theory and applications of backward stochastic difference/differential equations with respect to the single jump process 12:10 Mon 26 Mar, 2012 :: 5.57 Ingkarni Wardli :: Mr Bin Shen :: University of Adelaide
Media...This is my PhD thesis submitted one month ago. Chapter 1 introduces the backgrounds of the research fields. Then each chapter is a published or an accepted paper.
Chapter 2, to appear in Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, establishes the theory of Backward Stochastic Difference Equations with respect to the single jump process in discrete time.
Chapter 3, published in Stochastic Analysis and Applications, establishes the theory of Backward Stochastic Differential Equations with respect to the single jump process in continuous time.
Chapter 2 and 3 consist of Part I Theory.
Chapter 4, published in Expert Systems With Applications, gives some examples about how to measure financial risks by the theory established in Chapter 2.
Chapter 5, accepted by Journal of Applied Probability, considers the question of an optimal transaction between two investors to minimize their risks. It's the applications of the theory established in Chapter 3.
Chapter 4 and 5 consist of Part II Applications. 

Fasttrack study of viscous flow over topography using 'Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics' 12:10 Mon 16 Apr, 2012 :: 5.57 Ingkarni Wardli :: Mr Stephen Wade :: University of Adelaide
Media...Motivated by certain tea room discussions, I am going to (attempt to) model the flow of a viscous fluid under gravity over conical topography. The method used is 'Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics' (SPH), which is an easytouse but perhaps limitedaccuracy computational method. The model could be extended to include solidification and thermodynamic effects that can also be implemented within the framework of SPH, and this has the obvious practical application to the modelling of the coverage of ice cream with ice magic, I mean, lava flows.
If I fail to achieve this within the next 4 weeks, I will have to go through a talk on SPH that I gave during honours instead. 

Correcting Errors in RSA Private Keys 12:10 Mon 23 Apr, 2012 :: 5.57 Ingkarni Wardli :: Mr Wilko Henecka :: University of Adelaide
Media...Let pk=(N,e) be an RSA public key with corresponding secret key sk=(d,p,q,...). Assume that we obtain partial errorfree information of sk, e.g., assume that we obtain half of the most significant bits of p. Then there are wellknown algorithms to recover the full secret key. As opposed to these algorithms that allow for correcting erasures of the key sk, we present for the first time a heuristic probabilistic algorithm that is capable of correcting errors in sk provided that e is small. That is, on input of a full but errorprone secret key sk' we reconstruct the original sk by correcting the faults.
More precisely, consider an error rate of d in [0,1), where we flip each bit in sk with probability d resulting in an erroneous key sk'. Our LasVegas type algorithm allows to recover sk from sk' in expected time polynomial in logN with success probability close to 1, provided that d is strictly less than 0.237. We also obtain a polynomial time LasVegas factorization algorithm for recovering the factorization (p,q) from an erroneous version with error rate d strictly less than 0.084. 

Mathematical modelling of the surface adsorption for methane on carbon nanostructures 12:10 Mon 30 Apr, 2012 :: 5.57 Ingkarni Wardli :: Mr Olumide Adisa :: University of Adelaide
Media...In this talk, methane (CH4) adsorption is investigated on both graphite and in the region between two aligned singlewalled carbon nanotubes, which we refer to as the groove site. The LennardâJones potential function and the continuous approximation is exploited to determine surface binding energies between a single CH4 molecule and graphite and between a single CH4 and two aligned singlewalled carbon nanotubes. The modelling indicates that for a CH4 molecule interacting with graphite, the binding energy of the system is minimized when the CH4 carbon is 3.83 angstroms above the surface of the graphitic carbon, while the binding energy of the CH4âgroove site system is minimized when the CH4 carbon is 5.17 angstroms away from the common axis shared by the two aligned singlewalled carbon nanotubes. These results confirm the current view that for larger groove sites, CH4 molecules in grooves are likely to move towards the outer surfaces of one of the singlewalled carbon nanotubes. The results presented in this talk are computationally efficient and are in good agreement with experiments and molecular dynamics simulations, and show that CH4 adsorption on graphite and groove surfaces is more favourable at lower temperatures and higher pressures. 

Multiscale models of collective cell behaviour: Linear or nonlinear diffusion? 15:10 Fri 4 May, 2012 :: B.21 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Matthew Simpson :: Queensland University of Technology
Media...Continuum diffusion models are often used to represent the collective motion of cell populations. Most previous studies have simply used linear diffusion to represent collective cell spreading, while others found that degenerate nonlinear diffusion provides a better match to experimental cell density profiles. There is no guidance available in the mathematical biology literature with regard to which approach is more appropriate. Furthermore, there is no knowledge of particular experimental measurements that can be made to distinguish between situations where these two models are appropriate. We provide a link between individualbased and continuum models using a multiscale approach in which we analyse the collective motion of a population of interacting agents in a generalized latticebased exclusion process. For round agents that occupy a single lattice site, we find that the relevant continuum description is a linear diffusion equation, whereas for elongated rodshaped agents that occupy L adjacent lattice sites we find that the relevant continuum description is a nonlinear diffusion equation related to the porous media equation. We show that there are several reasonable approaches for dealing with agent size effects, and that these different approaches are related mathematically through the concept of mean action time. We extend our results to consider proliferation and travelling waves where greater care must be taken to ensure that the continuum model replicates the discrete process. This is joint work with Dr Ruth Baker (Oxford) and Dr Scott McCue (QUT). 

Modelling protective antitumour immunity using a hybrid agentbased and delay differential equation approach 15:10 Fri 11 May, 2012 :: B.21 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Peter Kim :: University of Sydney
Media...Although cancers seem to consistently evade current medical treatments, the body's immune defences seem quite effective at controlling incipient tumours. Understanding how our immune systems provide such protection against earlystage tumours and how this protection could be lost will provide insight into designing nextgeneration immune therapies against cancer. To engage this problem, we formulate a mathematical model of the immune response against small, incipient tumours. The model considers the initial stimulation of the immune response in lymph nodes and the resulting immune attack on the tumour and is formulated as a hybrid agentbased and delay differential equation model. 

Change detection in rainfall times series for Perth, Western Australia 12:10 Mon 14 May, 2012 :: 5.57 Ingkarni Wardli :: Ms Farah Mohd Isa :: University of Adelaide
Media...There have been numerous reports that the rainfall in south Western Australia,
particularly around Perth has observed a step change decrease, which is
typically attributed to climate change. Four statistical tests are used to
assess the empirical evidence for this claim on time series from five
meteorological stations, all of which exceed 50 years. The tests used in this
study are: the CUSUM; Bayesian Change Point analysis; consecutive ttest and the
Hotelling's T^2statistic. Results from multivariate Hotelling's T^2 analysis are
compared with those from the three univariate analyses. The issue of multiple
comparisons is discussed. A summary of the empirical evidence for the claimed
step change in Perth area is given. 

Unknot recognition and the elusive polynomial time algorithm 15:10 Fri 18 May, 2012 :: B.21 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Benjamin Burton :: The University of Queensland
Media...What do practical topics such as linear programming and greedy
heuristics have to do with theoretical problems such as unknot
recognition and the Poincare conjecture? In this talk we explore new
approaches to old and difficult computational problems from geometry and
topology: how to tell whether a loop of string is knotted, or whether a
3dimensional space has no interesting topological features. Although
the best known algorithms for these problems run in exponential time,
there is increasing evidence that a polynomial time solution might be
possible. We outline several promising approaches in which
computational geometry, linear programming and greedy algorithms all
play starring roles. 

The change of probability measure for jump processes 12:10 Mon 28 May, 2012 :: 5.57 Ingkarni Wardli :: Mr Ahmed Hamada :: University of Adelaide
Media...In financial derivatives pricing theory, it is very common to change the probability measure from historical measure "real world" into a RiskNeutral measure as a development of the non arbitrage condition.
Girsanov theorem is the most known example of this technique and is used when prices randomness is modelled by Brownian motions. Other genuine candidates for modelling market randomness that have proved efficiency in recent literature are jump process, so how can a change of measure be performed for such processes?
This talk will address this question by introducing the non arbitrage condition, discussing Girsanov theorem for diffusion and jump processes and presenting a concrete example. 

Model turbulent floods based upon the Smagorinski large eddy closure 12:10 Mon 4 Jun, 2012 :: 5.57 Ingkarni Wardli :: Mr Meng Cao :: University of Adelaide
Media...Rivers, floods and tsunamis are often very turbulent. Conventional models of such environmental fluids are typically based on depthaveraged inviscid irrotational flow equations. We explore changing such a base to the turbulent Smagorinski large eddy closure. The aim is to more appropriately model the fluid dynamics of such complex environmental fluids by using such a turbulent closure. Large changes in fluid depth are allowed. Computer algebra constructs the slow manifold of the flow in terms of the fluid depth h and the mean turbulent lateral velocities u and v. The major challenge is to deal with the nonlinear stress tensor in the Smagorinski closure. The model integrates the effects of inertia, selfadvection, bed drag, gravitational forcing and turbulent dissipation with minimal assumptions. Although the resultant model is close to established models, the real outcome is creating a sound basis for the modelling so others, in their modelling of more complex situations, can systematically include more complex physical processes. 

Adventures with group theory: counting and constructing polynomial invariants for applications in quantum entanglement and molecular phylogenetics 15:10 Fri 8 Jun, 2012 :: B.21 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Peter Jarvis :: The University of Tasmania
Media...In many modelling problems in mathematics and physics, a standard
challenge is dealing with several repeated instances of a system under
study. If linear transformations are involved, then the machinery of
tensor products steps in, and it is the job of group theory to control how
the relevant symmetries lift from a single system, to having many copies.
At the level of group characters, the construction which does this is
called PLETHYSM.
In this talk all this will be contextualised via two case studies:
entanglement invariants for multipartite quantum systems, and Markov
invariants for tree reconstruction in molecular phylogenetics. By the end
of the talk, listeners will have understood why Alice, Bob and Charlie
love Cayley's hyperdeterminant, and they will know why the three squangles
 polynomial beasts of degree 5 in 256 variables, with a modest 50,000
terms or so  can tell us a lot about quartet trees! 

IGA Workshop: Dendroidal sets 14:00 Tue 12 Jun, 2012 :: Ingkarni Wardli B17 :: Dr Ittay Weiss :: University of the South Pacific
Media...A series of four 2hour lectures by Dr. Ittay Weiss.
The theory of dendroidal sets was introduced by Moerdijk and Weiss in 2007 in the study of homotopy operads in algebraic topology. In the five years that have past since then several fundamental and highly nontrivial results were established. For instance, it was established that dendroidal sets provide models for homotopy operads in a way that extends the JoyalLurie approach to homotopy categories. It can be shown that dendroidal sets provide new models in the study of nfold loop spaces. And it is very recently shown that dendroidal sets model all connective spectra in a way that extends the modeling of certain spectra by Picard groupoids.
The aim of the lecture series will be to introduce the concepts mentioned above, present the elementary theory, and understand the scope of the results mentioned as well as discuss the potential for further applications. Sources for the course will include the article "From Operads to Dendroidal Sets" (in the AMS volume on mathematical foundations of quantum field theory (also on the arXiv)) and the lecture notes by Ieke Moerdijk "simplicial methods for operads and algebraic geometry" which resulted from an advanced course given in Barcelona 3 years ago.
No prior knowledge of operads will be assumed nor any knowledge of homotopy theory that is more advanced then what is required for the definition of the fundamental group. The basics of the language of presheaf categories will be recalled quickly and used freely. 

Comparison of spectral and wavelet estimators of transfer function for linear systems 12:10 Mon 18 Jun, 2012 :: B.21 Ingkarni Wardli :: Mr Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar :: University of Adelaide
Media...We compare spectral and wavelet estimators of the response amplitude operator (RAO) of a linear system, with various input signals and added noise scenarios. The comparison is based on a model of a heaving buoy wave energy device (HBWED), which oscillates vertically as a single mode of vibration linear system.
HBWEDs and other single degree of freedom wave energy devices such as the oscillating wave surge convertors (OWSC) are currently deployed in the ocean, making single degree of freedom wave energy devices important systems to both model and analyse in some detail. However, the results of the comparison relate to any linear system.
It was found that the wavelet estimator of the RAO offers no advantage over the spectral estimators if both input and response time series data are noise free and long time series are available. If there is noise on only the response time series, only the wavelet estimator or the spectral estimator that uses the crossspectrum of the input and response signals in the numerator should be used. For the case of noise on only the input time series, only the spectral estimator that uses the crossspectrum in the denominator gives a sensible estimate of the RAO. If both the input and response signals are corrupted with noise, a modification to both the input and response spectrum estimates can provide a good estimator of the RAO. However, a combination of wavelet and spectral methods is introduced as an alternative RAO estimator.
The conclusions apply for autoregressive emulators of sea surface elevation, impulse, and pseudorandom binary sequences (PRBS) inputs. However, a wavelet estimator is needed in the special case of a chirp input where the signal has a continuously varying frequency. 

Continuous random walk models for solute transport in porous media 15:10 Fri 17 Aug, 2012 :: B.21 Ingkarni Wardli :: Prof Pavel Bedrikovetski :: The University of Adelaide
Media...The classical diffusion (thermal conductivity) equation was derived from the Master random walk equation and is parabolic. The main assumption was a probabilistic distribution of the jump length while the jump time is constant. Distribution of the jump time along with the jump length adds the second time derivative into the averaged equations, but the equation becomes ... elliptic! Where from to take an extra initial condition? We discuss how to pose the wellposed flow problem, exact 1d solution and numerous engineering applications. This is joint work with A. Shapiro and H. Yuan. 

Infectious diseases modelling: from biology to public health policy 15:10 Fri 24 Aug, 2012 :: B.20 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr James McCaw :: The University of Melbourne
Media...The mathematical study of humantohuman transmissible pathogens has
established itself as a complementary methodology to the traditional
epidemiological approach. The classic susceptibleinfectiousrecovered
model paradigm has been used to great effect to gain insight into the
epidemiology of endemic diseases such as influenza and pertussis, and
the emergence of novel pathogens such as SARS and pandemic influenza.
The modelling paradigm has also been taken within the host and used to
explain the withinhost dynamics of viral (or bacterial or parasite)
infections, with implications for our understanding of infection,
emergence of drug resistance and optimal druginterventions.
In this presentation I will provide an overview of the mathematical
paradigm used to investigate both biological and epidemiological
infectious diseases systems, drawing on case studies from influenza,
malaria and pertussis research. I will conclude with a summary of how
infectious diseases modelling has assisted the Australian government in
developing its pandemic preparedness and response strategies.


Star Wars Vs The Lord of the Rings: A Survival Analysis 12:10 Mon 27 Aug, 2012 :: B.21 Ingkarni Wardli :: Mr Christopher Davies :: University of Adelaide
Media...Ever wondered whether you are more likely to die in the Galactic Empire or Middle Earth? Well this is the postgraduate seminar for you!
I'll be attempting to answer this question using survival analysis, the statistical method of choice for investigating time to event data.
Spoiler Warning: This talk will contain references to the deaths of characters in the above movie sagas. 

Two classes of network structures that enable efficient information transmission 15:10 Fri 7 Sep, 2012 :: B.20 Ingkarni Wardli :: A/Prof Sanming Zhou :: The University of Melbourne
Media...What network topologies should we use in order to achieve efficient information transmission? Of course answer to this question depends on how we measure efficiency of information dissemination. If we measure it by the minimum gossiping time under the storeandforward, allport and fullduplex model, we show that certain Cayley graphs associated with Frobenius groups are `perfect' in a sense. (A Frobenius group is a permutation group which is transitive but not regular such that only the identity element can fix two points.) Such graphs are also optimal for alltoall routing in the sense that the maximum load on edges achieves the minimum. In this talk we will discuss this theory of optimal network design. 

Quantisation commutes with reduction 15:10 Fri 14 Sep, 2012 :: B.20 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Peter Hochs :: Leibniz University Hannover
Media...The "Quantisation commutes with reduction" principle is an idea from physics, which has powerful applications in mathematics. It basically states that the ways in which symmetry can be used to simplify a physical system in classical and quantum mechanics, are compatible. This provides a strong link between the areas in mathematics used to describe symmetry in classical and quantum mechanics: symplectic geometry and representation theory, respectively. It has been proved in the 1990s that quantisation indeed commutes with reduction, under the important assumption that all spaces and symmetry groups involved are compact. This talk is an introduction to this principle and, if time permits, its mathematical relevance. 

Krylov Subspace Methods or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love GMRes 12:10 Mon 17 Sep, 2012 :: B.21 Ingkarni Wardli :: Mr David Wilke :: University of Adelaide
Media...Many problems within applied mathematics require the solution of a linear system of equations. For instance, models of arterial umbilical blood flow are obtained through a finite element approximation, resulting in a linear, n x n system. For small systems the solution is (almost) trivial, but what happens when n is large? Say, n ~ 10^6? In this case matrix inversion is expensive (read: completely impractical) and we seek approximate solutions in a reasonable time.
In this talk I will discuss the basic theory underlying Krylov subspace methods; a class of nonstationary iterative methods which are currently the methodsofchoice for large, sparse, linear systems. In particular I will focus on the method of Generalised Minimum RESiduals (GMRes), which is of the most popular for nonsymmetric systems. It is hoped that through this presentation I will convince you that a) solving linear systems is not necessarily trivial, and that b) my lack of any tangible results is not (entirely) a result of my own incompetence. 

Electrokinetics of concentrated suspensions of spherical particles 15:10 Fri 28 Sep, 2012 :: B.21 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Bronwyn BradshawHajek :: University of South Australia
Electrokinetic techniques are used to gather specific information about concentrated dispersions such as electronic inks, mineral processing slurries, pharmaceutical products and biological fluids (e.g. blood). But, like most experimental techniques, intermediate quantities are measured, and consequently the method relies explicitly on theoretical modelling to extract the quantities of experimental interest. A selfconsistent cellmodel theory of electrokinetics can be used to determine the electrical conductivity of a dense suspension of spherical colloidal particles, and thereby determine the quantities of interest (such as the particle surface potential). The numerical predictions of this model compare well with published experimental results. High frequency asymptotic analysis of the cellmodel leads to some interesting conclusions. 

Rescaling the coalescent 12:30 Mon 8 Oct, 2012 :: B.21 Ingkarni Wardli :: Mr Adam Rohrlach :: University of Adelaide
Media...Recently I gave a short talk about how researchers use mathematics to estimate the time since a species' most recent common ancestor. I also pointed out why this generally doesn't work when a population hasn't had a constant population size. Then I quickly changed the subject. In this talk I aim to reintroduce the Coalescent Model, show how it works in general, and finally how researcher's deal with varying a population size. 

AD Model Builder and the estimation of lobster abundance 12:10 Mon 22 Oct, 2012 :: B.21 Ingkarni Wardli :: Mr John Feenstra :: University of Adelaide
Media...Determining how many millions of lobsters reside in our waters and how it changes over time is a central aim of lobster stock assessment. ADMB is powerful optimisation software to model and solve complex nonlinear problems using automatic differentiation and plays a major role in SA and worldwide in fisheries stock assessment analyses. In this talk I will provide a brief description of an example modelling problem, key features and use of ADMB. 

Epidemic models in socially structured populations: when are simple models too simple? 14:00 Thu 25 Oct, 2012 :: 5.56 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Lorenzo Pellis :: The University of Warwick
Both age and household structure are recognised as important heterogeneities affecting epidemic spread of infectious pathogens, and many models exist nowadays that include either or both forms of heterogeneity. However, different models may fit aggregate epidemic data equally well and nevertheless lead to different predictions of public health interest. I will here present an overview of stochastic epidemic models with increasing complexity in their social structure, focusing in particular on households models. For these models, I will present recent results about the definition and computation of the basic reproduction number R0 and its relationship with other threshold parameters. Finally, I will use these results to compare models with no, either or both age and household structure, with the aim of quantifying the conditions under which each form of heterogeneity is relevant and therefore providing some criteria that can be used to guide model design for realtime predictions. 

Epidemic models in socially structured populations: when are simple models too simple? 14:00 Thu 25 Oct, 2012 :: 5.56 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Lorenzo Pellis :: The University of Warwick
Both age and household structure are recognised as important heterogeneities affecting epidemic spread of infectious pathogens, and many models exist nowadays that include either or both forms of heterogeneity. However, different models may fit aggregate epidemic data equally well and nevertheless lead to different predictions of public health interest. I will here present an overview of stochastic epidemic models with increasing complexity in their social structure, focusing in particular on households models. For these models, I will present recent results about the definition and computation of the basic reproduction number R0 and its relationship with other threshold parameters. Finally, I will use these results to compare models with no, either or both age and household structure, with the aim of quantifying the conditions under which each form of heterogeneity is relevant and therefore providing some criteria that can be used to guide model design for realtime predictions. 

Thinfilm flow in helicallywound channels with small torsion 15:10 Fri 26 Oct, 2012 :: B.21 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Yvonne Stokes :: University of Adelaide
The study of flow in open helicallywound channels has application to many natural and industrial flows. We will consider laminar flow down helicallywound channels of rectangular cross section and with small torsion, in which the fluid depth is small. Assuming a steadystate flow that is independent of position along the axis of the channel, the flow solution may be determined in the twodimensional cross section of the channel. A thinfilm approximation yields explicit expressions for the fluid velocity in terms of the freesurface shape. The latter satisfies an interesting nonlinear ordinary differential equation that, for a channel of rectangular cross section, has an analytical solution. The predictions of the thinfilm model are shown to be in good agreement with much more computationally intensive solutions of the smallhelixtorsion NavierStokes equations.
This work has particular relevance to spiral particle separators used in the minerals processing industry. Early work on modelling of particleladen thinfilm flow in spiral channels will also be discussed. 

Thinfilm flow in helicallywound channels with small torsion 15:10 Fri 26 Oct, 2012 :: B.21 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Yvonne Stokes :: University of Adelaide
The study of flow in open helicallywound channels has application to many natural and industrial flows. We will consider laminar flow down helicallywound channels of rectangular cross section and with small torsion, in which the fluid depth is small. Assuming a steadystate flow that is independent of position along the axis of the channel, the flow solution may be determined in the twodimensional cross section of the channel. A thinfilm approximation yields explicit expressions for the fluid velocity in terms of the freesurface shape. The latter satisfies an interesting nonlinear ordinary differential equation that, for a channel of rectangular cross section, has an analytical solution. The predictions of the thinfilm model are shown to be in good agreement with much more computationally intensive solutions of the smallhelixtorsion NavierStokes equations.
This work has particular relevance to spiral particle separators used in the minerals processing industry. Early work on modelling of particleladen thinfilm flow in spiral channels will also be discussed. 

Spatiotemporally Autoregressive Partially Linear Models with Application to the Housing Price Indexes of the United States 12:10 Mon 12 Nov, 2012 :: B.21 Ingkarni Wardli :: Ms Dawlah Alsulami :: University of Adelaide
Media...We propose a Spatiotemporal Autoregressive Partially Linear Regression ( STARPLR) model for data observed irregularly over space and regularly in time. The model is capable of catching possible non linearity and nonstationarity in space by coefficients to depend on locations. We suggest twostep procedure to estimate both the coefficients and the unknown function, which is readily implemented and can be computed even for large spatiotemoral data sets. As an illustration, we apply our model to analyze the 51 States' House Price Indexes (HPIs) in USA. 

Asymptotic independence of (simple) twodimensional Markov processes 15:10 Fri 1 Mar, 2013 :: B.18 Ingkarni Wardli :: Prof Guy Latouche :: Universite Libre de Bruxelles
Media...The onedimensional birthand death model is one of the basic processes in applied probability but difficulties appear as one moves to higher dimensions. In the positive recurrent case, the situation is singularly simplified if the stationary distribution has productform. We investigate the conditions under which this property holds, and we show how to use the knowledge to find productform approximations for otherwise unmanageable random walks. This is joint work with Masakiyo Miyazawa and Peter Taylor. 

A multiscale approach to reactiondiffusion processes in domains with microstructure 15:10 Fri 15 Mar, 2013 :: B.18 Ingkarni Wardli :: Prof Malte Peter :: University of Augsburg
Media...Reactiondiffusion processes occur in many materials with microstructure such as biological cells, steel or concrete. The main difficulty in modelling and simulating accurately such processes is to account for the fine microstructure of the material. One method of upscaling multiscale problems, which has proven reliable for obtaining feasible macroscopic models, is the method of periodic homogenisation.
The talk will give an introduction to multiscale modelling of chemical mechanisms in domains with microstructure as well as to the method of periodic homogenisation. Moreover, a few aspects of solving the resulting systems of equations numerically will also be discussed. 

Modular forms: a rough guide 12:10 Mon 18 Mar, 2013 :: B.19 Ingkarni Wardli :: Damien Warman :: University of Adelaide
Media...I recently found the need to learn a little about what I had naively believed to be an abstruse branch of number theory, but which turns out to be a ubiquitous and intriguing theory.
I'll introduce some of the geometry underlying the elementary theory of modular functions and modular forms. We'll look at some pictures and play with sage, time permitting. 

How fast? Bounding the mixing time of combinatorial Markov chains 15:10 Fri 22 Mar, 2013 :: B.18 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Catherine Greenhill :: University of New South Wales
Media...A Markov chain is a stochastic process which is "memoryless",
in that the next state of the chain depends only on the current state,
and not on how it got there. It is a classical result that an ergodic
Markov chain has a unique stationary distribution.
However, classical theory does not provide any information on the rate of
convergence to stationarity. Around 30 years ago, the mixing time of
a Markov chain was introduced to measure the number of steps required
before the distribution of the chain is within some small distance of
the stationary distribution. One reason why this is important is that
researchers in areas such as physics and biology use Markov chains to
sample from large sets of interest. Rigorous bounds on the mixing time
of their chain allows these researchers to have confidence in their results.
Bounding the mixing time of combinatorial Markov chains can be a challenge, and there are only a few approaches available. I will discuss the main methods and give examples for each (with pretty pictures). 

A glimpse at the Langlands program 15:10 Fri 12 Apr, 2013 :: B.18 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Masoud Kamgarpour :: University of Queensland
Media...Abstract: In the late 1960s, Robert Langlands made a series of surprising conjectures relating fundamental concepts from number theory, representation theory, and algebraic geometry. Langlands' conjectures soon developed into a highprofile international research program known as the Langlands program. Many fundamental problems, including the ShimuraTaniyamaWeil conjecture (partially settled by Andrew Wiles in his proof of the Fermat's Last Theorem), are particular cases of the Langlands program. In this talk, I will discuss some of the motivation and results in this program. 

The boundary conditions for macroscale modelling of a discrete diffusion system with periodic diffusivity 12:10 Mon 29 Apr, 2013 :: B.19 Ingkarni Wardli :: Chen Chen :: University of Adelaide
Media...Many mathematical and engineering problems have a multiscale nature. There are a vast of theories supporting multiscale modelling on infinite domain, such as homogenization theory and centre manifold theory. To date, there are little consideration of the correct boundary conditions to be used at the edge of macroscale model. In this seminar, I will present how to derive macroscale boundary conditions for the diffusion system. 

Filtering Theory in Modelling the Electricity Market 12:10 Mon 6 May, 2013 :: B.19 Ingkarni Wardli :: Ahmed Hamada :: University of Adelaide
Media...In mathematical finance, as in many other fields where applied mathematics is a powerful tool, we assume that a model is good enough when it captures different sources of randomness affecting the quantity of interests, which in this case is the electricity prices. The power market is very different from other markets in terms of the randomness sources that can be observed in the prices feature and evolution. We start from suggesting a new model that simulates the electricity prices, this new model is constructed by adding a periodicity term, a jumps terms and a positives mean reverting term. The later term is driven by a nonobservable Markov process. So in order to prices some financial product, we have to use some of the filtering theory to deal with the nonobservable process, these techniques are gaining very much of interest from practitioners and researchers in the field of financial mathematics. 

Progress in the prediction of buoyancyaffected turbulence 15:10 Fri 17 May, 2013 :: B.18 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Daniel Chung :: University of Melbourne
Media...Buoyancyaffected turbulence represents a significant challenge to our
understanding, yet it dominates many important flows that occur in the
ocean and atmosphere. The presentation will highlight some recent progress
in the characterisation, modelling and prediction of buoyancyaffected
turbulence using direct and largeeddy simulations, along with implications
for the characterisation of mixing in the ocean and the lowcloud feedback
in the atmosphere. Specifically, direct numerical simulation data of
stratified turbulence will be employed to highlight the importance of
boundaries in the characterisation of turbulent mixing in the ocean. Then,
a subgridscale model that captures the anisotropic character of stratified
mixing will be developed for largeeddy simulation of buoyancyaffected
turbulence. Finally, the subgridscale model is utilised to perform a
systematic largeeddy simulation investigation of the archetypal lowcloud
regimes, from which the link between the lowertropospheric stability
criterion and the cloud fraction interpreted. 

Coincidences 14:10 Mon 20 May, 2013 :: 7.15 Ingkarni Wardli :: A/Prof. Robb Muirhead :: School of Mathematical Sciences
Media...This is a lighthearted (some would say contentfree) talk about coincidences, those surprising concurrences of events that are often perceived as meaningfully related, with no apparent causal connection. Time permitting, it will touch on topics like:
Patterns in data and the dangers of looking for patterns, unspecified ahead of time, and trying to "explain" them; e.g. post hoc subgroup analyses, cancer clusters, conspiracy theories ...
Matching problems; e.g. the birthday problem and extensions
People who win a lottery more than once  how surprised should we really be? What's the question we should be asking?
When you become familiar with a new word, and see it again soon afterwards, how surprised should you be?
Caution: This is a shortened version of a talk that was originally prepared for a group of nonmathematicians and nonstatisticians, so it's mostly nontechnical. It probably does not contain anything you don't already know  it will be an amazing coincidence if it does! 

Multiscale modelling couples patches of wavelike simulations 12:10 Mon 27 May, 2013 :: B.19 Ingkarni Wardli :: Meng Cao :: University of Adelaide
Media...A multiscale model is proposed to significantly reduce the expensive numerical simulations of complicated waves over large spatial domains. The multiscale model is built from given microscale simulations of complicated physical processes such as sea ice or turbulent shallow water. Our long term aim is to enable macroscale simulations obtained by coupling small patches of simulations together over large physical distances. This initial work explores the coupling of patch simulations of wavelike pdes. With the line of development being to water waves we discuss the dynamics of two complementary fields called the 'depth' h and 'velocity' u. A staggered grid is used for the microscale simulation of the depth h and velocity u. We introduce a macroscale staggered grid to couple the microscale patches. Linear or quadratic interpolation provides boundary conditions on the field in each patch. Linear analysis of the whole coupled multiscale system establishes that the resultant macroscale dynamics is appropriate. Numerical simulations support the linear analysis. This multiscale method should empower the feasible computation of large scale simulations of wavelike dynamics with complicated underlying physics. 

Heat kernel estimates on noncompact Riemannian manifolds: why and how? 15:10 Fri 7 Jun, 2013 :: B.18 Ingkarni Wardli :: Prof Thierry Coulhon :: Australian National University
Media...We will describe what is known and remains to be known about the connection between the large scale geometry of noncompact Riemannian manifolds
(and more general metric measure spaces) and large time estimates of their heat kernel. We will show how some of these estimates can be characterised in terms of Sobolev inequalities and give applications to the boundedness of Riesz transforms. 

Invariant Theory: The 19th Century and Beyond 15:10 Fri 21 Jun, 2013 :: B.18 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Jarod Alper :: Australian National University
Media...A central theme in 19th century mathematics was invariant theory, which was viewed as a bridge between geometry and algebra. David Hilbert revolutionized the field with two seminal papers in 1890 and 1893 with techniques such as Hilbert's basis theorem, Hilbert's Nullstellensatz and Hilbert's syzygy theorem that spawned the modern field of commutative algebra. After Hilbert's groundbreaking work, the field of invariant theory remained largely inactive until the 1960's when David Mumford revitalized the field by reinterpreting Hilbert's ideas in the context of algebraic geometry which ultimately led to the influential construction of the moduli space of smooth curves. Today invariant theory remains a vital research area with connections to various mathematical disciplines: representation theory, algebraic geometry, commutative algebra, combinatorics and nonlinear differential operators.
The goal of this talk is to provide an introduction to invariant theory with an emphasis on Hilbert's and Mumford's contributions. Time permitting, I will explain recent research with Maksym Fedorchuk and David Smyth which exploits the ideas of Hilbert, Mumford as well as Kempf to answer a classical question concerning the stability of algebraic curves. 

The Hamiltonian Cycle Problem and Markov Decision Processes 15:10 Fri 2 Aug, 2013 :: B.18 Ingkarni Wardli :: Prof Jerzy Filar :: Flinders University
Media...We consider the famous Hamiltonian cycle problem (HCP) embedded in a Markov decision process (MDP). More specifically, we consider a moving object on a graph G where, at each vertex, a controller may select an arc emanating from that vertex according to a probabilistic decision rule. A stationary policy is simply a control where these decision rules are time invariant. Such a policy induces a Markov chain on the vertices of the graph. Therefore, HCP is equivalent to a search for a stationary policy that induces a 01 probability transition matrix whose nonzero entries trace out a Hamiltonian cycle in the graph. A consequence of this embedding is that we may consider the problem over a number of, alternative, convex  rather than discrete  domains. These include: (a) the space of stationary policies, (b) the more restricted but, very natural, space of doubly stochastic matrices induced by the graph, and (c) the associated spaces of socalled "occupational measures". This approach to the HCP has led to both theoretical and algorithmic approaches to the underlying HCP problem. In this presentation, we outline a selection of results generated by this line of research. 

Four hats, three prisoners, two colours and a jailer 12:35 Mon 5 Aug, 2013 :: B.19 Ingkarni Wardli :: Kale Davies :: University of Adelaide
Media...It was a dark and stormy night. Theodore Jailer sat alone in his office scrawling notes on a piece of paper, muttering to himself in frustration. Suddenly he stops, his eyes widen in excitement and a smile spreads across his face. No, not a smile, but a grimace, for you see, evil was afoot! For Jailer, who was the jailer at a local prison had devised a nefarious scheme in order to execute all of the prisoners once and for all. Can his evil plans be thwarted in time? Stay tuned to find out! 

Thinfilm flow in helical channels 12:10 Mon 9 Sep, 2013 :: B.19 Ingkarni Wardli :: David Arnold :: University of Adelaide
Media...Spiral particle separators are used in the mineral processing industry to refine ores. A slurry, formed by mixing crushed ore with a fluid, is run down a helical channel and at the end of the channel, the particles end up sorted in different sections of the channel. Design of such devices is largely experimentally based, and mathematical modelling of flow in helical channels is relatively limited. In this talk, I will outline some of the work that I have been doing on thinfilm flow in helical channels. 

Controlling disease, one household at a time. 12:10 Mon 23 Sep, 2013 :: B.19 Ingkarni Wardli :: Michael Lydeamore :: University of Adelaide
Pandemics and Epidemics have always caused significant disruption to society. Attempting to model each individual in any reasonable sized population is unfeasible at best, but we can get surprisingly good results just by looking at a single household in a population. In this talk, I'll try to guide you through the logic I've discovered this year, and present some of the key results we've obtained so far, as well as provide a brief indication of what's to come. 

Modelling the South Australian garfish population slice by slice. 12:10 Mon 14 Oct, 2013 :: B.19 Ingkarni Wardli :: John Feenstra :: University of Adelaide
Media...In this talk I will provide a taste of how South Australian garfish populations are modelled. The role and importance of garfish 'slices' will be explained and how these help produce important reporting quantities of yearly recruitment, legalsize biomass, and exploitation rate within a framework of an age and length based population model. 

Modelling and optimisation of group doseresponse challenge experiments 12:10 Mon 28 Oct, 2013 :: B.19 Ingkarni Wardli :: David Price :: University of Adelaide
Media...An important component of scientific research is the 'experiment'. Effective design of these experiments is important and, accordingly, has received significant attention under the heading 'optimal experimental design'. However, until recently, little work has been done on optimal experimental design for experiments where the underlying process can be modelled by a Markov chain. In this talk, I will discuss some of the work that has been done in the field of optimal experimental design for Markov Chains, and some of the work that I have done in applying this theory to doseresponse challenge experiments for the bacteria Campylobacter jejuni in chickens. 

Recent developments in special holonomy manifolds 12:10 Fri 1 Nov, 2013 :: Ingkarni Wardli 7.15 :: Prof Robert Bryant :: Duke University
One of the big classification results in differential geometry from the past century has been the classification of the possible holonomies of affine manifolds, with the major first step having been taken by Marcel Berger in his 1954 thesis. However, Berger's classification was only partial, and, in the past 20 years, an extensive research effort has been expended to complete this classification and extend it in a number of ways. In this talk, after recounting the major parts of the history of the subject, I will discuss some of the recent results and surprising new examples discovered as a byproduct of research into Finsler geometry. If time permits, I will also discuss some of the open problems in the subject. 

Developing Multiscale Methodologies for Computational Fluid Mechanics 12:10 Mon 11 Nov, 2013 :: B.19 Ingkarni Wardli :: Hammad Alotaibi :: University of Adelaide
Media...Recently the development of multiscale methods is one of the most fertile research areas in mathematics, physics, engineering and computer science. The need for multiscale modeling comes usually from the fact that the available macroscale models are not accurate enough, and the microscale models are not efficient enough. By combining both viewpoints, one hopes to arrive at a reasonable compromise between accuracy and efficiency.
In this seminar I will give an overview of the recent efforts on developing multiscale methods such as patch dynamics scheme which is used to address an important class of time dependent multiscale problems. 

All at sea with spectral analysis 11:10 Tue 19 Nov, 2013 :: Ingkarni Wardli Level 5 Room 5.56 :: A/Prof Andrew Metcalfe :: The University of Adelaide
The steady state response of a single degree of freedom damped linear stystem to a sinusoidal input is a sinusoidal function at the same frequency, but generally with a different amplitude and a phase shift. The analogous result for a random stationary input can be described in terms of input and response spectra and a transfer function description of the linear system.
The practical use of this result is that the parameters of a linear system can be estimated from the input and response spectra, and the response spectrum can be predicted if the transfer function and input spectrum are known.
I shall demonstrate these results with data from a small ship in the North Sea. The results from the sea trial raise the issue of nonlinearity, and second order amplitude response functons are obtained using autoregressive estimators.
The possibility of using wavelets rather than spectra is consedred in the context of single degree of freedom linear systems.
Everybody welcome to attend.
Please not a change of venue  we will be in room 5.56 

A gentle introduction to bubble evolution in HeleShaw flows 15:10 Fri 22 Nov, 2013 :: 5.58 (Ingkarni Wardli) :: Dr Scott McCue :: QUT
A HeleShaw cell is easy to make and serves as a fun toy for an applied mathematician to play with. If we inject air into a HeleShaw cell that is otherwise filled with viscous fluid, we can observe a bubble of air growing in size. The process is highly unstable, and the bubble boundary expands in an uneven fashion, leading to striking fingering patterns (look up HeleShaw cell or SaffmanTaylor instability on YouTube). From a mathematical perspective, modelling these HeleShaw flows is interesting because the governing equations are sufficiently ``simple'' that a considerable amount of analytical progress is possible. Indeed, there is no other context in which (genuinely) twodimensional moving boundary problems are so tractable. More generally, HeleShaw flows are important as they serve as prototypes for more complicated (and important) physical processes such as crystal growth and diffusion limited aggregation. I will give an introduction to some of the main ideas and summarise some of my present research in this area.


A few flavours of optimal control of Markov chains 11:00 Thu 12 Dec, 2013 :: B18 :: Dr Sam Cohen :: Oxford University
Media...In this talk we will outline a general view of optimal control of a continuoustime Markov chain, and how this naturally leads to the theory of Backward Stochastic Differential Equations. We will see how this class of equations gives a natural setting to study these problems, and how we can calculate numerical solutions in many settings. These will include problems with payoffs with memory, with random terminal times, with ergodic and infinitehorizon value functions, and with finite and infinitely many states. Examples will be drawn from finance, networks and electronic engineering. 

The density property for complex manifolds: a strong form of holomorphic flexibility 12:10 Fri 24 Jan, 2014 :: Ingkarni Wardli B20 :: Prof Frank Kutzschebauch :: University of Bern
Compared with the real differentiable case, complex manifolds in general are more rigid, their groups of holomorphic diffeomorphisms are rather small (in general trivial). A long known exception to this behavior is affine nspace C^n for n at least 2. Its group of holomorphic diffeomorphisms is infinite dimensional. In the late 1980s Andersen and Lempert proved a remarkable
theorem which stated in its generalized version due to Forstneric and Rosay that any local holomorphic phase flow given on a Runge subset of C^n can be locally uniformly approximated by a global holomorphic diffeomorphism. The main ingredient in the proof was formalized by Varolin and called the density property: The Lie algebra generated by complete holomorphic vector fields is dense in the Lie algebra of all holomorphic vector fields. In these manifolds a similar local to global approximation of AndersenLempert type holds. It is a precise way of saying that the group of holomorphic diffeomorphisms is large.
In the talk we will explain how this notion is related to other more recent flexibility notions in complex geometry, in particular to the notion of a OkaForstneric manifold. We will give examples of manifolds with the density property and sketch applications of the density property. If time permits we will explain criteria for the density property developed by Kaliman and the speaker.


The effects of preexisting immunity 15:10 Fri 7 Mar, 2014 :: B.18 Ingkarni Wardli :: Associate Professor Jane Heffernan :: York University, Canada
Media...Immune system memory, also called immunity, is gained as a result of primary infection or vaccination, and can be boosted after vaccination or secondary infections. Immunity is developed so that the immune system is primed to react and fight a pathogen earlier and more effectively in secondary infections. The effects of memory, however, on pathogen propagation in an individual host (inhost) and a population (epidemiology) are not well understood. Mathematical models of infectious diseases, employing dynamical systems, computer simulation and bifurcation analysis, can provide projections of pathogen propagation, show outcomes of infection and help inform public health interventions. In the Modelling Infection and Immunity (MI^2) lab, we develop and study biologically informed mathematical models of infectious diseases at both levels of infection, and combine these models into comprehensive multiscale models so that the effects of individual immunity in a population can be determined. In this talk we will discuss some of the interesting mathematical phenomenon that arise in our models, and show how our results are directly applicable to what is known about the persistence of infectious diseases. 

The phase of the scattering operator from the geometry of certain infinite dimensional Lie groups 12:10 Fri 14 Mar, 2014 :: Ingkarni Wardli B20 :: Jouko Mickelsson :: University of Helsinki
This talk is about some work on the phase of the time evolution operator in QED and QCD, related to the geometry of certain infinitedimensional
groups (essentially modelled by PSDO's). 

Semiclassical restriction estimates 12:10 Fri 4 Apr, 2014 :: Ingkarni Wardli B20 :: Melissa Tacy :: University of Adelaide
Eigenfunctions of Hamiltonians arise naturally in the theory of quantum mechanics as stationary states of quantum systems. Their eigenvalues have an interpretation as the square root of E, where E is the energy of the system. We wish to better understand the high energy limit which defines the boundary between quantum and classical mechanics. In this talk I will focus on results regarding the restriction of eigenfunctions to lower dimensional subspaces, in particular to hypersurfaces. A convenient way to study such problems is to reframe them as problems in semiclassical analysis. 

Flow barriers and flux in unsteady flows 15:10 Fri 4 Apr, 2014 :: B.21 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Sanjeeva Balasuriya :: The University of Adelaide
Media...How does one define the boundary of the ozone hole, an oceanic eddy, or Jupiter's Great Red Spot? These occur in flows which are unsteady (nonautonomous), that is, which change with time, and therefore any boundary must as well. In steady (autonomous) flows, defining flow boundaries is straightforward: one first finds fixed points of the flow, and then determines entities in space which are attracted to or repelled from these points as time progresses. These are respectively the stable and unstable manifolds of the fixed points, and can be shown to partition space into regions of different types of flow. This talk will focus on the required modifications to this idea for determining flow barriers in the more realistic unsteady context. An application to maximising mixing in microfluidic devices will also be presented. 

CARRYING CAPACITY FOR FINFISH AQUACULTURE IN SPENCER GULF: RAPID ASSESSMENT USING HYDRODYNAMIC AND NEARFIELD, SEMI  ANALYTIC SOLUTIONS 15:10 Fri 11 Apr, 2014 :: 5.58 Ingkarni Wardli :: Associate Professor John Middleton :: SARDI Aquatic Sciences and University of Adelaide
Aquaculture farming involves daily feeding of finfish and a subsequent excretion of nutrients into Spencer Gulf. Typically, finfish farming is done in six or so 50m diameter cages and over 600m X 600m lease sites. To help regulate the industry, it is desired that the finfish feed rates and the associated nutrient flux into the ocean are determined such that the maximum nutrient concentration c does not exceed a prescribed value (say cP) for ecosystem health. The prescribed value cP is determined by guidelines from the E.P.A. The concept is known as carrying capacity since limiting the feed rates limits the biomass of the farmed finfish.
Here, we model the concentrations that arise from a constant input flux (F) of nutrients in a source region (the cage or lease) using the (depthaveraged) two dimensional, advection diffusion equation for constant and sinusoidal (tides) currents. Application of the divergence theorem to this equation results in a new scale estimate of the maximum flux F (and thus feed rate) that is given by
F= cP /T* (1)
where cP is the maximum allowed concentration and T* is a new time scale of âflushingâ that involves both advection and diffusion. The scale estimate (1) is then shown to compare favourably with mathematically exact solutions of the advection diffusion equation that are obtained using Greenâs functions and Fourier transforms. The maximum nutrient flux and associated feed rates are then estimated everywhere in Spencer Gulf through the development and validation of a hydrodynamic model. The model provides seasonal averages of the mean currents U and horizontal diffusivities KS that are needed to estimate T*. The diffusivities are estimated from a shear dispersal model of the tides which are very large in the gulf. The estimates have been provided to PIRSA Fisheries and Aquaculture to assist in the sustainable expansion of finfish aquaculture.


Outlier removal using the Bayesian information criterion for groupbased trajectory modelling 12:10 Mon 28 Apr, 2014 :: B.19 Ingkarni Wardli :: Chris Davies :: University of Adelaide
Media...Attributes measured longitudinally can be used to define discrete paths of measurements, or trajectories, for each individual in a given population. Groupbased trajectory modelling methods can be used to identify subgroups of trajectories within a population, such that trajectories that are grouped together are more similar to each other than to trajectories in distinct groups. Existing methods generally allocate every individual trajectory into one of the estimated groups. However this does not allow for the possibility that some individuals may be following trajectories so different from the rest of the population that they should not be included in a groupbased trajectory model. This results in these outlying trajectories being treated as though they belong to one of the groups, distorting the estimated trajectory groups and any subsequent analyses that use them.
We have developed an algorithm for removing outlying trajectories based on the maximum change in Bayesian information criterion (BIC) due to removing a single trajectory. As well as deciding which trajectory to remove, the number of groups in the model can also change. The decision to remove an outlying trajectory is made by comparing the loglikelihood contributions of the observations to those of simulated samples from the estimated groupbased trajectory model. In this talk the algorithm will be detailed and an application of its use will be demonstrated. 

Stochastic models of evolution: Trees and beyond 15:10 Fri 16 May, 2014 :: B.18 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Barbara Holland :: The University of Tasmania
Media...In the first part of the talk I will give a general introduction to phylogenetics, and discuss some of the mathematical and statistical issues that arise in trying to infer evolutionary trees. In particular, I will discuss how we model the evolution of DNA along a phylogenetic tree using a continuous time Markov process.
In the second part of the talk I will discuss how to express the twostate continuoustime Markov model on phylogenetic trees in such a way that allows its extension to more general models. In this framework we can model convergence of species as well as divergence (speciation). I will discuss the identifiability (or otherwise) of the models that arise in some simple cases. Use of a statistical framework means that we can use established techniques such as the AIC or likelihood ratio tests to decide if datasets show evidence of convergent evolution. 

Group meeting 15:10 Fri 6 Jun, 2014 :: 5.58 Ingkarni Wardli :: Meng Cao and Trent Mattner :: University of Adelaide
Meng Cao:: Multiscale modelling couples patches of nonlinear wavelike simulations ::
Abstract:
The multiscale gaptooth scheme is built from given microscale simulations of complicated physical processes to empower macroscale simulations. By coupling small patches of simulations over unsimulated physical gaps, large savings in computational time are possible. So far the gaptooth scheme has been developed for dissipative systems, but wave systems are also of great interest. This article develops the gaptooth scheme to the case of nonlinear microscale simulations of wavelike systems. Classic macroscale interpolation provides a generic coupling between patches that achieves arbitrarily high order consistency between the multiscale scheme and the underlying microscale dynamics. Eigenanalysis indicates that the resultant gaptooth scheme empowers feasible computation of large scale simulations of wavelike dynamics with complicated underlying physics. As an pilot study, we implement numerical simulations of dambreaking waves by the gaptooth scheme. Comparison between a gaptooth simulation, a microscale simulation over the whole domain, and some published experimental data on dam breaking, demonstrates that the gaptooth scheme feasibly computes large scale wavelike dynamics with computational savings.
Trent Mattner :: Coupled atmospherefire simulations of the Canberra 2003 bushfires using WRFSfire :: Abstract:
The Canberra fires of January 18, 2003 are notorious for the extreme fire behaviour and fireatmospheretopography interactions that occurred, including leeslope fire channelling, pyrocumulonimbus development and tornado formation. In this talk, I will discuss coupled fireweather simulations of the Canberra fires using WRFSFire. In these simulations, a firebehaviour model is used to dynamically predict the evolution of the fire front according to local atmospheric and topographic conditions, as well as the associated heat and moisture fluxes to the atmosphere. It is found that the predicted fire front and heat flux is not too bad, bearing in mind the complexity of the problem and the severe modelling assumptions made. However, the predicted moisture flux is too low, which has some impact on atmospheric dynamics. 

Modelling the meanfield behaviour of cellular automata 12:10 Mon 4 Aug, 2014 :: B.19 Ingkarni Wardli :: Kale Davies :: University of Adelaide
Media...Cellular automata (CA) are latticebased models in which agents fill the lattice sites and behave according to some specified rule. CA are particularly useful when modelling cell behaviour and as such many people consider CA model in which agents undergo motility and proliferation type events. We are particularly interested in predicting the average behaviour of these models. In this talk I will show how a system of differential equations can be derived for the system and discuss the difficulties that arise in even the seemingly simple case of a CA with motility and proliferation. 

Hydrodynamics and rheology of selfpropelled colloids 15:10 Fri 8 Aug, 2014 :: B17 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Sarthok Sircar :: University of Adelaide
The subcellular world has many components in common with soft condensed matter systems (polymers, colloids and liquid crystals). But it has novel properties, not present in traditional complex fluids, arising from a rich spectrum of nonequilibrium behavior: flocking, chemotaxis and bioconvection.
The talk is divided into two parts. In the first half, we will (get an idea on how to) derive a hydrodynamic model for selfpropelled particles of an arbitrary shape from first principles, in a sufficiently dilute suspension limit, moving in a 3dimensional space inside a viscous solvent. The model is then restricted to particles with ellipsoidal geometry to quantify the interplay of the longrange excluded volume and the shortrange selfpropulsion effects. The expression for the constitutive stresses, relating the kinetic theory with the momentum transport equations, are derived using a combination of the virtual work principle (for extra elastic stresses) and symmetry arguments (for active stresses).
The second half of the talk will highlight on my current numerical expertise. In particular we will exploit a specific class of spectral basis functions together with RK4 timestepping to determine the dynamical phases/structures as well as phasetransitions of these ellipsoidal clusters. We will also discuss on how to define the order (or orientation) of these clusters and understand the other rheological quantities.


Modelling biological gel mechanics 12:10 Mon 8 Sep, 2014 :: B.19 Ingkarni Wardli :: James Reoch :: University of Adelaide
Media...The behaviour of gels such as collagen is the result of complex interactions between mechanical and chemical forces. In this talk, I will outline the modelling approaches we are looking at in order to incorporate the influence of cell behaviour alongside chemical potentials, and the various circumstances which lead to gel swelling and contraction. 

A Random Walk Through Discrete State Markov Chain Theory 12:10 Mon 22 Sep, 2014 :: B.19 Ingkarni Wardli :: James Walker :: University of Adelaide
Media...This talk will go through the basics of Markov chain theory; including how to construct a continuoustime Markov chain (CTMC), how to adapt a Markov chain to include nonmemoryless distributions, how to simulate CTMC's and some key results. 

Inferring absolute population and recruitment of southern rock lobster using only catch and effort data 12:35 Mon 22 Sep, 2014 :: B.19 Ingkarni Wardli :: John Feenstra :: University of Adelaide
Media...Abundance estimates from a datalimited version of catch survey analysis are compared to those from a novel oneparameter deterministic method. Bias of both methods is explored using simulation testing based on a more complex datarich stock assessment population dynamics fishery operating model, exploring the impact of both varying levels of observation error in data as well as model process error. Recruitment was consistently better estimated than legal size population, the latter most sensitive to increasing observation errors. A hybrid of the datalimited methods is proposed as the most robust approach. A more statistically conventional errorinvariables approach may also be touched upon if enough time. 

A Hybrid Markov Model for Disease Dynamics 12:35 Mon 29 Sep, 2014 :: B.19 Ingkarni Wardli :: Nicolas Rebuli :: University of Adelaide
Media...Modelling the spread of infectious diseases is fundamental to protecting ourselves from potentially devastating epidemics. Among other factors, two key indicators for the severity of an epidemic are the size of the epidemic and the time until the last infectious individual is removed. To estimate the distribution of the size and duration of an epidemic (within a realistic population) an epidemiologist will typically use Monte Carlo simulations of an appropriate Markov process. However, the number of states in the simplest Markov epidemic model, the SIR model, is quadratic in the population size and so Monte Carlo simulations are computationally expensive. In this talk I will discuss two methods for approximating the SIR Markov process and I will demonstrate the approximation error by comparing probability distributions and estimates of the distributions of the final size and duration of an SIR epidemic. 

Modelling segregation distortion in multiparent crosses 15:00 Mon 17 Nov, 2014 :: 5.57 Ingkarni Wardli :: Rohan Shah (joint work with B. Emma Huang and Colin R. Cavanagh) :: The University of Queensland
Construction of highdensity genetic maps has been made feasible by lowcost highthroughput genotyping technology; however, the process is still complicated by biological, statistical and computational issues. A major challenge is the presence of segregation distortion, which can be caused by selection, difference in fitness, or suppression of recombination due to introgressed segments from other species. Alien introgressions are common in major crop species, where they have often been used to introduce beneficial genes from wild relatives.
Segregation distortion causes problems at many stages of the map construction process, including assignment to linkage groups and estimation of recombination fractions. This can result in incorrect ordering and estimation of map distances. While discarding markers will improve the resulting map, it may result in the loss of genomic regions under selection or containing beneficial genes (in the case of introgression).
To correct for segregation distortion we model it explicitly in the estimation of recombination fractions. Previously proposed methods introduce additional parameters to model the distortion, with a corresponding increase in computing requirements. This poses difficulties for large, densely genotyped experimental populations. We propose a method imposing minimal additional computational burden which is suitable for highdensity map construction in large multiparent crosses. We demonstrate its use modelling the known Sr36 introgression in wheat for an eightparent complex cross.


Predicting pressure drops in pipelines due to pump trip events 12:10 Mon 2 Mar, 2015 :: Napier LG29 :: David Arnold :: University of Adelaide
Media...Sunwater is a Queensland company that designs, builds and manages largescale water infrastructure such as dams, weirs and pipelines. In this talk, I will discuss one of the aspects that is crucial in the design stage of long pipelines, the pipelines ability to withstand large pressure disturbances caused by pump trip events. A pump trip is a sudden, unplanned shutdown of a pump, which causes potentially destructive pressure waves to propagate through the pipe network. Accurate simulation of such events is time consuming and costly, so rules of thumb and intuition are used during initial planning and design of a pipeline project. I will discuss some simple mathematical models for pump trip events, show some results, and discuss how they could be used in the initial design process. 

Multiscale modelling of multicellular biological systems: mechanics, development and disease 03:10 Fri 6 Mar, 2015 :: Lower Napier LG24 :: Dr James Osborne :: University of Melbourne
When investigating the development and function of multicellular biological systems it is not enough to only consider the behaviour of individual cells in isolation. For example when studying tissue development, how individual cells interact, both mechanically and biochemically, influences the resulting tissues form and function. In this talk we present a multiscale modelling framework for simulating the development and function of multicellular biological systems (in particular tissues). Utilising the natural structural unit of the cell, the framework consists
of three main scales: the tissue level (macroscale); the cell level (mesoscale); and the subcellular level (microscale), with multiple interactions occurring between all scales. The cell level is central to the framework and cells are modelled as discrete interacting entities using one of a number of possible modelling paradigms, including lattice based models (cellular automata and cellular Potts) and offlattice based models (cell centre and vertex based representations). The subcellular level concerns numerous metabolic and biochemical processes represented by interaction networks rendered stochastically or into ODEs. The outputs from such systems influence the behaviour of the cell level affecting properties such as adhesion and also influencing cell mitosis and apoptosis. At the tissue level we consider factors or restraints that influence the cells, for example the distribution of a nutrient or messenger molecule, which is represented by field equations, on a growing domain, with individual cells functioning as
sinks and/or sources. The modular approach taken within the framework enables more realistic behaviour to be considered at each scale.
This framework is implemented within the Open Source Chaste library (Cancer Heart and Soft Tissue Environment, (http://www.cs.ox.ac.uk/chaste/)
and has been used to model biochemical and biomechanical interactions in various biological systems. In this talk we present the key ideas of the framework along with applications within the fields of development and disease. 

How do we quantify the filamentous growth in yeast colony? 12:10 Mon 30 Mar, 2015 :: Ingkarni Wardli 715 Conference Room :: Dr. Benjamin Binder :: School of Mathematical Sciences
Media...In this talk we will develop a systematic method to measure the spatial patterning of colony morphology. A hybrid modelling approach of the growth process will also be discussed. 

Group Meeting 15:10 Fri 24 Apr, 2015 :: N218 Engineering North :: Dr Ben Binder :: University of Adelaide
Talk (Dr Ben Binder): How do we quantify the filamentous growth in a yeast colony?
Abstract: In this talk we will develop a systematic method to measure the spatial patterning of yeast colony morphology. The methods are applicable to other physical systems with circular spatial domains, for example, batch mixing fluid devices. A hybrid modelling approach of the yeast growth process will also be discussed.
After the seminar, Ben will start a group discussion by sharing some information and experiences on attracting honours/PhD students to the group. 

A Collision Algorithm for Sea Ice 12:10 Mon 4 May, 2015 :: Napier LG29 :: Lucas Yiew :: University of Adelaide
Media...The waveinduced collisions between sea ice are highly complex and nonlinear, and involves a multitude of subprocesses. Several collision models do exist, however, to date, none of these models have been successfully integrated into seaice forecasting models.
A key component of a collision model is the development of an appropriate collision algorithm. In this seminar I will present a timestepping, eventdriven algorithm to detect, analyse and implement the pre and postcollision processes. 

Haven't I seen you before? Accounting for partnership duration in infectious disease modeling 15:10 Fri 8 May, 2015 :: Level 7 Conference Room Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Joel Miller :: Monash University
Media...Our ability to accurately predict and explain the spread of an infectious disease is a significant factor in our ability to implement effective interventions. Our ability to accurately model disease spread depends on how accurately we capture the various effects. This is complicated by the fact that infectious disease spread involves a number of time scales. Four that are particularly relevant are: duration of infection in an individual, duration of partnerships between individuals, the time required for an epidemic to spread through the population, and the time required for the population structure to change (demographic or otherwise).
Mathematically simple models of disease spread usually make the implicit assumption that the duration of partnerships is by far the shortest time scale in the system. Thus they miss out on the tendency for infected individuals to deplete their local pool of susceptibles. Depending on the details of the disease in question, this effect may be significant.
I will discuss work done to reduce these assumptions for "SIR" (SusceptibleInfectedRecovered) diseases, which allows us to interpolate between populations which are static and populations which change partners rapidly in closed populations (no entry/exit). I will then discuss early results in applying these methods to diseases such as HIV in which the population time scales are relevant. 

Medical Decision Making 12:10 Mon 11 May, 2015 :: Napier LG29 :: Eka Baker :: University of Adelaide
Media...Practicing physicians make treatment decisions based on clinical trial data every day. This data is based on trials primarily conducted on healthy volunteers, or on those with only the disease in question. In reality, patients do have existing conditions that can affect the benefits and risks associated with receiving these treatments.
In this talk, I will explain how we modified an already existing Markov model to show the progression of treatment of a single condition over time. I will then explain how we adapted this to a different condition, and then created a combined model, which demonstrated how both diseases and treatments progressed on the same patient over their lifetime. 

Big things are weird 12:10 Mon 25 May, 2015 :: Napier LG29 :: Luke KeatingHughes :: University of Adelaide
Media...The pyramids of Giza, the depths of the Mariana trench, the massive Einstein Cross Quasar; all of these things are big and weird. Big weird things aren't just apparent in the physical world though, they appear in mathematics too! In this talk I will try to motivate a mathematical big thing and then show that it is weird.
In particular, we will introduce the necessary topology and homotopy theory in order to show that although all finite dimensional spheres are (almost canonically) noncontractible spaces  an infinite dimensional sphere IS contractible! This result's significance will then be explained in the context of Kuiper's Theorem if time permits. 

Group Meeting 15:10 Fri 29 May, 2015 :: EM 213 :: Dr Judy Bunder :: University of Adelaide
Talk : Patch dynamics for efficient exascale simulations
Abstract
Massive parallelisation has lead to a dramatic increase in available computational power.
However, data transfer speeds have failed to keep pace and are the major limiting factor in the development of exascale computing. New algorithms must be developed which minimise the transfer of data. Patch dynamics is a computational macroscale modelling scheme which provides a coarse macroscale solution of a problem defined on a fine microscale by dividing the domain into many nonoverlapping, coupled patches. Patch dynamics is readily adaptable to massive parallelisation as each processor core can evaluate the dynamics on one, or a few, patches. However, patch coupling conditions interpolate across the unevaluated parts of the domain between patches and require almost continuous data transfer. We propose a modified patch dynamics scheme which minimises data transfer by only reevaluating the patch coupling conditions at `mesoscale' time scales which are significantly larger than the microscale time of the microscale problem. We analyse and quantify the error arising from patch dynamics with mesoscale temporal coupling. 

Dirac operators and Hamiltonian loop group action 12:10 Fri 24 Jul, 2015 :: Engineering and Maths EM212 :: Yanli Song :: University of Toronto
A definition to the geometric quantization for compact Hamiltonian Gspaces is given by Bott, defined as the index of the SpincDirac operator on the manifold. In this talk, I will explain how to generalize this idea to the Hamiltonian LGspaces. Instead of quantizing infinitedimensional manifolds directly, we use its equivalent finitedimensional model, the quasiHamiltonian Gspaces. By constructing twisted spinor bundle and twisted prequantum bundle on the quasiHamiltonian Gspace, we define a Dirac operator whose index are given by positive energy representation of loop groups. A key role in the construction will be played by the algebraic cubic Dirac operator for loop algebra. If time permitted, I will also explain how to prove the quantization commutes with reduction theorem for Hamiltonian LGspaces under this framework. 

Dynamics on Networks: The role of local dynamics and global networks on hypersynchronous neural activity 15:10 Fri 31 Jul, 2015 :: Ingkarni Wardli B21 :: Prof John Terry :: University of Exeter, UK
Media...Graph theory has evolved into a useful tool for studying complex brain networks inferred from a variety of measures of neural activity, including fMRI, DTI, MEG and EEG. In the study of neurological disorders, recent work has discovered differences in the structure of graphs inferred from patient and control cohorts. However, most of these studies pursue a purely observational approach; identifying correlations between properties of graphs and the cohort which they describe, without consideration of the underlying mechanisms. To move beyond this necessitates the development of mathematical modelling approaches to appropriately interpret network interactions and the alterations in brain dynamics they permit.
In the talk we introduce some of these concepts with application to epilepsy, introducing a dynamic network approach to study resting state EEG recordings from a cohort of 35 people with epilepsy and 40 adult controls. Using this framework we demonstrate a strongly significant difference between networks inferred from the background activity of people with epilepsy in comparison to normal controls. Our findings demonstrate that a mathematical model based analysis of routine clinical EEG provides significant additional information beyond standard clinical interpretation, which may ultimately enable a more appropriate mechanistic stratification of people with epilepsy leading to improved diagnostics and therapeutics. 

In vitro models of colorectal cancer: why and how? 15:10 Fri 7 Aug, 2015 :: B19 Ingkarni Wardli :: Dr Tamsin Lannagan :: Gastrointestinal Cancer Biology Group, University of Adelaide / SAHMRI
1 in 20 Australians will develop colorectal cancer (CRC) and it is the second most common cause of cancer death. Similar to many other cancer types, it is the metastases rather than the primary tumour that are lethal, and prognosis is defined by Ã¢ÂÂhow farÃ¢ÂÂ the tumour has spread at time of diagnosis. Modelling in vivo behavior through rapid and relatively inexpensive in vitro assays would help better target therapies as well as help develop new treatments. One such new in vitro tool is the culture of 3D organoids. Organoids are a biologically stable means of growing, storing and testing treatments against bowel cancer. To this end, we have just set up a human colorectal organoid bank across Australia. This consortium will help us to relate in vitro growth patterns to in vivo behaviour and ultimately in the selection of patients for personalized therapies. Organoid growth, however, is complex. There appears to be variable growth rates and growth patterns. Together with members of the ECMS we recently gained funding to better quantify and model spatial structures in these colorectal organoids. This partnership will aim to directly apply the expertise within the ECMS to patient care. 

A relaxed introduction to resamplingbased multiple testing 12:10 Mon 10 Aug, 2015 :: Benham Labs G10 :: Ngoc Vo :: University of Adelaide
Media...Pvalues and false positives are two phrases that you commonly see thrown around in scientific literature. More often than not, experimenters and analysts are required to quote pvalues as a measure of statistical significance â how strongly does your evidence support your hypothesis? But what happens when this "strong evidence" is just a coincidence? What happens if you have lots of theses hypotheses â up to tens of thousands â to test all at the same time and most of your significant findings end up being just "coincidences"? 

Modelling terrorism risk  can we predict future trends? 12:10 Mon 10 Aug, 2015 :: Benham Labs G10 :: Stephen Crotty :: University of Adelaide
Media...As we are all aware, the incidence of terrorism is increasing in the world today. This is confirmed when viewing terrorism events since 1970 as a time series. Can we model this increasing trend and use it to predict terrorism events in the future? Probably not, but we'll give it a go anyway. 

Vanishing lattices and moduli spaces 12:10 Fri 28 Aug, 2015 :: Ingkarni Wardli B17 :: David Baraglia :: The University of Adelaide
Media...Vanishing lattices are symplectic analogues of root systems. As with roots systems, they admit a classification in terms of certain Dynkin diagrams (not the usual ones from Lie theory). In this talk I will discuss this classification and if there is time I will outline my work (in progress) showing that the monodromy of the SL(n,C) Hitchin fibration is essentially a vanishing lattice. 

Bezout's Theorem 12:10 Mon 7 Sep, 2015 :: Benham Labs G10 :: David Bowman :: University of Adelaide
Media...Generically, a line intersects a parabola at two distinct points. BezoutÃ¢ÂÂs theorem generalises this idea to the intersection of two arbitrary polynomial plane curves. We discuss exceptional cases and how they are corrected by introducing the notion of multiplicity and by extending the plane to projective space. We shall also discuss applications, time permitting.


Queues and cooperative games 15:00 Fri 18 Sep, 2015 :: Ingkarni Wardli B21 :: Moshe Haviv :: Department of Statistics and the Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, The Hebrew Universit
Media...The area of cooperative game theory deals with models in which a number of individuals, called players, can form coalitions so as to improve the utility of its members. In many cases, the formation of the grand coalition is a natural result of some negotiation or a bargaining procedure.
The main question then is how the players should split the gains due to their cooperation among themselves. Various solutions have been suggested among them the Shapley value, the nucleolus and the core.
Servers in a queueing system can also join forces. For example, they can exchange service capacity among themselves or serve customers who originally seek service at their peers. The overall performance improves and the question is how they should split the gains, or,
equivalently, how much each one of them needs to pay or be paid in order to cooperate with the others. Our major focus is in the core of the resulting cooperative game and in showing that in many queueing games the core is not empty.
Finally, customers who are served by the same server can also be looked at as players who form a grand coalition, now inflicting damage on each other in the form of additional waiting time. We show how cooperative game theory, specifically the AumannShapley prices, leads to a way in which this damage can be attributed to individual customers or groups of customers. 

Predicting the Winning Time of a Stage of the Tour de France 12:10 Mon 21 Sep, 2015 :: Benham Labs G10 :: Nic Rebuli :: University of Adelaide
Media...Sports can be lucrative, especially popular ones. But for all of us mere mortals, the only money we will ever glean from sporting events is through gambling (responsibly). When it comes to cycling, people generally choose their favourites based on individual and team performance, throughout the world cycling calendar. But what can be said for the duration of a given stage or the winning time of the highly sort after General Classification? In this talk I discuss a basic model for predicting the winning time of the Tour de France. I then apply this model to predicting the outcome of the 2012 and 2013 Tour de France and discuss the results in context. 

Real Lie Groups and Complex Flag Manifolds 12:10 Fri 9 Oct, 2015 :: Ingkarni Wardli B17 :: Joseph A. Wolf :: University of California, Berkeley
Media...Let G be a complex simple direct limit group. Let G_R be a real form of G that corresponds to an hermitian symmetric space. I'll describe the corresponding bounded symmetric domain in the context of the Borel embedding, Cayley transforms, and the BergmanShilov boundary. Let Q be a parabolic subgroup of G. In finite dimensions this means that G/Q is a complex projective variety, or equivalently has a Kaehler metric invariant under a maximal compact subgroup of G. Then I'll show just how the bounded symmetric domains describe cycle spaces for open G_R orbits on G/Q. These cycle spaces include the complex bounded symmetric domains. In finite dimensions they are tightly related to moduli spaces for compact Kaehler manifolds and to representations of semisimple Lie groups; in infinite dimensions there are more problems than answers. Finally, time permitting, I'll indicate how some of this goes over to real and to quaternionic bounded symmetric domains.


Modelling Directionality in Stationary Geophysical Time Series 12:10 Mon 12 Oct, 2015 :: Benham Labs G10 :: Mohd Mahayaudin Mansor :: University of Adelaide
Media...Many time series show directionality inasmuch as plots against time and against timetogo are qualitatively different, and there is a range of statistical tests to quantify this effect. There are two strategies for allowing for directionality in time series models. Linear models are reversible if and only if the noise terms are Gaussian, so one strategy is to use linear models with nonGaussian noise. The alternative is to use nonlinear models. We investigate how nonGaussian noise affects directionality in a first order autoregressive process AR(1) and compare this with a threshold autoregressive model with two thresholds. The findings are used to suggest possible improvements to an AR(9) model, identified by an AIC criterion, for the average yearly sunspot numbers from 1700 to 1900. The improvement is defined in terms of onestepahead forecast errors from 1901 to 2014. 

The Mathematics of Crime 15:10 Fri 23 Oct, 2015 :: Ingkarni Wardli B21 :: Prof Andrea Bertozzi :: UCLA
Media...Law enforcement agencies across the US have discovered that partnering with a team of mathematicians and social scientists from UCLA can help them determine where crime is likely to occur. Dr. Bertozzi will talk about the fascinating story behind her participation on the UCLA team that developed a âpredictive policingâ computer program that zerosin on areas that have the highest probability of crime. In addition, the use of mathematics in studying gang crimes and other criminal activities will also be discussed. Commercial use of the "predictivepolicing" program allows communities to put police officers in the right place at the right time, stopping crime before it happens. 

Nearmotiontrapping in rings of cylinders (and why this is the worst possible wave energy device) 15:10 Fri 30 Oct, 2015 :: Ingkarni Wardli B21 :: Dr Hugh Wolgamot :: University of Western Australia
Motion trapping structures can oscillate indefinitely when floating in an ideal fluid. This talk discusses a simple structure which is predicted to have very close to perfect trapping behaviour, where the structure has been investigated numerically and (for the first time) experimentally. While endless oscillations were evidently not observed experimentally, remarkable differences between 'tuned' and 'detuned' structures were still apparent, and simple theory is sufficient to explain much of the behaviour. A connection with wave energy will be briefly explored, though the link is not fruitful! 

Ocean dynamics of Gulf St Vincent: a numerical study 12:10 Mon 2 Nov, 2015 :: Benham Labs G10 :: Henry Ellis :: University of Adelaide
Media...The aim of this research is to determine the physical dynamics of ocean circulation within Gulf St. Vincent, South Australia, and the exchange of momentum, nutrients, heat, salt and other water properties between the gulf and shelf via Investigator Strait and Backstairs Passage. The project aims to achieve this through the creation of highresolution numerical models, combined with new and historical observations from a moored instrument package, satellite data, and shipboard surveys.
The quasirealistic highresolution models are forced using boundary conditions generated by existing larger scale ROMS models, which in turn are forced at the boundary by a global model, creating a global to regional to local model network. Climatological forcing is done using European Centres for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) data sets and is consistent over the regional and local models. A series of conceptual models are used to investigate the relative importance of separate physical processes in addition to fully forced quasirealistic models.
An outline of the research to be undertaken is given:
ÃÂ¢ÃÂÃÂ¢ Connectivity of Gulf St. Vincent with shelf waters including seasonal variation due to wind and thermoclinic patterns;
ÃÂ¢ÃÂÃÂ¢ The role of winter time cooling and formation of eddies in flushing the gulf;
ÃÂ¢ÃÂÃÂ¢ The formation of a temperature front within the gulf during summer time; and
ÃÂ¢ÃÂÃÂ¢ The connectivity and importance of nutrient rich, cool, water upwelling from the Bonney Coast with the gulf via Backstairs Passage during summer time. 

Modelling Coverage in RNA Sequencing 09:00 Mon 9 Nov, 2015 :: Ingkarni Wardli 5.57 :: Arndt von Haeseler :: Max F Perutz Laboratories, University of Vienna
Media...RNA sequencing (RNAseq) is the method of choice for measuring the expression of RNAs in a cell population. In an RNAseq experiment, sequencing the full length of larger RNA molecules requires fragmentation into smaller pieces to be compatible with limited read lengths of most deepsequencing technologies. Unfortunately, the issue of nonuniform coverage across a genomic feature has been a concern in RNAseq and is attributed to preferences for certain fragments in steps of library preparation and sequencing. However, the disparity between the observed nonuniformity of read coverage in RNAseq data and the assumption of expected uniformity elicits a query on the read coverage profile one should expect across a transcript, if there are no biases in the sequencing protocol. We propose a simple model of unbiased fragmentation where we find that the expected coverage profile is not uniform and, in fact, depends on the ratio of fragment length to transcript length. To compare the nonuniformity proposed by our model with experimental data, we extended this simple model to incorporate empirical attributes matching that of the sequenced transcript in an RNAseq experiment. In addition, we imposed an experimentally derived distribution on the frequency at which fragment lengths occur.
We used this model to compare our theoretical prediction with experimental data and with the uniform coverage model. If time permits, we will also discuss a potential application of our model. 

Weak globularity in homotopy theory and higher category theory 12:10 Thu 12 Nov, 2015 :: Ingkarni Wardli B19 :: Simona Paoli :: University of Leicester
Media...Spaces and homotopy theories are fundamental objects of study of algebraic topology. One way to study these objects is to break them into smaller components with the Postnikov decomposition. To describe such decomposition purely algebraically we need higher categorical structures. We describe one approach to modelling these structures based on a new paradigm to build weak higher categories, which is the notion of weak globularity. We describe some of their connections to both homotopy theory and higher category theory. 

Use of epidemic models in optimal decision making 15:00 Thu 19 Nov, 2015 :: Ingkarni Wardli 5.57 :: Tim Kinyanjui :: School of Mathematics, The University of Manchester
Media...Epidemic models have proved useful in a number of applications in epidemiology. In this work, I will present two areas that we have used modelling to make informed decisions. Firstly, we have used an age structured mathematical model to describe the transmission of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in a developed country setting and to explore different vaccination strategies. We found that delayed infant vaccination has significant potential in reducing the number of hospitalisations in the most vulnerable group and that most of the reduction is due to indirect protection. It also suggests that marked public health benefit could be achieved through RSV vaccine delivered to age groups not seen as most at risk of severe disease. The second application is in the optimal design of studies aimed at collection of householdstratified infection data. A design decision involves making a tradeoff between the number of households to enrol and the sampling frequency. Two commonly used study designs are considered: crosssectional and cohort. The search for an optimal design uses Bayesian methods to explore the joint parameterdesign space combined with Shannon entropy of the posteriors to estimate the amount of information for each design. We found that for the crosssectional designs, the amount of information increases with the sampling intensity while the cohort design often exhibits a tradeoff between the number of households sampled and the intensity of followup. Our results broadly support the choices made in existing data collection studies. 

Group meeting 15:10 Fri 20 Nov, 2015 :: Ingkarni Wardli B17 :: Mr Jack Keeler :: University of East Anglia / University of Adelaide
Title: Stability of freesurface flow over topography
Abstract: The forced KdV equation is used as a model to analyse the wave behaviour on the free surface in response to prescribed topographic forcing. The research involves computing steady solutions using numeric and asymptotic techniques and then analysing the stability of these steady solutions in timedependent calculations. Stability is analysed by computing the eigenvalue spectra of the linearised fKdV operator and by exploiting the Hamiltonian structure of the fKdV. Future work includes analysing the solution space for a corrugated topography and investigating the 3 dimensional problem using the KP equation.
+ Any items for group discussion 

Group meeting 15:10 Fri 20 Nov, 2015 :: Ingkarni Wardli B17 :: Mr Jack Keeler :: University of East Anglia / University of Adelaide
Title: Stability of freesurface flow over topography
Abstract: The forced KdV equation is used as a model to analyse the wave behaviour on the free surface in response to prescribed topographic forcing. The research involves computing steady solutions using numeric and asymptotic techniques and then analysing the stability of these steady solutions in timedependent calculations. Stability is analysed by computing the eigenvalue spectra of the linearised fKdV operator and by exploiting the Hamiltonian structure of the fKdV. Future work includes analysing the solution space for a corrugated topography and investigating the 3 dimensional problem using the KP equation.
+ Any items for group discussion 

A SemiMarkovian Modeling of Limit Order Markets 13:00 Fri 11 Dec, 2015 :: Ingkarni Wardli 5.57 :: Anatoliy Swishchuk :: University of Calgary
Media...R. Cont and A. de Larrard (SIAM J. Financial Mathematics, 2013) introduced a tractable stochastic model for the dynamics of a limit order book, computing various quantities of interest such as the probability of a price increase or the diffusion limit of the price process. As suggested by empirical observations, we extend their framework to 1) arbitrary distributions for book events interarrival times (possibly nonexponential) and 2) both the nature of a new book event and its corresponding interarrival time depend on the nature of the previous book event. We do so by resorting to Markov renewal processes to model the dynamics of the bid and ask queues. We keep analytical tractability via explicit expressions for the Laplace transforms of various quantities of interest. Our approach is justified and illustrated by calibrating the model to the five stocks Amazon, Apple, Google, Intel and Microsoft on June 21st 2012. As in Cont and Larrard, the bidask spread remains constant equal to one tick, only the bid and ask queues are modelled (they are independent from each other and get reinitialized after a price change), and all orders have the same size. (This talk is based on our joint paper with Nelson Vadori (Morgan Stanley)). 

A fixed point theorem on noncompact manifolds 12:10 Fri 12 Feb, 2016 :: Ingkarni Wardli B21 :: Peter Hochs :: University of Adelaide / Radboud University
Media...For an elliptic operator on a compact manifold acted on by a compact Lie group, the AtiyahSegalSinger fixed point formula expresses its equivariant index in terms of data on fixed point sets of group elements. This can for example be used to prove Weylâs character formula. We extend the definition of the equivariant index to noncompact manifolds, and prove a generalisation of the AtiyahSegalSinger formula, for group elements with compact fixed point sets. In one example, this leads to a relation with characters of discrete series representations of semisimple Lie groups. (This is joint work with Hang Wang.) 

Expanding maps 12:10 Fri 18 Mar, 2016 :: Eng & Maths EM205 :: Andy Hammerlindl :: Monash University
Media...Consider a function from the circle to itself such that the derivative is
greater than one at every point. Examples are maps of the form f(x) = mx for
integers m > 1. In some sense, these are the only possible examples. This
fact and the corresponding question for maps on higher dimensional manifolds
was a major motivation for Gromov to develop pioneering results in the field
of geometric group theory.
In this talk, I'll give an overview of this and other results relating
dynamical systems to the geometry of the manifolds on which they act and
(time permitting) talk about my own work in the area.


Chaos in dimensions 2 and 3 15:10 Fri 18 Mar, 2016 :: Engineering South S112 :: Dr Andy Hammerlindl :: Monash University
Media...I will talk about known models of chaotic dynamical systems in dimensions two and three, and results which classify the types of chaotic dynamics that are robust under perturbation. I will also talk about my own work towards understanding chaotic dynamics for discretetime systems in dimension three.
This is joint work with C. Bonatti, A. Gogolev, and R. Potrie. 

How predictable are you? Information and happiness in social media. 12:10 Mon 21 Mar, 2016 :: Ingkarni Wardli Conference Room 715 :: Dr Lewis Mitchell :: School of Mathematical Sciences
Media...The explosion of ``Big Data'' coming from online social networks and the like has opened up the new field of ``computational social science'', which applies a quantitative lens to problems traditionally in the domain of psychologists, anthropologists and social scientists. What does it mean to be influential? How do ideas propagate amongst populations? Is happiness contagious? For the first time, mathematicians, statisticians, and computer scientists can provide insight into these and other questions. Using data from social networks such as Facebook and Twitter, I will give an overview of recent research trends in computational social science, describe some of my own work using techniques like sentiment analysis and information theory in this realm, and explain how you can get involved with this highly rewarding research field as well.


Counting periodic points of plane Cremona maps 12:10 Fri 1 Apr, 2016 :: Eng & Maths EM205 :: Tuyen Truong :: University of Adelaide
Media...In this talk, I will present recent results, join with TienCuong Dinh and VietAnh Nguyen, on counting periodic points of plane Cremona maps (i.e. birational maps of P^2). The tools used include a Lefschetz fixed point formula of Saito, Iwasaki and Uehara for birational maps of surface whose fixed point set may contain curves; a bound on the arithmetic genus of curves of periodic points by Diller, Jackson and Sommerse; a result by Diller, Dujardin and Guedj on invariant (1,1) currents of meromorphic maps of compact Kahler surfaces; and a theory developed recently by Dinh and Sibony for non proper intersections of varieties. Among new results in the paper, we give a complete characterisation of when two positive closed (1,1) currents on a compact Kahler surface behave nicely in the view of Dinh and SibonyÃÂ¢ÃÂÃÂs theory, even if their wedge intersection may not be welldefined with respect to the classical pluripotential theory. Time allows, I will present some generalisations to meromorphic maps (including an upper bound for the number of isolated periodic points which is sometimes overlooked in the literature) and open questions. 

Geometric analysis of gaplabelling 12:10 Fri 8 Apr, 2016 :: Eng & Maths EM205 :: Mathai Varghese :: University of Adelaide
Media...Using an earlier result, joint with Quillen, I will formulate a gap labelling conjecture for magnetic Schrodinger operators with smooth aperiodic potentials on Euclidean space. Results in low dimensions will be given, and the formulation of the same problem for certain nonEuclidean spaces will be given if time permits.
This is ongoing joint work with Moulay Benameur.


Mathematical modelling of the immune response to influenza 15:00 Thu 12 May, 2016 :: Ingkarni Wardli B20 :: Ada Yan :: University of Melbourne
Media...The immune response plays an important role in the resolution of primary influenza infection and prevention of subsequent infection in an individual. However, the relative roles of each component of the immune response in clearing infection, and the effects of interaction between components, are not well quantified.
We have constructed a model of the immune response to influenza based on data from viral interference experiments, where ferrets were exposed to two influenza strains within a short time period. The changes in viral kinetics of the second virus due to the first virus depend on the strains used as well as the interval between exposures, enabling inference of the timing of innate and adaptive immune response components and the role of crossreactivity in resolving infection. Our model provides a mechanistic explanation for the observed variation in viruses' abilities to protect against subsequent infection at short interexposure intervals, either by delaying the second infection or inducing stochastic extinction of the second virus. It also explains the decrease in recovery time for the second infection when the two strains elicit crossreactive cellular adaptive immune responses. To account for intersubject as well as intervirus variation, the model is formulated using a hierarchical framework. We will fit the model to experimental data using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods; quantification of the model will enable a deeper understanding of the effects of potential new treatments.


Behavioural Microsimulation Approach to Social Policy and Behavioural Economics 15:10 Fri 20 May, 2016 :: S112 Engineering South :: Dr Drew Mellor :: Ernst & Young
SIMULAIT is a general purpose, behavioural microsimulation system designed to predict behavioural trends in human populations. This type of predictive capability grew out of original research initially conducted in conjunction with the Defence Science and Technology Group (DSTO) in South Australia, and has been fully commercialised and is in current use by a global customer base. To our customers, the principal value of the system lies in its ability to predict likely outcomes to scenarios that challenge conventional approaches based on extrapolation or generalisation. These types of scenarios include: the impact of disruptive technologies, such as the impact of widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles for transportation or batteries for household energy storage; and the impact of effecting policy elements or interventions, such as the impact of imposing water usage restrictions.
SIMULAIT employs a multidisciplinary methodology, drawing from agentbased modelling, behavioural science and psychology, microeconomics, artificial intelligence, simulation, game theory, engineering, mathematics and statistics. In this seminar, we start with a highlevel view of the system followed by a look under the hood to see how the various elements come together to answer questions about behavioural trends. The talk will conclude with a case study of a recent application of SIMULAIT to a significant policy problem  how to address the deficiency of STEM skilled teachers in the Victorian teaching workforce. 

Time series analysis of paleoclimate proxies (a mathematical perspective) 15:10 Fri 27 May, 2016 :: Engineering South S112 :: Dr Thomas Stemler :: University of Western Australia
Media...In this talk I will present the work my colleagues from the School of
Earth and Environment (UWA), the "trans disciplinary methods" group of
the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, and I did to
explain the dynamics of the AustralianSouth East Asian monsoon system
during the last couple of thousand years.
From a time series perspective paleoclimate proxy series are more or
less the monsters moving under your bed that wake you up in the middle
of the night. The data is clearly nonstationary, nonuniform sampled in
time and the influence of stochastic forcing or the level of measurement
noise are more or less unknown. Given these undesirable properties
almost all traditional time series analysis methods fail.
I will highlight two methods that allow us to draw useful conclusions
from the data sets. The first one uses Gaussian kernel methods to
reconstruct climate networks from multiple proxies. The coupling
relationships in these networks change over time and therefore can be
used to infer which areas of the monsoon system dominate the complex
dynamics of the whole system. Secondly I will introduce the
transformation cost time series method, which allows us to detect
changes in the dynamics of a nonuniform sampled time series. Unlike the
frequently used interpolation approach, our new method does not corrupt
the data and therefore avoids biases in any subsequence analysis. While
I will again focus on paleoclimate proxies, the method can be used in
other applied areas, where regular sampling is not possible.


Approaches to modelling cells and remodelling biological tissues 14:10 Wed 10 Aug, 2016 :: Ingkarni Wardli 5.57 :: Professor Helen Byrne :: University of Oxford
Biological tissues are complex structures, whose evolution is characterised by multiple biophysical processes that act across diverse space and time scales. For example, during normal wound healing, fibroblast cells located around the wound margin exert contractile forces to close the wound while those located in the surrounding tissue synthesise new tissue in response to local growth factors and mechanical stress created by wound contraction. In this talk I will illustrate how mathematical modelling can provide insight into such complex processes, taking my inspiration from recent studies of cell migration, vasculogenesis and wound healing. 

Calculus on symplectic manifolds 12:10 Fri 12 Aug, 2016 :: Ingkarni Wardli B18 :: Mike Eastwood :: University of Adelaide
Media...One can use the symplectic form to construct an elliptic complex replacing the de Rham complex. Then, under suitable curvature conditions, one can form coupled versions of this complex. Finally, on complex projective space, these constructions give rise to a series of elliptic complexes with geometric consequences for the FubiniStudy metric and its Xray transform. This talk, which will start from scratch, is based on the work of many authors but, especially, current joint work with Jan Slovak. 

Mathematical modelling of social spreading processes 15:10 Fri 19 Aug, 2016 :: Napier G03 :: Prof Hans De Sterck :: Monash University
Media...Social spreading processes are intriguing manifestations of how humans interact and shape each others' lives. There is great interest in improving our understanding of these processes, and the increasing availability of empirical information in the era of big data and online social networks, combined with mathematical and computational modelling techniques, offer compelling new ways to study these processes.
I will first discuss mathematical models for the spread of political revolutions on social networks. The influence of online social networks and social media on the dynamics of the Arab Spring revolutions of 2011 are of particular interest in our work. I will describe a hierarchy of models, starting from agentbased models realized on empirical social networks, and ending up with populationlevel models that summarize the dynamical behaviour of the spreading process. We seek to understand quantitatively how political revolutions may be facilitated by the modern online social networks of social media.
The second part of the talk will describe a populationlevel model for the social dynamics that cause cigarette smoking to spread in a population. Our model predicts that more individualistic societies will show faster adoption and cessation of smoking. Evidence from a newly composed centurylong composite data set on smoking prevalence in 25 countries supports the model, with potential implications for public health interventions around the world.
Throughout the talk, I will argue that important aspects of social spreading processes can be revealed and understood via quantitative mathematical and computational models matched to empirical data.
This talk describes joint work with John Lang and Danny Abrams. 

Modelling evolution of postmenopausal human longevity: The Grandmother Hypothesis 15:10 Fri 2 Sep, 2016 :: Napier G03 :: Dr Peter Kim :: University of Sydney
Media...Human postmenopausal longevity makes us unique among primates, but how did it evolve? One explanation, the Grandmother Hypothesis, proposes that as grasslands spread in ancient Africa displacing foods ancestral youngsters could effectively exploit, older females whose fertility was declining left more descendants by subsidizing grandchildren and allowing mothers to have new babies sooner. As more robust elders could help more descendants, selection favoured increased longevity while maintaining the ancestral end of female fertility.
We develop a probabilistic agentbased model that incorporates two sexes and mating, fertilitylongevity tradeoffs, and the possibility of grandmother help. Using this model, we show how the grandmother effect could have driven the evolution of human longevity. Simulations reveal two stable lifehistories, one humanlike and the other like our nearest cousins, the great apes. The probabilistic formulation shows how stochastic effects can slow down and prevent escape from the ancestral condition, and it allows us to investigate the effect of mutation rates on the trajectory of evolution. 

A principled experimental design approach to big data analysis 15:10 Fri 23 Sep, 2016 :: Napier G03 :: Prof Kerrie Mengersen :: Queensland University of Technology
Media...Big Datasets are endemic, but they are often notoriously difficult to analyse because of their size, complexity, history and quality. The purpose of this paper is to open a discourse on the use of modern experimental design methods to analyse Big Data in order to answer particular questions of interest. By appeal to a range of examples, it is suggested that this perspective on Big Data modelling and analysis has wide generality and advantageous inferential and computational properties. In particular, the principled experimental design approach is shown to provide a flexible framework for analysis that, for certain classes of objectives and utility functions, delivers equivalent answers compared with analyses of the full dataset. It can also provide a formalised method for iterative parameter estimation, model checking, identification of data gaps and evaluation of data quality. Finally it has the potential to add value to other Big Data sampling algorithms, in particular divideandconquer strategies, by determining efficient subsamples. 

SIR epidemics with stages of infection 12:10 Wed 28 Sep, 2016 :: EM218 :: Matthieu Simon :: Universite Libre de Bruxelles
Media...This talk is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an epidemic in a closed homogeneously mixing population. The population is subdivided into three classes of individuals: the susceptibles, the infectives and the removed cases. In short, an infective remains infectious during a random period of time. While infected, it can contact all the susceptibles present, independently of the other infectives. At the end of the infectious period, it becomes a removed case and has no further part in the infection process.
We represent an infectious period as a set of different stages that an infective can go through before being removed. The transitions between stages are ruled by either a Markov process or a semiMarkov process. In each stage, an infective makes contaminations at the epochs of a Poisson process with a specific rate.
Our purpose is to derive closed expressions for a transform of different statistics related to the end of the epidemic, such as the final number of susceptibles and the area under the trajectories of all the infectives. The analysis is performed by using simple matrix analytic methods and martingale arguments. Numerical illustrations will be provided at the end of the talk. 

Transmission Dynamics of Visceral Leishmaniasis: designing a test and treat control strategy 12:10 Thu 29 Sep, 2016 :: EM218 :: Graham Medley :: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Media...Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is targeted for elimination from the Indian SubContinent. Progress has been much better in some areas than others. Current control is based on earlier diagnosis and treatment and on insecticide spraying to reduce the density of the vector. There is a surprising dearth of specific information on the epidemiology of VL, which makes modelling more difficult. In this seminar, I describe a simple framework that gives some insight into the transmission dynamics. We conclude that the majority of infection comes from cases prior to diagnosis. If this is the case then, early diagnosis will be advantageous, but will require a test with high specificity. This is a paradox for many clinicians and public health workers, who tend to prioritise high sensitivity.
Medley, G.F., Hollingsworth, T.D., Olliaro, P.L. & Adams, E.R. (2015) Healthseeking, diagnostics and transmission in the control of visceral leishmaniasis. Nature 528, S102S108 (3 December 2015), DOI: 10.1038/nature16042 

Character Formula for Discrete Series 12:10 Fri 14 Oct, 2016 :: Ingkarni Wardli B18 :: Hang Wang :: University of Adelaide
Media...Weyl character formula describes characters of irreducible representations of compact Lie groups. This formula can be obtained using geometric method, for example, from the AtiyahBott fixed point theorem or the AtiyahSegalSinger index theorem. HarishChandra character formula, the noncompact analogue of the Weyl character formula, can also be studied from the point of view of index theory. We apply orbital integrals on Ktheory of HarishChandra Schwartz algebra of a semisimple Lie group G, and then use geometric method to deduce HarishChandra character formulas for discrete series representations of G. This is work in progress with Peter Hochs.


Some results on the stability of flat Stokes layers 15:10 Fri 14 Oct, 2016 :: Ingkarni Wardli 5.57 :: Professor Andrew Bassom :: University of Tasmania
The flat Stokes layer is one of the relatively few exact solutions of the incompressible NavierStokes equations. For that reason the temporal stability of the layer has attracted considerable interest over the years. Fortunately, not only is the issue one solely of academic curiosity, but some kind of Stokes layer is likely to be set up at the boundaries of any physical timeperiodic flow making its stability of practical interest as well. In this talk I shall review progress made in the understanding of the linear stability properties of the flow. In particular I will discuss the fact that theoretical predictions of critical conditions are wildly different from those observed in the laboratory. 

Measuring and mapping carbon dioxide from remote sensing satellite data 15:10 Fri 21 Oct, 2016 :: Napier G03 :: Prof Noel Cressie :: University of Wollongong
Media...This talk is about environmental statistics for global remote sensing of atmospheric carbon dioxide, a leading greenhouse gas. An important compartment of the carbon cycle is atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), where it (and other gases) contribute to climate change through a greenhouse effect. There are a number of CO2 observational programs where measurements are made around the globe at a small number of groundbased locations at somewhat regular time intervals. In contrast, satellitebased programs are spatially global but give up some of the temporal richness. The most recent satellite launched to measure CO2 was NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory2 (OCO2), whose principal objective is to retrieve a geographical distribution of CO2 sources and sinks. OCO2's measurement of columnaveraged mole fraction, XCO2, is designed to achieve this, through a dataassimilation procedure that is statistical at its basis. Consequently, uncertainty quantification is key, starting with the spectral radiances from an individual sounding to borrowing of strength through spatialstatistical modelling. 

Segregation of particles in incompressible flows due to streamline topology and particleboundary interaction 15:10 Fri 2 Dec, 2016 :: Ingkarni Wardli 5.57 :: Professor Hendrik C. Kuhlmann :: Institute of Fluid Mechanics and Heat Transfer, TU Wien, Vienna, Austria
Media...The incompressible flow in a number of classical benchmark problems (e.g. liddriven cavity, liquid bridge) undergoes an instability from a twodimensional steady to a periodic threedimensional flow, which is steady or in form of a traveling wave, if the Reynolds number is increased. In the supercritical regime chaotic as well as regular (quasiperiodic) streamlines can coexist for a range of Reynolds numbers. The spatial structures of the regular regions in threedimensional NavierStokes flows has received relatively little attention, partly because of the high numerical effort required for resolving these structures. Particles whose density does not differ much from that of the liquid approximately follow the chaotic or regular streamlines in the bulk. Near the boundaries, however, their trajectories strongly deviate from the streamlines, in particular if the boundary (wall or free surface) is moving tangentially. As a result of this particleboundary interaction particles can rapidly segregate and be attracted to periodic or quasiperiodic orbits, yielding particle accumulation structures (PAS). The mechanism of PAS will be explained and results from experiments and numerical modelling will be presented to demonstrate the generic character of the phenomenon. 

An equivariant parametric Oka principle for bundles of homogeneous spaces 12:10 Fri 3 Mar, 2017 :: Napier 209 :: Finnur Larusson :: University of Adelaide
I will report on new joint work with Frank Kutzschebauch and Gerald Schwarz (arXiv:1612.07372). Under certain conditions, every continuous section of a holomorphic fibre bundle can be deformed to a holomorphic section. In fact, the inclusion of the space of holomorphic sections into the space of continuous sections is a weak homotopy equivalence. What if a complex Lie group acts on the bundle and its sections? We have proved an analogous result for equivariant sections. The result has a wide scope. If time permits, I will describe some interesting special cases and mention two applications. 

Onelayer liquid films loaded with selfpropelled particles and twolayer films under vibration 15:10 Fri 31 Mar, 2017 :: Engineering South S111 :: Dr Andriy Pototskyy :: Swinburne University of Technology
In the first part, we consider a colony of selfpropelled particles (swimmers) in a thin liquid film resting on a solid plate with deformable liquidgas interface. The local surface tension of the liquidgas interface is altered by the local density of swimmers due to the solutoMarangoni effect. Linear stability of the flat film and nonlinear time evolution is analyzed in case of the swarming interaction between the swimmers.
In the second part, we study the Faraday instability and nonlinear patterns in vibrated twolayer liquid films. For gravitationally stable twolayer films with a lighter fluid on top of the heavier fluid, we find squares, hexagons, quasiperiodic patterns with eightfold symmetry as well as localized states in the form of large scale depletion regions or finite depth holes, occurring at the interface and surface. For a RayleighTaylor unstable combination (heavier fluid above the light one) we show that external vibration increases the lifetime of the film by delaying or completely suppressing the film rupture. 

Ktypes of tempered representations 12:10 Fri 7 Apr, 2017 :: Napier 209 :: Peter Hochs :: University of Adelaide
Media...Tempered representations of a reductive Lie group G are the irreducible unitary representations one needs in the Plancherel decomposition of L^2(G). They are relevant to harmonic analysis because of this, and also occur in the Langlands classification of the larger class of admissible representations. If K in G is a maximal compact subgroup, then there is a considerable amount of information in the restriction of a tempered representation to K. In joint work with Yanli Song and Shilin Yu, we give a geometric expression for the decomposition of such a restriction into irreducibles. The multiplicities of these irreducibles are expressed as indices of Dirac operators on reduced spaces of a coadjoint orbit of G corresponding to the representation. These reduced spaces are Spinc analogues of reduced spaces in symplectic geometry, defined in terms of moment maps that represent conserved quantities. This result involves a Spinc version of the quantisation commutes with reduction principle for noncompact manifolds. For discrete series representations, this was done by Paradan in 2003. 

Lagrangian transport in deterministic flows: from theory to experiment 16:10 Tue 16 May, 2017 :: Engineering North N132 :: Dr Michel Speetjens :: Eindhoven University of Technology
Transport of scalar quantities (e.g. chemical species, nutrients, heat) in deterministic flows is key to a wide range of phenomena and processes in industry and Nature. This encompasses length scales ranging from microns to hundreds of kilometres, and includes systems as diverse as viscous flows in the processing industry, microfluidic flows in labsonachip and porous media, largescale geophysical and environmental flows, physiological and biological flows and even continuum descriptions of granular flows.
Essential to the net transport of a scalar quantity is its advection by the fluid motion. The Lagrangian perspective (arguably) is the most natural way to investigate advection and leans on the fact that fluid trajectories are organized into coherent structures that geometrically determine the advective transport properties. Lagrangian transport is typically investigated via theoretical and computational studies and often concerns idealized flow situations that are difficult (or even impossible) to create in laboratory experiments. However, bridging the gap from theoretical and computational results to realistic flows is essential for their physical meaningfulness and practical relevance. This presentation highlights a number of fundamental Lagrangian transport phenomena and properties in both twodimensional and threedimensional flows and demonstrates their physical validity by way of representative and experimentally realizable flows. 

Stokes' Phenomenon in Translating Bubbles 15:10 Fri 2 Jun, 2017 :: Ingkarni Wardli 5.57 :: Dr Chris Lustri :: Macquarie University
This study of translating air bubbles in a HeleShaw cell containing viscous fluid reveals the critical role played by surface tension in these systems. The standard zerosurfacetension model of HeleShaw flow predicts that a continuum of bubble solutions exists for arbitrary flow translation velocity. The inclusion of small surface tension, however, eliminates this continuum of solutions, instead producing a discrete, countably infinite family of solutions, each with distinct translation speeds. We are interested in determining this discrete family of solutions, and understanding why only these solutions are permitted.
Studying this problem in the asymptotic limit of small surface tension does not seem to give any particular reason why only these solutions should be selected. It is only by using exponential asymptotic methods to study the Stokesâ structure hidden in the problem that we are able to obtain a complete picture of the bubble behaviour, and hence understand the selection mechanism that only permits certain solutions to exist.
In the first half of my talk, I will explain the powerful ideas that underpin exponential asymptotic techniques, such as analytic continuation and optimal truncation. I will show how they are able to capture behaviour known as Stokes' Phenomenon, which is typically invisible to classical asymptotic series methods. In the second half of the talk, I will introduce the problem of a translating air bubble in a HeleShaw cell, and show that the behaviour can be fully understood by examining the Stokes' structure concealed within the problem. Finally, I will briefly showcase other important physical applications of exponential asymptotic methods, including submarine waves and particle chains. 

Quaternionic Kaehler manifolds of cohomogeneity one 12:10 Fri 16 Jun, 2017 :: Ligertwood 231 :: Vicente Cortes :: Universitat Hamburg
Media...Quaternionic Kaehler manifolds form an important class of Riemannian manifolds of special holonomy. They provide examples of Einstein manifolds of nonzero scalar curvature. I will show how to construct explicit examples of complete quaternionic Kaehler manifolds of negative scalar curvature beyond homogeneous spaces. In particular, I will present a series of examples of cohomogeneity one, based on arXiv:1701.07882. 

Curvature contraction of axially symmetric hypersurfaces in the sphere 12:10 Fri 4 Aug, 2017 :: Engineering Sth S111 :: James McCoy :: University of Wollongong
Media...We show that convex surfaces in an ambient threesphere contract to round points in finite time under fully nonlinear, degree one homogeneous curvature flows, with no concavity condition on the speed. The result extends to convex axially symmetric hypersurfaces of S^{n+1}. Using a different pinching function we also obtain the analogous results for contraction by Gauss curvature. 

Timereversal symmetric topology from physics 12:10 Fri 25 Aug, 2017 :: Engineering Sth S111 :: Guo Chuan Thiang :: University of Adelaide
Media...Timereversal plays a crucial role in experimentally discovered topological insulators (2008) and semimetals (2015). This is mathematically interesting because one is forced to use "Quaternionic" characteristic classes and differential topology  a previously illmotivated generalisation. Guided by physical intuition, an equivariant PoincareLefschetz duality, Euler structures, and a new type of monopole with torsion charge, will be introduced. 

On the fundamental of RayleighTaylor instability and interfacial mixing 15:10 Fri 15 Sep, 2017 :: Ingkarni Wardli B17 :: Prof Snezhana Abarzhi :: University of Western Australia
RayleighTaylor instability (RTI) develops when fluids of different densities are accelerated against their density gradient. Extensive interfacial mixing of the fluids ensues with time. RayleighTaylor (RT) mixing controls a broad variety of processes in fluids, plasmas and materials, in high and low energy density regimes, at astrophysical and atomistic scales. Examples include formation of hot spot in inertial confinement, supernova explosion, stellar and planetary convection, flows in atmosphere and ocean, reactive and supercritical fluids, material transformation under impact and lightmaterial interaction. In some of these cases (e.g. inertial confinement fusion) RT mixing should be tightly mitigated; in some others (e.g. turbulent combustion) it should be strongly enhanced. Understanding the fundamentals of RTI is crucial for achieving a better control of nonequilibrium processes in nature and technology.
Traditionally, it was presumed that RTI leads to uncontrolled growth of smallscale imperfections, singlescale nonlinear dynamics, and extensive mixing that is similar to canonical turbulence. The recent success of the theory and experiments in fluids and plasmas suggests an alternative scenario of RTI evolution. It finds that the interface is necessary for RT mixing to accelerate, the acceleration effects are strong enough to suppress the development of turbulence, and the RT dynamics is multiscale and has significant degree of order.
This talk presents a physicsbased consideration of fundamentals of RTI and RT mixing, and summarizes what is certain and what is not so certain in our knowledge of RTI. The focus question  How to influence the regularization process in RT mixing? We also discuss new opportunities for improvements of predictive modeling capabilities, physical description, and control of RT mixing in fluids, plasmas and materials. 

Understanding burn injuries and first aid treatment using simple mathematical models 15:10 Fri 13 Oct, 2017 :: Ingkarni Wardli B17 :: Prof Mat Simpson :: Queensland University of Technology
Scald burns from accidental exposure to hot liquids are the most common cause of burn injury in children. Over 2000 children are treated for accidental burn injuries in Australia each year. Despite the frequency of these injuries, basic questions about the physics of heat transfer in living tissues remain unanswered. For example, skin thickness varies with age and anatomical location, yet our understanding of how tissue damage from thermal injury is influenced by skin thickness is surprisingly limited. In this presentation we will consider a series of porcine experiments to study heat transfer in living tissues. We consider burning the living tissue, as well as applying various first aid treatment strategies to cool the living tissue after injury. By calibrating solutions of simple mathematical models to match the experimental data we provide insight into how thermal energy propagates through living tissues, as well as exploring different first aid strategies. We conclude by outlining some of our current work that aims to produce more realistic mathematical models. 

How oligomerisation impacts steady state gradient in a morphogenreceptor system 15:10 Fri 20 Oct, 2017 :: Ingkarni Wardli 5.57 :: Mr Phillip Brown :: University of Adelaide
In developmental biology an important process is cell fate determination, where cells start to differentiate their form and function. This is an element of the broader concept of morphogenesis. It has long been held that cell differentiation can occur by a chemical signal providing positional information to 'undecided' cells. This chemical produces a gradient of concentration that indicates to a cell what path it should develop along. More recently it has been shown that in a particular system of this type, the chemical (protein) does not exist purely as individual molecules, but can exist in multiprotein complexes known as oligomers.
Mathematical modelling has been performed on systems of oligomers to determine if this concept can produce useful gradients of concentration. However, there are wide range of possibilities when it comes to how oligomer systems can be modelled and most of them have not been explored.
In this talk I will introduce a new monomer system and analyse it, before extending this model to include oligomers. A number of oligomer models are proposed based on the assumption that proteins are only produced in their oligomer form and can only break apart once they have left the producing cell. It will be shown that when oligomers are present under these conditions, but only monomers are permitted to bind with receptors, then the system can produce robust, biologically useful gradients for a significantly larger range of model parameters (for instance, degradation, production and binding rates) compared to the monomer system. We will also show that when oligomers are permitted to bind with receptors there is negligible difference compared to the monomer system. 

The Markovian binary tree applied to demography and conservation biology 15:10 Fri 27 Oct, 2017 :: Ingkarni Wardli B17 :: Dr Sophie Hautphenne :: University of Melbourne
Markovian binary trees form a general and tractable class of continuoustime branching processes, which makes them wellsuited for realworld applications. Thanks to their appealing probabilistic and computational features, these processes have proven to be an excellent modelling tool for applications in population biology. Typical performance measures of these models include the extinction probability of a population, the distribution of the population size at a given time, the total progeny size until extinction, and the asymptotic population composition. Besides giving an overview of the main performance measures and the techniques involved to compute them, we discuss recently developed statistical methods to estimate the model parameters, depending on the accuracy of the available data. We illustrate our results in human demography and in conservation biology. 

Stochastic Modelling of Urban Structure 11:10 Mon 20 Nov, 2017 :: Engineering Nth N132 :: Mark Girolami :: Imperial College London, and The Alan Turing Institute
Media...Urban systems are complex in nature and comprise of a large number of individuals that act according to utility, a measure of net benefit pertaining to preferences. The actions of individuals give rise to an emergent behaviour, creating the socalled urban structure that we observe. In this talk, I develop a stochastic model of urban structure to formally account for uncertainty arising from the complex behaviour. We further use this stochastic model to infer the components of a utility function from observed urban structure. This is a more powerful modelling framework in comparison to the ubiquitous discrete choice models that are of limited use for complex systems, in which the overall preferences of individuals are difficult to ascertain. We model urban structure as a realization of a Boltzmann distribution that is the invariant distribution of a related stochastic differential equation (SDE) that describes the dynamics of the urban system. Our specification of Boltzmann distribution assigns higher probability to stable configurations, in the sense that consumer surplus (demand) is balanced with running costs (supply), as characterized by a potential function. We specify a Bayesian hierarchical model to infer the components of a utility function from observed structure. Our model is doublyintractable and poses significant computational challenges that we overcome using recent advances in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We demonstrate our methodology with case studies on the London retail system and airports in England. 

Calculating optimal limits for transacting credit card customers 15:10 Fri 2 Mar, 2018 :: Horace Lamb 1022 :: Prof Peter Taylor :: University of Melbourne
Credit card users can roughly be divided into `transactors', who pay off their balance each month, and `revolvers', who maintain an outstanding balance, on which they pay substantial interest.
In this talk, we focus on modelling the behaviour of an individual transactor customer. Our motivation is to calculate an optimal credit limit from the bank's point of view. This requires an expression for the expected outstanding balance at the end of a payment period.
We establish a connection with the classical newsvendor model. Furthermore, we derive the Laplace transform of the outstanding balance, assuming that purchases are made according to a marked point process and that there is a simplified balance control policy which prevents all purchases in the rest of the payment period when the credit limit is exceeded. We then use the newsvendor model and our modified model to calculate bounds on the optimal credit limit for the more realistic balance control policy that accepts all purchases that do not exceed the limit.
We illustrate our analysis using a compound Poisson process example and show that the optimal limit scales with the distribution of the purchasing process, while the probability of exceeding the optimal limit remains constant.
Finally, we apply our model to some real credit card purchase data. 

Family gauge theory and characteristic classes of bundles of 4manifolds 13:10 Fri 16 Mar, 2018 :: Barr Smith South Polygon Lecture theatre :: Hokuto Konno :: University of Tokyo
Media...I will define a nontrivial characteristic class of bundles of
4manifolds using families of SeibergWitten equations. The basic idea
of the construction is to consider an infinite dimensional
analogue of the Euler class used in the usual theory of characteristic
classes. I will also explain how to prove the nontriviality of this
characteristic class. If time permits, I will mention a relation between
our characteristic class and positive scalar curvature metrics. 

Models, machine learning, and robotics: understanding biological networks 15:10 Fri 16 Mar, 2018 :: Horace Lamb 1022 :: Prof Steve Oliver :: University of Cambridge
The availability of complete genome sequences has enabled the construction of computer models of metabolic networks that may be used to predict the impact of genetic mutations on growth and survival. Both logical and constraintbased models of the metabolic network of the model eukaryote, the ale yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, have been available for some time and are continually being improved by the research community. While such models are very successful at predicting the impact of deleting single genes, the prediction of the impact of higher order genetic interactions is a greater challenge. Initial studies of limited gene sets provided encouraging results. However, the availability of comprehensive experimental data for the interactions between genes involved in metabolism demonstrated that, while the models were able to predict the general properties of the genetic interaction network, their ability to predict interactions between specific pairs of metabolic genes was poor. I will examine the reasons for this poor performance and demonstrate ways of improving the accuracy of the models by exploiting the techniques of machine learning and robotics.
The utility of these metabolic models rests on the firm foundations of genome sequencing data. However, there are two major problems with these kinds of network models  there is no dynamics, and they do not deal with the uncertain and incomplete nature of much biological data. To deal with these problems, we have developed the Flexible Nets (FNs) modelling formalism. FNs were inspired by Petri Nets and can deal with missing or uncertain data, incorporate both dynamics and regulation, and also have the potential for model predictive control of biotechnological processes.


Stability Through a Geometric Lens 15:10 Fri 18 May, 2018 :: Horace Lamb 1022 :: Dr Robby Marangell :: University of Sydney
Focussing on the example of the Fisher/KPP equation, I will show how geometric information can be used to establish (in)stability results in some partial differential equations (PDEs). Viewing standing and travelling waves as fixed points of a flow in an infinite dimensional system, leads to a reduction of the linearised stability problem to a boundary value problem in a linear nonautonomous ordinary differential equation (ODE). Next, by exploiting the linearity of the system, one can use geometric ideas to reveal additional structure underlying the determination of stability. I will show how the Riccati equation can be used to produce a reasonably computable detector of eigenvalues and how such a detector is related to another, wellknown eigenvalue detector, the Evans function. If there is time, I will try to expand on how to generalise these ideas to systems of PDEs. 

Modelling phagocytosis 15:10 Fri 25 May, 2018 :: Horace Lamb 1022 :: Prof Ngamta (Natalie) Thamwattana :: University of Wollongong
Phagocytosis refers to a process in which one cell type fully encloses and consumes unwanted cells,
debris or particulate matter. It plays an important role in immune systems through the destruction of
pathogens and the inhibiting of cancerous cells. In this study, we combine models on cellcell adhesion
and on predatorprey modelling to generate a new model for phagocytosis that is capable of relating
the interaction between cells in both space and time. Numerical results are presented, demonstrating
the behaviours of cells during the process of phagocytosis. 

The topology and geometry of spaces of YangMillsHiggs flow lines 11:10 Fri 27 Jul, 2018 :: Barr Smith South Polygon Lecture theatre :: Graeme Wilkin :: National University of Singapore
Given a smooth complex vector bundle over a compact Riemann surface, one can define the space of Higgs bundles and an energy functional on this space: the YangMillsHiggs functional. The gradient flow of this functional resembles a nonlinear heat equation, and the limit of the flow detects information about the algebraic structure of the initial Higgs bundle (e.g. whether or not it is semistable). In this talk I will explain my work to classify ancient solutions of the YangMillsHiggs flow in terms of their algebraic structure, which leads to an algebrogeometric classification of YangMillsHiggs flow lines. Critical points connected by flow lines can then be interpreted in terms of the Hecke correspondence, which appears in Wittenâs recent work on Geometric Langlands. This classification also gives a geometric description of spaces of unbroken flow lines in terms of secant varieties of the underlying Riemann surface, and in the remaining time I will describe work in progress to relate the (analytic) Morse compactification of these spaces by broken flow lines to an algebrogeometric compactification by iterated blowups of secant varieties. 

Equivariant Index, Traces and Representation Theory 11:10 Fri 10 Aug, 2018 :: Barr Smith South Polygon Lecture theatre :: Hang Wang :: University of Adelaide
Ktheory of C*algebras associated to a semisimple Lie group can be understood both from the geometric point of view via BaumConnes assembly map and from the representation theoretic point of view via harmonic analysis of Lie groups. A Ktheory generator can be viewed as the equivariant index of some Dirac operator, but also interpreted as a (family of) representation(s) parametrised by the noncompact abelian part in the Levi component of a cuspidal parabolic subgroup. Applying orbital traces to the Ktheory group, we obtain the equivariant index as a fixed point formula which, for each Ktheory generators for (limit of) discrete series, recovers HarishChandraâs character formula on the representation theory side. This is a noncompact analogue of AtiyahSegalSinger fixed point theorem in relation to the Weyl character formula. This is joint work with Peter Hochs. 

Projected Particle Filters 15:10 Fri 24 Aug, 2018 :: Lower Napier LG15 :: Dr John Maclean :: University of Adelaide
cientific advances owe equally to models and data, and both will remain relevant and key to further understanding. Observations drive model development, and model development often drives data acquisition. It therefore is particularly prudent to have these two sides of the scientific coin work in concert. This is a mathematical and statistical question: how to combine the output of model investigations and observational data. The area that is dedicated to studying and developing the best approaches to this issue is called Data Assimilation (DA). Perhaps the most crucial modernday application of DA is numerical weather prediction, but it is also used in GPS systems and studies of atmospheric conditions on other planets.
I will take the probabilistic or Bayesian approach to DA. At a particular time at which data are available, the question of data assimilation is how to approximate the posterior or analysis distribution, that is found by conditioning the "forecast distribution" on the data. A key method under this umbrella is the particle filter, that approximates the forecast and posterior distributions with an ensemble of weighted particles.
The talk will focus on a contribution to particle filtering made from a dynamical systems point of view. I will introduce a framework for Particle Filtering, PFAUS, in which only the components of data corresponding to the unstable and neutral modes of the forecast model are assimilated.
The particle filter is well suited to nonlinear forecast models, and nonGaussian forecast distributions, but would normally require exponentially more computational effort as the dimension of the DA problem increases. The PFAUS implementation is shown to correspond to assimilating observations of a lower dimension, equal to the number of Lyapunov exponents. The dimension of the observations is crucial in the computational cost of the particle filter and this approach is a framework to drastically lower that cost while preserving as much relevant information as possible, in that the unstable and neutral modes correspond to the most uncertain model predictions.
Particle filters are an active area of research in both the DA and the statistical communities, and there are many competing algorithms. One nice feature of PFAUS is that it is not exactly an algorithm but rather a framework for filtering: any particle filter can be applied in the PFAUS framework. 

Topological Data Analysis 15:10 Fri 31 Aug, 2018 :: Napier 208 :: Dr Vanessa Robins :: Australian National University
Topological Data Analysis has grown out of work focussed on deriving qualitative and yet quantifiable information about the shape of data. The underlying assumption is that knowledge of shape  the way the data are distributed  permits highlevel reasoning and modelling of the processes that created this data. The 0th order aspect of shape is the number pieces: "connected components" to a topologist; "clustering" to a statistician. Higherorder topological aspects of shape are holes, quantified as "nonbounding cycles" in homology theory. These signal the existence of some type of constraint on the datagenerating process.
Homology lends itself naturally to computer implementation, but its naive application is not robust to noise. This inspired the development of persistent homology: an algebraic topological tool that measures changes in the topology of a growing sequence of spaces (a filtration). Persistent homology provides invariants called the barcodes or persistence diagrams that are sets of intervals recording the birth and death parameter values of each homology class in the filtration. It captures information about the shape of data over a range of length scales, and enables the identification of "noisy" topological structure.
Statistical analysis of persistent homology has been challenging because the raw information (the persistence diagrams) are provided as sets of intervals rather than functions. Various approaches to converting persistence diagrams to functional forms have been developed recently, and have found application to data ranging from the distribution of galaxies, to porous materials, and cancer detection. 

Mathematical modelling of the emergence and spread of antimalarial drug resistance 15:10 Fri 14 Sep, 2018 :: Napier 208 :: Dr Jennifer Flegg :: University of Melbourne
Malaria parasites have repeatedly evolved resistance to antimalarial drugs, thwarting efforts to eliminate the disease and contributing to an increase in mortality. In this talk, I will introduce several statistical and mathematical models for monitoring the emergence and spread of antimalarial drug resistance. For example, results will be presented from Bayesian geostatistical models that have quantified the spacetime trends in drug resistance in Africa and Southeast Asia. I will discuss how the results of these models have been used to update public health policy. 
News matching "Modelling Directionality in Stationary Geophysical" 
Success in Learning and Teaching Grants The School of Mathematical Sciences has been awarded two Faculty L&T awards. Congratulations to Dr David Green for his successful grant "One Simulation Modelling Instruction Module" and to Drs Adrian Koerber, Paul McCann and Jim Denier for their successful grant "Graphics Calculators and beyond". Posted Tue 11 Mar 08. 

Australian Research Council Discovery Project Successes Congratulations to the following members of the School for their
success in the ARC Discovery Grants which were announced recently.
 A/Prof M Roughan; Prof H Shen $315K Network Management in a World of Secrets
 Prof AJ Roberts; Dr D Strunin $315K
Effective and accurate model dynamics, deterministic and stochastic,
across multiple space and time scales
 A/Prof J Denier; Prof AP Bassom $180K A novel approach to controlling boundarylayer separation
Posted Wed 17 Sep 08. 

Welcome to Dr Joshua Ross We welcome Dr Joshua Ross as a new lecturer in the School of Mathematical Sciences. Joshua has moved over to Adelaide from the University of Cambridge. His research interests are mathematical modelling (especially mathematical biology) and operations research. Posted Mon 15 Mar 10.More information... 

IGA Lecture Series by Professor Dan Freed The School of Mathematical Sciences will host a series of lectures by Professor Dan Freed (University of Texas, Austin) as part of an upcoming IGA/AMSI workshop, October 1822, 2010. Details of the workshop can be found here. Posted Tue 5 Oct 10. 

ARC Grant successes The School of Mathematical Sciences has again had outstanding success in the ARC Discovery and Linkage Projects schemes.
Congratulations to the following staff for their success in the Discovery Project scheme:
Prof Nigel Bean, Dr Josh Ross, Prof Phil Pollett, Prof Peter Taylor, New methods for improving active adaptive management in biological systems, $255,000 over 3 years;
Dr Josh Ross, New methods for integrating population structure and stochasticity into models of disease dynamics, $248,000 over three years;
A/Prof Matt Roughan, Dr Walter Willinger, Internet trafficmatrix synthesis, $290,000 over three years;
Prof Patricia Solomon, A/Prof John Moran, Statistical methods for the analysis of critical care data, with application to the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Database, $310,000 over 3 years;
Prof Mathai Varghese, Prof Peter Bouwknegt, Supersymmetric quantum field theory, topology and duality, $375,000 over 3 years;
Prof Peter Taylor, Prof Nigel Bean, Dr Sophie Hautphenne, Dr Mark Fackrell, Dr Malgorzata O'Reilly, Prof Guy Latouche, Advanced matrixanalytic methods with applications, $600,000 over 3 years.
Congratulations to the following staff for their success in the Linkage Project scheme:
Prof Simon Beecham, Prof Lee White, A/Prof John Boland, Prof Phil Howlett, Dr Yvonne Stokes, Mr John Wells, Paving the way: an experimental approach to the mathematical modelling and design of permeable pavements, $370,000 over 3 years;
Dr Amie Albrecht, Prof Phil Howlett, Dr Andrew Metcalfe, Dr Peter Pudney, Prof Roderick Smith, Saving energy on trains  demonstration, evaluation, integration, $540,000 over 3 years
Posted Fri 29 Oct 10. 

Bushfire CRC postgraduate scholarship success Congratulations to Mika Peace who has been awarded a PhD scholarship from the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre. Mika is working with Trent Mattner and Graham Mills (from the Bureau of Meteorology) on coupled fireweather modelling Posted Wed 6 Apr 11. 

ARC Future Fellowship success Associate Professor Zudi Lu has been awarded an ARC Future Fellowship. Associate Professor Lu, and Associate Professor in Statistics, will use the support provided by his Future Fellowship to further improve the theory and practice of econometric modelling of nonlinear spatial time series. Congratulations Zudi. Posted Thu 12 May 11. 

IGAAMSI Workshop: Groupvalued moment maps with applications to mathematics and physics (5–9 September 2011) Lecture series by Eckhard Meinrenken, University of Toronto. Titles of
individual lectures: 1) Introduction to Gvalued moment maps. 2) Dirac
geometry and Witten's volume formulas. 3) DixmierDouady theory and
prequantization. 4) Quantization of groupvalued moment maps. 5)
Application to Verlinde formulas. These lectures will be supplemented by
additional talks by invited speakers. For more details, please see the
conference webpage
Posted Wed 27 Jul 11.More information... 

ARC Grant Success Congratulations to the following staff who were successful in securing funding from the Australian Research Council Discovery Projects Scheme. Associate Professor Finnur Larusson awarded $270,000 for his project Flexibility and symmetry in complex geometry; Dr Thomas Leistner, awarded $303,464 for his project Holonomy groups in Lorentzian geometry, Professor Michael Murray Murray and Dr Daniel Stevenson (Glasgow), awarded $270,000 for their project Bundle gerbes: generalisations and applications; Professor Mathai Varghese, awarded $105,000 for his project Advances in index theory and Prof Anthony Roberts and Professor Ioannis Kevrekidis (Princeton) awarded $330,000 for their project Accurate modelling of large multiscale dynamical systems for engineering and scientific
simulation and analysis Posted Tue 8 Nov 11. 

Best paper prize at Membrane Symposium Congratulations to Wei Xian Lim who was awarded the prize for the best student presentation at the Membrane Society of Australasia 2011 ECR Membrane Symposium for her talk on "Mathematical modelling of gas capture in porous materials". Xian is working on her PhD with Jim Hill and Barry Cox. Posted Mon 28 Nov 11. 

Dualities in field theories and the role of Ktheory Between Monday 19 and Friday 23 March 2012, the Institute for Geometry and its Applications will host a lecture series by Professor Jonathan Rosenberg from the University of Maryland. There
will be additional talks by other invited speakers. Posted Tue 6 Dec 11.More information... 

The mathematical implications of gaugestring dualities Between Monday 5 and Friday 9 March 2012, the Institute for Geometry and its Applications will host a lecture series by Rajesh Gopakumar from the HarishChandra Research Institute. These lectures will be supplemented by talks by other invited speakers. Posted Tue 6 Dec 11.More information... 

Topup scholarship available A PhD opportunity is available to help in mathematical modelling of the interaction of ocean waves and sea ice. For information, see this advertisement. Posted Thu 1 Nov 12. 

A/Prof Joshua Ross, 2017 Moran Medal recipient Congratulations to Associate Professor Joshua Ross who has won the 2017 Moran Medal, awarded by the Australian Academy of Science.
The Moran Medal recognises outstanding research by scientists up to 10 years postPhD in applied probability, biometrics, mathematical genetics, psychometrics and statistics.
Associate Professor Ross has made influential contributions to public health and conservation biology using mathematical modelling and statistics to help in decision making.
Posted Fri 23 Dec 16.More information... 
Publications matching "Modelling Directionality in Stationary Geophysical"Publications 

Adaptively varyingcoefficient spatiotemporal models Lu, Zudi; Steinskog, D; Tjostheim, D; Yao, Q, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series BStatistical Methodology 71 (859–880) 2009  The maximum size of the intersection of two ovoids Butler, David, Journal of Combinatorial Theory Series A 116 (242–245) 2009  Model dynamics across multiple length and time scales on a spatial multigrid Roberts, Anthony John, Multiscale Modeling & Simulation: a SIAM Interdisciplinary Journal 7 (1525–1548) 2009  Modelling Water BlendingSensitivity of Optimal Policies Webby, Roger; Green, David; Metcalfe, Andrew, 17th Biennial Congress on Modeling and Simulation, New Zealand 01/12/08  Node localisation in wireless ad hoc networks using time difference of arrival Arnold, Jonathan; Bean, Nigel, 2nd International Conference on Signal Processing and Communication Systems, Gold Coast 15/12/08  Stochastic cyclone modelling in the Bay of Bengal Need, Steven; Lambert, Martin; Metcalfe, Andrew; Sen, D, Water Down Under 2008, Adelaide 14/04/08  A spacetime NeymanScott rainfall model with defined storm extent Leonard, Michael; Lambert, Martin; Metcalfe, Andrew; Cowpertwait, P, Water Resources Research 44 (9402–9402) 2008  Dbranes, KKtheory and duality on noncommutative spaces Brodzki, J; Varghese, Mathai; Rosenberg, J; Szabo, R, Journal of Physics: Conference Series (Print Edition) 103 (1–13) 2008  Discretetime expectation maximization algorithms for Markovmodulated poisson processes Elliott, Robert; Malcolm, William, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 53 (247–256) 2008  Evolving gene frequencies in a population with three possible alleles at a locus Hajek, Bronwyn; Broadbridge, P; Williams, G, Mathematical and Computer Modelling 47 (210–217) 2008  Gene profiling for determining pluripotent genes in a time course microarray experiment Tuke, Simon; Glonek, Garique; Solomon, Patricia, Biostatistics 10 (80–93) 2008  Modelling survival in acute severe illness: Cox versus accelerated failure time models Moran, John; Bersten, A; Solomon, Patricia; Edibam, C; Hunt, T, Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice 14 (83–93) 2008  The mathematical modelling of rotating capillary tubes for holeyfibre manufacture Voyce, Christopher; Fitt, A; Monro, Tanya, Journal of Engineering Mathematics 60 (69–87) 2008  Computer algebra derives discretisations via selfadjoint multiscale modelling (Unpublished) Roberts, Anthony John,  Model dynamics on a multigrid across multiple length and time scales Roberts, Anthony John,  Implementing a spacetime rainfall model for the Sydney region Leonard, Michael; Metcalfe, Andrew; Lambert, Martin; Kuczera, George, Water Science and Technology 55 (39–47) 2007  Inverse groundwater modelling in the Willunga Basin, South Australia Knowles, I; Teubner, Michael; Yan, A; Rasser, Paul; Lee, Jong, Hydrogeology Journal 15 (1107–1118) 2007  Statistics in review; Part 2: Generalised linear models, timetoevent and timeseries analysis, evidence synthesis and clinical trials Moran, John; Solomon, Patricia, Critical care and Resuscitation 9 (187–197) 2007  The Mekongapplications of value at risk (VAR) and conditional value at risk (CVAR) simulation to the benefits, costs and consequences of water resources development in a large river basin Webby, Roger; Adamson, Peter; Boland, J; Howlett, P; Metcalfe, Andrew; Piantadosi, J, Ecological Modelling 201 (89–96) 2007  Computer algebra models dynamics on a multigrid across multiple length and time scales Roberts, Anthony John,  Modelling extreme rainfall and tidal anomaly Need, Steven; Lambert, Martin; Metcalfe, Andrew, 30th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Launceston, Tasmania 04/12/06  Modelling multivariate extreme flood events Wong, Hui; Need, Steven; Adamson, Peter; Lambert, Martin; Metcalfe, Andrew, 30th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Launceston, Tasmania 04/12/06  Datarecursive smoother formulae for partially observed discretetime Markov chains Elliott, Robert; Malcolm, William, Stochastic Analysis and Applications 24 (579–597) 2006  Efficient simulation of a spacetime NeymanScott rainfall model Leonard, Michael; Metcalfe, Andrew; Lambert, Martin, Water Resources Research 42 (11503–11503) 2006  Flock generalized quadrangles and tetradic sets of elliptic quadrics of PG(3, q) Barwick, Susan; Brown, Matthew; Penttila, T, Journal of Combinatorial Theory Series A 113 (273–290) 2006  Mathematical modelling of oxygen concentration in bovine and murine cumulusoocyte complexes Clark, Alys; Stokes, Yvonne; Lane, Michelle; Thompson, Jeremy, Reproduction 131 (999–1006) 2006  Some Penrose transforms in complex differential geometry Anco, S; Bland, J; Eastwood, Michael, Science in China Series AMathematics Physics Astronomy 49 (1599–1610) 2006  Threedimensional flow due to a microcantilever oscillating near a wall: an unsteady slenderbody analysis Clarke, Richard; Jensen, O; Billingham, J; Williams, P, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series AMathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences 462 (913–933) 2006  Exact smoothers for discretetime hybrid stochastic systems Elliott, Robert; Malcolm, William; Dufour, F, The 44th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control and the European Control Conference, Seville, Spain 12/12/05  New Gaussian mixture state estimation schemes for discrete time hybrid GaussMarkov systems Elliott, Robert; Dufour, F; Malcolm, William, The 2005 American Control Conference, Portland, OR, USA 08/06/05  An analytic modelling approach for network routing algorithms that use "antlike" mobile agents Bean, Nigel; Costa, Andre, Computer NetworksThe International Journal of Computer and Telecommunications Networking 49 (243–268) 2005  An inverse modelling technique for glass forming by gravity sagging Agnon, Y; Stokes, Yvonne, European Journal of Mechanics BFluids 24 (275–287) 2005  Examples of unbounded homogeneous domains in complex space Eastwood, Michael; Isaev, A, Science in China Series AMathematics Physics Astronomy 48 (248–261) 2005  Hidden Markov filter estimation of the occurrence time of an event in a financial market Elliott, Robert; Tsoi, A, Stochastic Analysis and Applications 23 (1165–1177) 2005  RiemannSiegel sums via stationary phase Tuck, Ernest, Bulletin of the Australian Mathematical Society 72 (325–328) 2005  Risksensitive filtering and smoothing for continuoustime Markov processes Malcolm, William; Elliott, Robert; James, M, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 51 (1731–1738) 2005  State and mode estimation for discretetime jump Markov systems Elliott, Robert; Dufour, F; Malcolm, William, Siam Journal on Control and Optimization 44 (1081–1104) 2005  Deterministic and stochastic modelling of endosome escape by Staphylococcus aureus: "quorum" sensing by a single bacterium Koerber, Adrian; King, J; Williams, P, Journal of Mathematical Biology 50 (440–488) 2005  Filtering, smoothing and Mary detection with discrete time poisson observations Elliott, Robert; Malcolm, William; Aggoun, L, Stochastic Analysis and Applications 23 (939–952) 2005  Finitedimensional filtering and control for continuoustime nonlinear systems Elliott, Robert; Aggoun, L; Benmerzouga, A, Stochastic Analysis and Applications 22 (499–505) 2005  Investigation and modelling of traffic issues in immersive audio environments McMahon, Jeremy; Rumsewicz, Michael; Boustead, P; Safaei, F, 2004 IEEE International Conference on Communications, Paris, France 20/06/04  A sufficient condition for the uniform exponential stability of timevarying systems with noise Grammel, G; Maizurna, Isna, Nonlinear AnalysisTheory Methods & Applications 56 (951–960) 2004  Factorial and time course designs for cDNA microarray experiments Glonek, Garique; Solomon, Patricia, Biostatistics 5 (89–111) 2004  Macrophagetumour interactions: In vivo dynamics Byrne, H; Cox, Stephen; Kelly, C, Discrete and Continuous Dynamical SystemsSeries B 4 (81–98) 2004  Modelling thirtyday mortality in the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in an adult ICU Moran, John; Solomon, Patricia; Fox, V; Salagaras, M; Williams, P; Quinlan, K; Bersten, A, Anaesthesia and Intensive Care 32 (317–329) 2004  On the boundarylayer equations for powerlaw fluids Denier, James; Dabrowski, Paul, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series AMathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences 460 (3143–3158) 2004  Subquadrangles of order s of generalized quadrangles of order (s, s2), Part I Brown, Matthew; Thas, J, Journal of Combinatorial Theory Series A 106 (15–32) 2004  Subquadrangles of order s of generalized quadrangles of order (s, s2), Part II Brown, Matthew; Thas, J, Journal of Combinatorial Theory Series A 106 (33–48) 2004  Development of NonHomogeneous and Hierarchical Hidden Markov Models for Modelling Monthly Rainfall and Streamflow Time Series Whiting, Julian; Lambert, Martin; Metcalfe, Andrew; Kuczera, George, World Water and Environmental Resources Congress (2004), Salt Lake City, Utah, USA 27/06/04  Robust Mary detection filters and smoothers for continuoustime jump Markov systems Elliott, Robert; Malcolm, William, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 49 (1046–1055) 2004  Arborescences, matrixtrees and the accumulated sojourn time in a Markov process Pearce, Charles; Falzon, L, chapter in Stochastic analysis and applications Volume 3 (Nova Science Publishers) 147–168, 2003  Stochastic modelling of tidal anomaly for estimation of flood risk in coastal areas Ahmer, Ingrid; Lambert, Martin; Leonard, Michael; Metcalfe, Andrew, 28th International Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Wollongong, NSW, Australia 10/11/03  A Probabilistic algorithm for determining the fundamental matrix of a block M/G/1 Markov chain Hunt, Emma, Mathematical and Computer Modelling 38 (1203–1209) 2003  A philosophy for the modelling of realistic nonlinear systems Howlett, P; Torokhti, Anatoli; Pearce, Charles, Proceedings of the American Mathematical Society 132 (353–363) 2003  An approximate formula for the stress intensity factor for the pressurized star crack Clements, David; Widana, Inyoman, Mathematical and Computer Modelling 37 (689–694) 2003  Method of hybrid approximations for modelling of multidimensional nonlinear systems Torokhti, Anatoli; Howlett, P; Pearce, Charles, Multidimensional Systems and Signal Processing 14 (397–410) 2003  Modelling persistence in annual Australian point rainfall Whiting, Julian; Lambert, Martin; Metcalfe, Andrew, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 7 (197–211) 2003  Optimal mathematical models for nonlinear dynamical systems Torokhti, Anatoli; Howlett, P; Pearce, Charles, Mathematical and Computer Modelling of Dynamical Systems 9 (327–343) 2003  Rumours, epidemics, and processes of mass action: Synthesis and analysis Dickinson, Rowland; Pearce, Charles, Mathematical and Computer Modelling 38 (1157–1167) 2003  SeibergWittenFloer homology and Gluing formulae Carey, Alan; Wang, BaiLing, Acta Mathematica Sinica, English Series 19 (245–296) 2003  Lowdimensional modelling of dynamical systems applied to some dissipative fluid mechanics Roberts, Anthony John, chapter in Nonlinear dynamics: from lasers to butterflies (World Scientific Publishing) 257–313, 2003  On the numerical stability of timediscretised state estimation via Clark transformations Malcolm, William; Elliott, Robert; Van Der Hoek, John, 42nd IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (2003), Maui, Hawaii 09/12/03  Modelling host tissue degradation by extracellular bacterial pathogens King, J; Koerber, Adrian; Croft, J; Ward, J; Williams, P; Sockett, R, Mathematical Medicine and Biology (Print Edition) 20 (227–260) 2003  Modelling nonlinear dynamics of shapememoryalloys with approximate models of coupled thermoelasticity Melnik, R; Roberts, Anthony John, Zeitschrift fur Angewandte Mathematik und Mechanik 83 (93–104) 2003  Modelling the dynamics of turbulent floods Mei, Z; Roberts, Anthony John; Li, Z, Siam Journal on Applied Mathematics 63 (423–458) 2003  Coastal flood modelling: Allowing for dependence between rainfall and tidal anomaly Ahmer, Ingrid; Metcalfe, Andrew; Lambert, Martin; Deans, J, EMAC 2002, Brisbane, Australia 29/09/02  A mathematical study of peristaltic transport of a Casson fluid Mernone, Anacleto; Mazumdar, Jagan; Lucas, S, Mathematical and Computer Modelling 35 (895–912) 2002  Bivariate stochastic modelling of ephemeral streamflow Cigizoglu, H; Adamson, Peter; Metcalfe, Andrew, Hydrological Processes 16 (1451–1465) 2002  Online almostsure parameter estimation for partially observed discretetime linear systems with known noise characteristics Elliott, Robert; Ford, J; Moore, J, International Journal of Adaptive Control and Signal Processing 16 (435–453) 2002  Robust continuoustime smoothers without twosided stochastic integrals Krishnamurthy, V; Elliott, Robert, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 47 (1824–1841) 2002  Fractional Brownian motion and financial modelling Elliott, Robert; Van Der Hoek, John, chapter in Mathematical Finance (Birkhauser) 140–151, 2001  Improved smoother dynamics for discrete time HMM parameter estimation Elliott, Robert; Malcolm, William, The 40th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC), Orlando, Florida 04/12/01  Robust Mary detection filters for continuoustime jump Markov systems Elliott, Robert; Malcolm, William, The 40th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC), Orlando, Florida 04/12/01  Some constructions of small generalized polygons Polster, Burkhard; Van Maldeghem, H, Journal of Combinatorial Theory Series A 96 (162–179) 2001  Statistical modelling and prediction associated with the HIV/AIDS epidemic Solomon, Patricia; Wilson, Susan, The Mathematical Scientist 26 (87–102) 2001  Subquadrangles of generalized quadrangles of order (q2, q), q Even O'Keefe, Christine; Penttila, T, Journal of Combinatorial Theory Series A 94 (218–229) 2001  The modelling and numerical simulation of causal nonlinear systems Howlett, P; Torokhti, Anatoli; Pearce, Charles, Nonlinear AnalysisTheory Methods & Applications 47 (5559–5572) 2001  Formal thickenings of ambitwistors for curved spacetime Eastwood, Michael, chapter in Further advances in twistor theory. Vol. III, Curved twistor spaces (Chapman & Hall/CRC) 117–123, 2001  Hidden state Markov chain time series models for arid zone hydrology Cigizoglu, K; Adamson, Peter; Lambert, Martin; Metcalfe, Andrew, International Symposium on Water Resources and Environmental Impact Assessment (2001), Istanbul, Turkey 11/07/01  Modelling Overflow Traffic from Terrestrial Networks into Satellite Networks Green, David, 8th International Conference on Telecommunications (June 2001), Bucharest, Romania 04/06/01  Modelling Service Time Distribution in Cellular Networks Using PhaseType Service Distributions Green, David; Asenstorfer, J; Jayasuriya, A,  A continuous time kronecker's lemma and martingale convergence Elliott, Robert, Stochastic Analysis and Applications 19 (433–437) 2001  Bearingonly tracking from a stationary platform Sworder, D; Boyd, J; Hutchins, R; Elliott, Robert, Asilomar Conference on Signals, Systems and Computers. Conference Record 2 (1428–1432) 2001  Mathematical modelling of quorum sensing in bacteria Ward, J; King, J; Koerber, Adrian; Williams, P; Croft, J; Sockett, R, Mathematical Medicine and Biology (Print Edition) 18 (263–292) 2001  Information entropy and Parrondo's discretetime ratchet Harmer, Gregory; Abbott, Derek; Taylor, Peter; Pearce, Charles; Parrondo, J, Stochastic and Chaotic Dynamics in the Lakes  STOCHAOS, Ambleside, Cumbria, UK 01/08/99  A brief survey and synthesis of the roles of time in petri nets Bowden, Fred David John, Mathematical and Computer Modelling 31 (55–68) 2000  A new perspective on the normalization of invariant measures for loss networks and other product form systems Bean, Nigel; Stewart, Mark, Mathematical and Computer Modelling 31 (47–54) 2000  Algorithms for second moments in batchmovement queueing systems Hunt, Emma, Mathematical and Computer Modelling 31 (299–305) 2000  Biomathematical modelling of physiological fluids using a Casson fluid with emphasis to peristalsis Mernone, Anacleto; Mazumdar, Jagan, Australasian Physical and Engineering Sciences in Medicine 23 (94–100) 2000  Disease surveillance and data collection issues in epidemic modelling Solomon, Patricia; Isham, V, Statistical Methods in Medical Research 9 (259–277) 2000  Flowing windowpanes: a comparison of Newtonian and Maxwell fluid models Stokes, Yvonne, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series AMathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences 456 (1861–1864) 2000  Length isn't everything  use of the Macedonian sarissa in the time of Alexander the Great Dickinson, Rowland, Journal of Battlefield Technology 3 (51–62) 2000  Maximal profit dimensioning and tariffing of loss networks with crossconnects Bean, Nigel; Brown, Deborah; Taylor, Peter, Mathematical and Computer Modelling 31 (21–30) 2000  Quasireversibility and networks of queues with nonstandard batch movements Taylor, Peter, Mathematical and Computer Modelling 31 (335–341) 2000  The exact solution of the general stochastic rumour Pearce, Charles, Mathematical and Computer Modelling 31 (289–298) 2000  The paradox of Parrondo's games Harmer, Gregory; Abbott, Derek; Taylor, Peter, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series AMathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences 456 (247–259) 2000  When is a MAP poisson? Bean, Nigel; Green, David, Mathematical and Computer Modelling 31 (31–46) 2000 
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